Two Incredible Statistics -- February 22, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:16 p.m. Central Time: had this been a close race this would have been the story -- what's going on with the Nevada-tabulating app? The caucuses have now been closed for several hours, and only 27 percent of precincts has reported. What's taking so long? Only because Sanders won by such a lopsided margin no one is asking this question. But again, this is extraordinary, how long it's taking for the votes to come in.


Later, 10:33 p.m. Central Time: coming out of Nevada, this is what happens next:

• South Carolina shootout: Biden, Sanders, Steyer -- in that order
• Latino voters will be the surprise voting bloc: Sanders takes Texas and California
• African-American vote incredibly important in South Carolina, but everywhere else, it's all about the Latino/Latina vote -- and Bernie has that vote locked up

Later, 9:00 p.m. Central Time: I'm a political junkie. I can't stand MSNBC. Tonight I find myself defaulting to MSNBC. This is absolutely fascinating. Remember: these MSNBC talking heads were 1000% behind Hillary. They were supremely surprised / shocked that she lost, and subsequently severely depressed, some (most) suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. It appears it is happening again. These MSNBC talking heads are shocked at how well Bernie has done. This was never, never expected. It is a hoot to watch MSNBC talking heads trying to sort this out. And that's why I keep turning back to MSNBC tonight. It will be interesting to see how Rachel Maddow handles this shock Monday.

Later, 8:40 p.m. Central Time: wow, wow, wow -- will anyone hit the 15% threshold except Bernie and Biden?

• Bernie: 46%
• Biden: 24%
• Buttigieg: 14%
• Pocahontas: 9%
• but, think about this: Bloomberg was not on the ballot. Bloomberg would have taken a few votes from Bernie and Buttigieg, but he would have likely knocked out Biden and Pocahontas. 

Original Post

First incredible statistic: Nevada caucuses -- early results show Bernie Sanders taking upwards of 55% of the vote. That is incredible, on so many levels. Bloomberg is so lucky he did not enter this race.

By the way, speaking of Bloomberg, is it just me or do those Bloomberg ads look really, really pathetic now? Before the debate, the Bloomberg ads were "believable." The ads didn't say anything except "Mike can do it," but after the debate one really wonders if the only thing Mike can do is make slick ads. We'll see.

Bernie won (or came very, very close to winning) in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then he delivered a knockout blow in Nevada and will clearly win in South Carolina. He will win California on Super Tuesday, and unlike the other candidates won't even have to campaign in California. While his opponents will have to spend a huge amount of time and a huge amount of financial resources in California, he can spend his time in other states. 

Back on January 31 2020, I wrote:

The California poll, KQED/NPR, 1/25 - 1/27: if by Super Tuesday, we still have seven viable Democrat candidates, it's very, very possible Sanders takes all delegates.

The Super Tuesday states:

Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

Finally:

The excitement in the Bernie camp is palpable. Everyone's eyes are on California. But when you look at the entire list of states voting on March 3, it's hard to believe he will do as well as the Bernie folks think he will. But by Super Tuesday, will Biden, Klobuchar, Pocahontas, Buttigieg, even have the resources to keep going? I'm not sure.

Anyway, that's longer than I had planned.

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Back to the Bakken

The second incredible statistic, which comes from the Bakken, and from a reader in response to this post. This is the comment from that reader regarding all the ethane coming out of the Bakken (a reminder for those who are receiving royalties: natural gas is primarily methane, a one-carbon gas; ethane, propane, and butane are the C2 - C4 gases).

An eerie point in this story that the EXTRA Bakken ethane that needs to be pulled out of the gas (not all of it, just the extra) would be enough to fill a cracker.

https://btuanalytics.com/bakken-gas-quality/. This is an incredibly good article, dated February 11, 2020. I will come back to this one. It's so important that I have archived it.

Later: I have spent the last hour or so trying to sort out this "BTU Analytics" story, and still haven't found what I wanted. A reader that really, really understands this, and really provides me helpful information, put this article into perspective:

Theoretically, a $6 billion cracker could be built in North Dakota and have an almost indefinite amount of 'free' ethane feedstock for decades. 

The qoutation marks surrounding 'free' are only due to the needed processing (fractionation) and piping to this theoretical cracker.

That 90,000 bbld rejected ethane is less than a single Appalachian Basin operator - Antero - rejects every single day.

Meanwhile, India (Gail and Reliance) has started a brand new industry - along with European Ineos - in constructing fleets of massive ships to transport American ethane/ethylene to their new crackers.

Huge new plants going up in Antwerp and in at least two cities in China.

The amount of gaseous hydrocarbons brought to market via this Shale Revolution is simply unfathomable.

I will post this article as a stand-alone post.

 

Richness, GPM, from a "white paper:

Associated gas is produced as a by-product of oil production and the oil recovery process. After the production fluids are brought to the surface, they are separated at a tank battery at or near the production lease into a hydrocarbon liquid stream (Crude Oil or Condensate), a produced water stream (brine or salty water) and a gaseous stream.

The gaseous stream is traditionally very rich (Rich Gas) in natural gas liquids (NGLs).

NGLs are defined as Ethane, Propane, Butanes, and Pentanes and “Heaviers” (higher molecular weight hydrocarbons) (C5+). The C5+ product is commonly referred to as Natural Gasoline.

Rich gas will have a high heating value and a high HDP. When referring to NGLs in the gas stream, the term GPM (gallons per thousand cubic feet) is used as a measure of hydrocarbon richness. The terms “rich gas” and “lean gas” are commonly used in the gas processing industry. They are not precise indicators but only indicate the relative NGL content.

HDP: hydrocarbon dew point --

the water dew point is the temperature at which water vapor will condense to liquid water. The water content in a pipeline is already covered by tariff provisions and is mentioned here for illustrative purposes. Similarly, the hydrocarbon dew point (HDP) is the temperature at which hydrocarbons will begin to condense; hence the expression "hydrocarbon liquid drop out."