Saturday, May 30, 2020

Apple Doubles The Price Of RAM Upgrade On Entry-Level 13-Inch MacBook Pro After Only Month Since Introduction -- May 30, 2020

Earlier I posted a number of Apple, Inc., (AAPL) items. The overall flavor of those items? A "feel-good" feeling. But after posting that, I came across this item: Apple doubles the price of RAM upgrade on entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro. This was abrupt, unexpected, and not met with kindness on social media.


This is a biggie.

This looks like a huge change in thinking at Apple. The new 13-inch MacBook Pro was launched just one month ago. What changed? I can only imagine some contentious discussions in the board room on this new price point.

There can only be three reasons for this increase in price:
  • first, there truly is a shortage of RAM, driving up the price
    • if so, the wholesale price of RAM is trivial, well less than the upgrade price Apple is charging, and Apple is taking advantage of this;
    • if so, the wholesale price of RAM is significant, necessitating the increase in the new retail price by Apple
  • second, there is a demand/supply problem for the MacBook Pro and to either temper demand, or take advantage of the demand, Apple raises the price;
  • third, pure profit motive for many reasons. 
Arguments against:
  • reason #1: it's hard to believe Apple missed that just one month earlier;
  • reason #2: Apple has never been accused of being worried about unit shortages; in fact, Apple is often accused of generating artificial shortage;
Which leaves, the third reason: pure profit.

A little background:
  • the entry level of memory (RAM) is 8 GB
  • the upgrade is 16 GB of memory (RAM)
  • a month after the MacBook Pro was released Apple doubled the upgrade price of 8 GB to 16GB 
  • the "doubling," takes the price from an additional $100 to an additional $200 if one chooses to upgrade
Comments, on pricing:
  • if $100 was "not trivial" for the basic MacBook Pro, $200 for the upgrade is definitely "not trivial."
  • it takes the base model from $1299 to $1499; and the $1499 model to $1699.
Comments, on choice:
  • it's my impression that 90% of folks whose choice is between the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro, the Air is more than adequate
  • for this 90% of users, the price increase noted today is not an issue
  • only the very "high end" users need a MacBook Pro rather than the Air
  • "high end" users will not settle for entry-level-8-GB RAM
  • "high end" users, able to afford the MacBook Pro, can easily afford the "upgrade" price (although they might be a bit miffed)
Apple's cachet:
  • long-term Apple customers know they are paying "up" for the Apple cachet, 
  • many folks suggest Apple is not particularly concerned about charges of "price gouging" or their "luxury tax"
Bottom line:
When I put everything together, I lean toward those who feel Apple raised the price almost purely for reasons of profit. The fact that the price was changed so quickly after introduction of the model -- again, one month -- suggests it has to do with the global economy more than an increase in the wholesale price of storage.
Back to choice:
  • my MacBook Air has 4 GB of memory and 128 GB of storage. The 4 GB of memory seems "adequate," but the base model MacBook Air has 8 GB which is good news
  • without question, the 128 GB of storage I have is not nearly enough and I'm not a heavy user of storage. The good news? The entry level MacBook Air comes with 256 GB of storage. One can double the storage to 512 GB for an additional $200
I apologize for the meandering of this post. I'm listening to the commentary while watching Alfred Hitchcock's Notorious.

Bottom, bottom line:
  • 90% of Apple laptop users don't need the MacBook Pro; the MacBook Air is more than enough;
  • the MacBook Air comes in only one size, 13-inch, which eliminates the size-dimension problem;
  • entry level 8 GB is adequate; although I could be easily convinced otherwise;
  • entry level of 256 GB is more than adequate;
  • having said that, whether to upgrade either memory (8 GB) or storage (256 GB) is a toss-up; both upgrades cost $200;
  • for me, I would upgrade the memory, from 8 GB to 16 GB; one can easily buy external storage, including the "cloud"
  • others may prefer upgrading the storage, from 256 GB to 512 GB for the same amount;
  • upgrading both for $400 significantly increases the price of this entry level Air which is $999;
  • high school senior heading off to college on limited budget: the entry-level MacBook Air; no upgrades needed; and definitely not the MacBook Pro unless one has much experience with the MacBook Air and knows their own needs;
By the way, I don't know if there were any other price increases, but if the price increase only involves the MacBook Pro, to some extent the whole argument is moot (this whole post was unnecessary): Apple was simply aligning the price for memory upgrade across all models.

