The following is an e-mail which I sent to a reader earlier this morning based on a number of conversations over the past few days.
Bloomberg's billions to defeat Trump: I don't know if you saw the article, but remember when Mini-Mike Bloomberg said he was going to spend a billion dollars to get rid of Trump even if he (Bloomberg) withdrew from the campaign. It turns out Bloomberg dissolved his super-PAC; gave his paltry $18 million (remember, he spent $500 million on his own campaign) that was left over from his own failed campaign to the DNC for use in battleground states; and, laid off his staffers after telling them months ago he would pay them a high wage/salary through the end of the year.
Mini-strokes for different folks: TIAs as an explanation for Biden's gaffes-- can't
remember his wife's name? Among all the rest of Biden's problems, I do
think he gets so excited, he talks faster than his brain can keep up --
it''s actually quite common among elderly, but even among some of the
younger set -- they want to get an idea out, momentarily block on
something ("tip of the tongue") -- so I think it's simply a combination
of things when he has those moments on stage. But his biggest problem:
signs of pre-senile dementia or, truth-be-told, senile dementia.
Probably not mini-strokes. Even mini-strokes, despite being "mini" have much
more serious signs and symptoms. But if every gaffe was due to a TIA, it would be hard to call them "transient" any more.
"You say tomâto, I say tomāto: JPMorgan Chase --purely coincidental. The other day I was talking about
the difference between and economic recession and an economic depression. The former has a pretty
good definition; the latter, no one agrees on except in very, very
general terms. It is simply said that a depression lasts years and has
an unemployment rate of 20%. That's what I posted based on a financial
site that discussed the difference between recessions and depressions.
Current first time claims for unemployment insurance are about 300,000.
JPM Chase on Friday said this next week unemployment would hit 20% from
the current 3.5%. I'll post the screenshot later today. A 20%
unemployment rate next week will get folks' attention. And 20%
unemployment is one-half of the "depression" equation. The other is
time.
Italy: The Italy experience is fascinating, and no one has offered a good explanation. A new record for a country setting records for weeks: 7,000 new cases in 24 hours and
800 new deaths. France is headed there, Spain probably. It's getting
much worse each day. And yet China and South Korea both seem to have it
under control. For the fourth day, China reports no new cases and no new
deaths in the epicenter, in the Hubei Province or Wuhan city. Italy:
Catholic communion (sharing of sacramental wine); high population
density; oldest population in the western world; public health system overwhelmed from the start; 300,000 Chinese living
and working in northern Italy ("One Belt One Road" initiative with
China); and, a very, very social country. It's a combination of things. When I go
to look at news (last 48 hours) in Italy where Wuhan flu is at its worse
-- Lombardy -- they are still "functioning," in that the region has not
collapsed into Armageddon or chaos. Evidence: in the midst of this, there's an article about how wineries and vineyards are coping. Really?
Frodo: His brother is, all of a sudden, in the news, as a possible answer to Trump in the general election in November. For that to happen, Democrats are going to have change all the rules to
nominate anyone other than Biden. Unless of course, Biden is at least one
delegate short of winning on the first ballot. Then the super-delegates
can choose whom they want. Cuomo, Hillary, Frodo. So, I think we're back
to a brokered convention but if it's brokered, it can only happen under extreme circumstances. See next paragraph.
Re-calculating: Democrat delegate count: 2,273 delegates have been awarded, including two for Tulsi Gabbard.
- Biden: 1,201
- Sanders: 896
- Total to be awarded: 3,981
- Yet to be awarded: 3,981 - 2,273 = 1,708
- 60% of 1,708 = 1,025
- 1,025 plus the awarded-1,201 = 2,050 for Biden
And
if one looks at the states that are left (quite a few actually), I
think under "normal" conditions, Biden would get a lot more than 60% at this point.
There's no way Biden is not going to go into the DNC without a commanding lead and well over 2,000 votes when only 1,991 are needed.
UNLESS.
This
is one way the DNC could stop the Biden train. Because of Wuhan flu,
cancel all remaining primaries (I believe one state did "postpone" its
primary).
Analogy: NASCAR. When NASCAR gets in more than 50% of a race, if the race is halted for an extended period of time, like rain, they call the race at that point. Likewise, due to Wuhan flu, the DNC could "call the race" and take "what they have" to the DNC. The problem is this: of the 1,708 delegates yet to be awarded, which delegates get to go -- Biden's or Bernie's? Obviously you can't invite them all. One possibility: only super-delegates of states who do not hold primaries will go to the DNC convention.That seems fair for a party that wants to get ride of the electoral college.
Analogy: NASCAR. When NASCAR gets in more than 50% of a race, if the race is halted for an extended period of time, like rain, they call the race at that point. Likewise, due to Wuhan flu, the DNC could "call the race" and take "what they have" to the DNC. The problem is this: of the 1,708 delegates yet to be awarded, which delegates get to go -- Biden's or Bernie's? Obviously you can't invite them all. One possibility: only super-delegates of states who do not hold primaries will go to the DNC convention.That seems fair for a party that wants to get ride of the electoral college.
Hillary: re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating. Haven't heard a peep out of her. I haven't seen anything about her podcast either.
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