A Bit Of Hyperbole? October 14, 2023

Locator: 45783HYPERBOLE.

Link here.

*************************
The Sports Page

Friday, October 13, 2023.

The last time the Buffaloes will play a game on Friday the Thirteenth.

Look at that halftime score.

Local Chevrolet Dealers Are Knocking $10,000 Off The Silverado -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45782UAW.

Thinking "inventory" and UAW strike.

Link here.

Murder In The US -- A Record? October 14, 2023

Locator: 45781B.

Link here.

The United States may be experiencing one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded ... the author is a crime analyst based in New Orleans and co-founder of AH Datalytics.

Not on my bingo card.

Not widely reported.

I seem to get statistics on everything ... so how did I miss this one? 

Wow, look at this lede:

Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022. Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline nationally. But even so, the drop shown in the preliminary data is astonishing.

The good news comes with the caveat that murder is not uniformly falling everywhere. Memphis, for example, has experienced an uptick following the killing of Tyre Nichols in January. Additionally, even a record double-digit percent decline in murder in 2023 would still mean that a couple thousand more people will be murdered in America this year than in 2019. Finally, mass shootings are on the rise even as overall gun violence appears to be falling.

All of that said, the good news is, well, good. Murder is down 13 percent in New York City, and shootings are down 25 percent, relative to last year as of late May.

Murder is down more than 20 percent in Los Angeles, Houston, and Philadelphia. And, most significantly, murder is down 30 percent—30 percent!—or more in Jackson, Mississippi; Atlanta, Georgia; Little Rock, Arkansas; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and others.

Explaining the trend is much more difficult than describing it. The cause of the Great Crime Decline of the 1990s, when murder fell 37 percent over six years, is still not fully understood, so any explanations of the current trend must remain in the hypothesis phase for now.

The national nature of both the surge in murder in 2020 and the apparent decrease this year suggests that national explanations will be more convincing than local anecdotes. Moreover, the factors that caused murder to begin to spike in the summer of 2020 may not be the same factors (now, theoretically, in reverse) that are contributing to its decline in 2023.

It is interesting. It doesn't seem like we've had much civil strife this past summer. Maybe it's just selective memory.

An Old Lime Rock Resources Well In Murphy Creek Shows Some Renewed Activity -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45780B.

The well:

• 18300, 1,562, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 1-33-28H-144-95, Murphy Creek, t2/10; cum 225K 8/14; cum 379K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	2587	2472	3348	1194	701	97
BAKKEN	7-2023	1	0	0	167	10	3	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	9	229	308	229	134	65	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	1129	1121	968	752	424	19
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	1112	1094	931	587	227	60
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1101	1126	946	718	46	365

 Four wells on two neighboring pads (one large pad?)

• 17525, 1,414, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 31-4H, Murphy Creek, t4/10; 294K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	1857	1765	2365	892	493	47
BAKKEN	7-2023	7	0	0	769	32	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	13	434	510	422	338	222	5
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	1200	1168	1212	964	625	26
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	1097	1118	1230	683	325	59
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1222	1235	1160	842	109	419

• 35654, 917, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 5-3-10H-143-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; 256K 8/23; note the high permit number for a well completed back in 2019;

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	3320	3444	9443	1725	1028	270
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	3935	3849	13122	2080	1496	111
BAKKEN	6-2023	24	3476	3360	8956	1655	1132	127
BAKKEN	5-2023	15	2140	2336	6510	1293	0	1050
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	4877	4881	15072	2515	624	1365
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	5421	5484	18706	1943	351	1026
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	5945	5676	18195	1611	1	1046
BAKKEN	1-2023	3	237	259	736	22	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	4	198	407	439	170	142	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	2413	2377	5486	1851	1315	158
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	2091	2054	5383	1602	1243	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	30	2545	2559	6181	2175	1701	98

• 35655, 1,015, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 5-33-28H-144-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; 300K 8/23; note the high permit number for a well completed back in 2019;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	2845	2896	5013	1884	863	614
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	2801	2802	5223	1822	931	482
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	2968	2981	5040	1912	782	719
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	3019	3002	5233	1855	312	1125
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	2916	2891	5089	1708	401	900
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	2803	2808	5174	858	202	250

Change In Fortune In Two Wells Near Williston -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45779B.

The well: : at $50 / bbl back in November, 2022 = $42,000 / month; most recently, 8/23, at $80 / bbl = $280,000 / month.

• 20160, 2,173, Grayson Mill/Statoil / BEXP, Field 18-19 3H, Todd; t10/11; cum 194K 9/16; cum 291K 8/23;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	3413	3430	15357	4246	3137	1109
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	3493	3452	18746	3690	3031	659
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	3633	3591	22951	3540	2325	1215
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	2825	2623	27903	2732	1082	1574
BAKKEN	4-2023	19	1114	975	20538	1096	568	460
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	4	93	386	128	139	106	17
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	844	828	1079	1267	863	280
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	840	796	911	1099	897	82
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	860	1003	1042	1121	945	56
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	856	829	976	992	937	31
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	898	894	1049	1015	986	29
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	843	869	878	913	855	58

The well: at $50 / bbl back in November, 2022 = $12,500 / month; most recently, 8/23, at $80 / bbl = $96,000 / month.

• 19308, 1,235, Oasis, Glover 5601 12-17H, Wildcat/Tyrone, t6/11; cum 137K 12/14; cum 230K 8/23; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	1137	807	2690	1388	1285	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	1208	1428	2725	1627	1508	14
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	1259	1068	3869	1648	747	772
BAKKEN	5-2023	24	1150	1218	2889	1500	734	666
BAKKEN	4-2023	15	151	0	1120	204	0	165
BAKKEN	3-2023	26	527	553	2006	677	371	280
BAKKEN	2-2023	7	0	0	1028	7	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	15	85	0	1526	136	0	90
BAKKEN	12-2022	7	277	591	419	369	151	189
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	247	248	1315	661	478	132
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	834	742	1948	593	355	238
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	497	487	1343	601	320	230
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	597	530	1751	665	446	163