New York Replaces CO2-Emission-Free Nuclear Energy With ..... Fossil Fuel -- April 27, 2022

From Powerline.

This graph might be a bit hard to understand, but ...

In just two years, the share of electricity provided by nuclear energy dropped about 12%.

To compensate for that loss of nuclear energy, faux environmentalists committed to increasing fossil fuels' share by almost exactly the same amount, 12%.

Wind dropped.

Hydro really dropped. 

And, "other renewables, increased ever so slightly. 

Now all we need is the average price of electricity over the last two years. And the amount of fuel oil being provided by Russia. 

Note: this really speaks volumes about politics, special interest groups, the economics of nuclear energy and the economics of renewable energy, the incredible challenge of -- or should we say "impossibility" of weaning "ourselves" off fossil fuel energy when fossil fuel is still so inexpensive compared to the alternatives, and, of course, we can't forget NIMBY when we talk about renewable energy. 

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The Book Page

For the archives.

The books I am reading. 

A couple of these are brand new, reading for the first time, a couple relatively brand new but already reading for the second time. One is very, very old, reading for the third or fourth time.

The Battle for New York: The city at thee Heart of the American Revolution, Barnet Schecter, c. 2002. I've blogged about this book before. I am reading the book mostly to better understand the geography of this part of the country. 

The Rings of Saturn, W. G. Seebald, c. 1995. I recently blogged about this one. I just finished it, and enjoyed it so much, will start reading it all over again. I simply enjoy the writing. It's hard to believe but there's an entire blog devoted to studying W. G. Sebald.

Speak, Silence: In Search of W. G. Sebald, c. 2021. "The" biography of the author of The Ring of Saturn. I have started it but it's long, will be tough to slog through, it's not one of the better biographies I've read, at least so far. 

How The Mountains Grew: A New Geological History of North America, John Dvorak, c. 2021. Bought it "unseen" after reading a review in The WSJ. I've blogged about this one also.

The Last Days of the Dinosaurs: An Asteroid, Extinction, and the Beginning of Our World, Riley Black, c. 2022.  Released yesterday, April 26, 2022; I've just started it. Pop science. Light reading, fun, relaxing. A review over at MacMillan.

Hell's Angels, Hunter S Thompson, c. 1999. Have read several times. Brings back great memories. Not sure if I'm going to enjoy it as much as I've enjoyed it in the past. I enjoy the writing; I don't enjoy the subject any more. But provides a nice look at the 1960's, California, San Francisco. 

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The Movie Page

One thing led to another and before knew it, I was reading the wiki entry for the book / movie, Farewell, My Lovely. I tried locating it on Hulu but it was not available. I believe it aired on TCM within the last month or so, so I thought I would have to wait to see it.

And, then, I thought of YouTube, and there it is. The full movie. Who would have thought. See you tomorrow; I have a movie to catch.

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Sophia -- Pick-Up Soccer

Sophia started playing soccer about three years ago, about age four. Unfortunately Covid-19 interrupted that. But she and I continued to practice. She also practiced a bit with her older sister who plays on the high school varsity team, and who played on the high school team that took "second in state" this past year (2022).

The other day, at a local park, she had a little fun, re-visiting those days. Considering she has not practiced in a long time, I was impressed with her foot work. Also, for those who follow soccer, might see her "presence" on the field as she moves to the guard the goal, early in the video. She picked this up from her older sister.

Enerplus With Four New Permits; Eleven Permits Renewed; EOG Cancels Seven Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- April 27, 2022

Putin's War: Washington approves more US LNG exports for Europe. 

Gasoline demand, link here. To meet / exceed June, 2021, numbers, gasoline demand is going to have to jump about one million bpd.

Earnings released today, of interest:

• AMGN (after market close: forecast; $4.15)
• beat on both top and bottom line
• EPS: reported $4.25 vs $4.13 forecast
• revenue: reported $6.24 billion vs $6.11 forecast
  
• AR (Antero Resources) (forecast: $1.12)
• a loss of 50 cents / diluted share compared to a loss of 5 cents per prior year period
• net income: $1.15 per diluted share compared to 62 cents per diluted share in prior period
  
• Boeing (forecast: -27 cents); stock fell 5% yesterday; today, pre-market today, down 3%;
• EPS: miss; holy mackerel; reported, -$2.75 vs -25 cents; surprise: -1,022%
• revenue: miss; reported $13.99 billion vs expected $15.9 billion; surprise: -12%
• is pausing 777X production; doesn't expect deliveries until 2025
• ramping up the 737Max to 31 / month in the next quarter
  
• CP (Canadian Pacific)
• NSC (Norfolk Southern Corp) (forecast: $2.92); 
• stock fell 2% yesterday; up 2.7% today; up $6.90; trading at $262.53
  
• HES (before market open; forecast: $1.13)
• EPS: pending
• revenue: a huge 15.6% beat; reported $2.37 billion vs $2.05 billion forecast
  
• QCOM (forecast: $2.91) -- see CNBC.
  