Jump In Production; Two MRO Wells In Reunion Bay -- May 30, 2020

The wells:
  • 20050, 1,226, MRO, Red Feather USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 387K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
  • 20051, 1,169, MRO, Red Feather USA 21-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 382K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
Production periods of interest:
  • 20051:
BAKKEN11-20193063116305257077466336922
BAKKEN10-201931708370223219904563352187
BAKKEN9-201930119091195910454117319799945
BAKKEN8-20193112584125391398412939012106
BAKKEN7-20193013436134321599913829012938
BAKKEN6-201912363937228888332303081
BAKKEN5-2019178150911027129794607406
BAKKEN4-2019514754129119146801252
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-201943068261913910343
BAKKEN1-201931345444621424359720971061
BAKKEN12-20183138243253171038263280153
  • 20050:
BAKKEN11-201930655965781246819765831106
BAKKEN10-2019319609952842941056172412624
BAKKEN9-20193016159162432023523033189620016
BAKKEN8-20193120435203672058629879028508
BAKKEN7-20193023792237652231834613033011
BAKKEN6-20198289830074751379803602
BAKKEN5-201917985197264210912832012172
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-2019001770000
BAKKEN1-201921117617061721270715362
BAKKEN12-201831177014832971881151771

A CLR Cedar Coulee Carus Well Goes Over 500K In Style -- May 30, 2020

The well:
  • 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; Bakken pool, t8/07; cum 548K 3/20;
The well is followed at this post. It has a very interesting history. Previously posted:
16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee on the scout ticket; has been in production since 2007; not sure why it is on the confidential list; a stripper well as of June 17, 2016; an extended reach single lateral; middle Bakken; drilling target: approximately 27 feet thick, about 9' below the base of the upper Bakken shale; 100% within the drilling zone; spud June 10, 2007; KOP: June 22, 2007; cease drilling/TVD, 11,386.65 feet, July 15, 2007; average background gas -- very, very low, almost nil in much of the lateral; open hole completion, 1 million lbs sand; IP of 508; permit for BR (#16648, Carus 24-28H, Oakdale field, Dunn County; Change of Operator from BR to CLR, February 5, 2008; at that time #16648 still Carus 24-28H. The NDIC map does not show any Carus 24-28H; it appears the scout ticket is wrong --

Random Update Of A Madison Well In Portal Oil Field -- May 30, 2020

The well:
  • 33937, 102, Petro Harvester Operating, PTL2 4-16 163-92D, Portal oil field, target: Madison pool; t3/19; cum 56K 3/20; 
From the well file:
  • 14 stages;
  • 14.2 million lbs
  • horizontal; TD=15,244 feet
  • 30'-target
  • spud: October 13, 2018
  • TD: November 3, 2018
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON3-20203125352063358142437523437938
MADISON2-20202926972784331732256522433132
MADISON1-20203129243126358792188221304578
MADISON12-201931343233204071825887239921895
MADISON11-20193035073397385842050019752748
MADISON10-2019314330475046155215162150412
MADISON9-201930469842804552221421214183
MADISON8-20193152005341505862110120202899
MADISON7-201931616160575110720290161234167
MADISON6-20193075437661535831795417566388
MADISON5-20193178227875572431860718104503
MADISON4-20192536463712321795546550640
MADISON3-20192213565472879014751126349
MADISON2-20190000000

A 50-Fold Jump In Production In A Charlson Oil Field Well -- May 30, 2020

Neighboring wells recently fracked:
  • 13,039 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 21,732 bbls
  • 20,000 bbls / 400 bbls = a 40-fold jump in production
The well:
  • 16711, 297, Petro-Hunt, USA 1D-4-1H, 640-acre spacing; Charlson, t6/08; cum 133K 3/20;
Production period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020311602316117392913422132060
BAKKEN2-2020291902519016459029566360725757
BAKKEN1-2020181303912395461812719012594
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-2019192184364615015
BAKKEN6-201930349204782530253
BAKKEN5-2019313904476028156225
BAKKEN4-2019303945007730419284