Sunday, March 22, 2020

Daily Note, Late Morning Edition -- March 22, 2020

Italy: There's a meme out there that one of the reasons for the high death rate in Italy has to do with an aged population. Some say it has the oldest population in the western world, maybe in the world, period, with no qualifying phrase (in the western world). The sources all use the word "Italy" -- grouping a very long, narrow, peninsula as one region. So, I will do the same but I know folks will then say that Lombardy and the surrounding area has a very aged population compared to the rest of Italy. I doubt it. But let's press on.

A reader asked about German and the Wuhan flu. My reply:
Statistics, cases, deaths, case fatality ratio:
  • US: 27,000 / 350 / 1.3%
  • South Korea: 9,000 / 100 / 1.1%
  • Germany: 23,000 / 93 / 0.4%
Germany started seeing cases about a week after Italy went ballistic with numbers.

This age difference statistic may not be holding up. Median age:
  • Italy: 45 years old -- out of control; age-wise? younger than Japan
  • Germany: 47 years old
  • Japan: 47 years old -- at the moment, seems to have things under control;
  • South Korea: 42 years old
  • United States: 38 years old
Bottom line: Italy is not as old as folks are making it out to be.

"Season flu" vs "Wuhan flu," link here:


Government policy made by the CDC. Not good.

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