If Mexico's output drop sto 1.5 million bopd, that puts its production in the same ballpark as that of the Bakken. And at $40-oil, it's not gonna look pretty. For Mexico.
Link to Julianne Geiger.
Mexico is basing its plans on $40-oil next year (2021). From the linked article:
Mexico will likely cut its crude oil production targets for next year.
The shift in strategy signals that Mexico’s state-run oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), is still struggling under a mountain of debt.
How bad will it be?
Pemex just dropped its production in its largest offshore field, Maloob, by 30.8% year over year, to 276,000 in July, according to IHS Markit. That is down from nearly 400,000 bpd in July 2019 and 460,000 bpd from April 2018—a high for the field.
Although it was understood that Maloob’s production would gradually decline through 2030 as the field depletes, the dropoff was sharper than anticipated.
That output reduction in Maloob brought Mexico’s crude production to 1.54 million barrels per day—a level not seen since the 1970s.
Mexico had targeted more than 2 million barrels per day next year, but this is looking increasingly unlikely.It won’t hit this year’s target of 1.83 million bpd either. From January to July this year, Pemex has produced an average of just 1.692 million bpd.
Much more at the linked article.
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