• EPS: $3.21 vs $2.91 expected; up 69% y/y
• revenue: $11.16 billion vs $10.60 billion expected; up 41% y/y
• chip sales, $9.55 billion vs $8.86 expected; up 52% y/y
• guidance slightly higher than forecast
  
• F (Ford) (forecast: 37 cents)
• in-line
• net profit dragged down by its stake in Rivian (EVs)
• Rivian stock lost 52% of its market cap during the first quarter
• Ford's stake: was $10.6 billion; now, $5.1 billion
• adjusted loss:
• excluded that $5.4 billion Rivian loss
• net loss, including Rivian: a loss of $3.1 billion
• adjusted EPS, reported 38 cents vs 37 cents
• revenue, reported $32.1 billion vs $31.13 billion
  

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Back to the Bakken

Shale oil: three US shale producers are raising production: CLR, Hess, Matador. 

Active rigs:

$102.00	4/27/2022	04/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018
Active Rigs	37	16	30	64	62

Four new permits, #38903 - #38906, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Fields: Murphy Creek (Dunn County);
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for four MC-Kudrna wells in SWSE 10-144-95; 
• to be sited 222 FSl and between 1525 FEL and 1354 FEL; 

Eleven permits renewed:

• Enerplus (5): four LK-Hamilton permits, and one Madrigal permit, all in Dunn County
• Rimrock (3): three Two Shields butte permits in Dunn County
• Sinclair (3): three Lizzie Rae permits in McKenzie County.

Eight permits canceled:

• EOG (7): five Ross permits and two Burke permits, all in Mountrail County (wow, this has to irritate a number of small mom-and-pop mineral owners.
• Enerplus: one Anole permit in McKenzie County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 35754, 2,548, XTO Energy, Tom State 34X-1A, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  

And What Did The Analysis Show? April 27, 2022

From Fox News:

California lawmakers appear unlikely to pause the annual summer increase in the state's gasoline tax ahead of a May 1 deadline, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said on Monday.

The increase will go from 51 cents / gallon to 53.9 cents / gallon.

I was not going to post the story, considering it "not" news on so many levels, but then I read this, a "cut and paste" from the article:

"California already has the nation's highest gas tax at 51 cents per gallon.

The levy will rise to 53.9 cents per gallon at the beginning of July. Still, an analysis from LAO found it would only save drivers about 3 cents per gallon."

"An analysis"? LOL. It was simple arithmetic:

     53.9

    -51.0

        2.9 cents

That would be about right. About 3 cents less if they didn't increase the tax. I can't make this stuff up. No wonder Californians are in trouble.

Two Big Stories In Social Media Today -- April 27, 2022

BRK: Charlie Munger to announce retirement. This will be his last annual meeting. 

Currency:

• Euro collapsing.
• US dollar surging.
• implications:
• smarter folks than I will weigh in on that
• my thoughts? I will keep them to myself
  

By the way:

• back to BRK
• if Charlie Munger announces his retirement, so will his boss

The BRK notes are simply unsourced comments at twitter. We'll see. 

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Kenny Rogers

The Gambler, Kenny Rogers

A Historic Day For The US -- Out Of The Pandemic -- Fauci -- April 27, 2022

In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. I often mis-read things. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

As you go through this note, remember: the number of deaths -- from all causes -- increased by 20% year-over-year, 2020 over 2019. I think a lot of folks forget that. For me, I easily could have been a statistic but I had two good years with granddaughter Sophia. My wife with several co-morbidities is also a survivor. 

