Thirteen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Through Labor Day Weekend, Today Through Next Tuesday -- September 1, 2023

Locator: 45519B.  

GDPnow: yesterday, estimates for 3Q23 dropped from 5.9% to 5.6%. The next reading out later today. Hunch: 5.4%.

• economic numbers today: awesome!
• new jobs exceed estimates: ~190,000 vs 170,000 -- economy on fire
• unemployment ticks up to 3.8%; with rising unemployment and GDPNow dropping, I don't see Fed doing anything in September
• Goldilocks economy

WTI: $85.23. Whoo-hoo!

Tuesday, September 5, 2023: 65 for the month; 267 for the quarter, 512 for the year
39295, conf, Slawson, Banshee 3-1H,
39032, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnity 159-95-31-30-10MBH,
37929, conf, BR, Parrish 3A TFH,
37473, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Saetz Federal 2-36H,
36573, conf, Hess, EN-Kiesel-155-94-1918H-6,

Monday, September 4, 2023: 60 for the month; 262 for the quarter, 507 for the year
39653, conf, WPX, Stratus 14-33H,
39615, conf, Kraken, Gladys LE 29-20-17 11H,
36572, conf, Hess, EN-Kiesl-155-94-1918H-7,

Sunday, September 3, 2023: 57 for the month; 259 for the quarter, 504 for the year
39665, conf, WPX, Cumulus 14-33TFH,
39296, conf, Slawson, Banshee 4-1H,
37936, conf, BR, Boxer 3C TFH,

Saturday, September 2, 2023: 54 for the month; 256 for the quarter, 501 for the year
35472, conf, Oasis, MHA 6-29-30H-150-92,

Friday, September 1, 2023: 53 for the month; 255 for the quarter, 500 for the year
37935, conf, BR, Boxer 3B MBH,

RBN Energy: Examining the odds and timing of a potential RINs price crash, part 3.

U.S. production of hydrogenated renewable diesel (RD), which is made from soybean oil, animal fats and used cooking oil, is growing faster than expected. That may sound like good news for the renewable fuels industry, but it comes with the fear that the rapid growth might push RD production levels well past the mandates set by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), potentially triggering a sudden crash in Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices that — if it happens — would rock the market. In today’s RBN blog, we estimate the likelihood and possible timing of such a market-shaking event.

As we discussed in Part 1 of this series, hydrogenated RD is a type of biomass-based diesel being produced either in greenfield facilities or in repurposed refinery units previously used to make petroleum-based diesel and gasoline. RD has quickly overtaken the other type of biomass-based diesel — FAME biodiesel — in market share. (FAME biodiesel is produced by reacting triglycerides with methanol to make oxygen-containing fuel molecules called fatty acid methyl ester, or FAME.) In fact, RD’s rapid growth may soon bring U.S. biomass-based diesel supply beyond the mandated levels set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). That would be uncharted territory for the fuels market, which has been under the grip of binding renewable fuels volume mandates for 10 years.