In round numbers from memory:

• the US generally has about 2.75 million deaths from all causes;
• in 2020, the year of the plague, the number of US deaths from all causes, jumped from 2.75 to 3.4 million deaths:
• roughly 30% of deaths from all causes were due to infectious lung diseases
• back-of-the-napkin:
• (3.4 million - 2.75 million)/2.75 million = 24% jump in all deaths, year-over-year into the plague year; deaths from "usual" causes did not increase
  
• (3.4 million -2.75 million) * 0.30 = 195,000 deaths due to infectious lung diseases and almost none of them bacterial pneumonia, leaving a viral pneumonia
• just think how better off we are with all the anti-viral medications coming available!

Before we begin, this from August, 2021:

Now, fast forward to April 27, 2022. Almost two years to the day since the lock downs began. Very similar to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 - 1920. The pandemic is over for the US: Dr Fauci.

I posted an update earlier this morning with much of the Covid news coming out today. There were several takeaways but I won't repeat them here.

What I find most interesting is looking back on the Covid-19 and "seasonal flu" data compiled by the CDC during the last five years or so. 

Wuhan flu. The blog.  Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.  

From the CDC site today.

I think this is the most interesting graphic. Even Sophia, seven years old, with a little help from an adult, could interpret this graph:

Comments:

• hospitalizations due to "influenza" -- laboratory diagnosed; probably does not include Covid-19; simply "seasonal flu"
• for the past seven seasons, 2016 - 2017 to 2021 - 2022 to date, inclusive.
• the year of the plague, 2020-2021: lowest rate ever; absolutely amazing; there will be much discussion over at the CDC on this one;
• current year, to date, is running higher than 2011 - 2012 (but just barely) and higher than 2020 - 2021, but well below all previous years, and by quite a bit
• 2017 - 2018 was particularly bad.

This is my second favorite graphic, influenza- ("flu," "seasonal flu") pediatric deaths:

Comments:

• this is simply phenomenal
• from the 20th week in 2020 (the year of the plague) to the 45th week of the following year, 2021, there was one pediatric death recorded in the entire US associated with influenza; 
• this includes all the undocumented children crossing the southern border, and housed closely together;
• this includes all the kids with severely compromised immune systems, particularly cancer (think leukemia)
  
• during the past winter, it appears there were 20 such deaths in the entire United States;
• none have been reported in the current last couple of weeks
• compare the last "clump" with the two larger "clumps" in 2018 - 2019 and 2019 - the fourteenth week of 2020 (pre-Covid)!

After that, you can scroll through the CDC site and check out the other graphs and charts.

This would be my third favorite: this is all deaths due to pneumonia, influenza ("flu," "seasonal flu"), and Covid-19.

Comments:

• the CDC has separated the deaths by PIC "code" (pneumonia, influenza, Covid-19);
• because many folks question correct coding, let's forget about the specific cause (code) and just lump everything together
• it was the 14th week of 2020 (or thereabouts) when the lock downs began;
• prior to that: three small yellow "clumps": percent of all deaths due to PIC
• look at the small percentage: at worse (2018): 2%
• at best, 2019, about 1%, maybe slightly less
• then, in 2020, upwards of 30% - 35% of all US deaths due to PIC
• imagine had we done nothing -- no social distancing, no masking (early on) and no vaccines (later on) how angry Americans would have been with this data; and having done nothing, it definitely would have been worse, probably much worse (even if social distancing and testing/quarantining) were all we had
• back to specific codes: although one can question the accuracy of diagnosing ("flu" vs "Covid") it's hard to believe the entire US health sector conspired to show so few "flu" deaths that no "yellow" made the chart after the 14th week of 2020
• if this chart doesn't get one's attention, there's no use continuing the discussion.

Think about this. In all my years of practicing medicine, most of the time hospitals had an "occupancy rate" of about 90%. During the "flu" season it was much worse. When I trained at Los Angeles County Hospital -- on par with Cook General and anything NYC has, I assume -- we often "ran out of beds" requiring patients admitted to be on gurneys in hallways. This was not uncommon. And that would have been during periods when deaths from infectious lung diseases were running five percent of all deaths -- I'm amazed the US healthcare system -- hospitals -- in-patient units managed to survive with infectious lung diseases running at 35% of all US deaths.

Without question, "we" learned a lot these last five years: research, diagnosing, treating, public health. We should see some interesting analyses of the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 - 2022. 

My nominee for US Covid-19 health care hero: co-nominees -- the chief nurse and the chief of hospital services at every major hospital across the US: public, private, military, county, city.