Update On Global Coal, Natural Gas Consumption -- October 24, 2014

A reader sent me a number of great articles earlier today. I'm just now getting caught up.

This is an excellent article from Forbes that show graphically how coal and natural gas consumption is growing worldwide. The interesting thing: I first saw these graphs several years ago when I first started blogging. Nothing has changed. Despite all the talk about renewable energy and all the talk about "war on coal" and all the talk about global warming climate change extreme weather ice age now, nothing has changed in the past few years with regard to global consumption of coal and natural gas. Except, I guess, we're consuming more.

The second article is on Saudi Arabia and current glut of oil and the slump in the price of oil:

Within OPEC, only Kuwait (needing a breakeven price of $75), Qatar ($71) and United Arab Emirates ($80) can withstand the current oil price decline along with the Saudis.

However, others would be left sweating. For instance, Venezuela needs the price to be an unrealistic $162. Iran needs $134, Nigeria $126 and non-OPEC producer Russia around $100. Of the four, Russia can withstand the price decline for now, but persistently low prices will start biting.

Compare with my note of October 15, 2014. 

US To Achieve Energy Independence By 2025 -- Wood Mackenzie, October 24, 2014

Link here at Rigzone:

Higher production and lower demand are driving the United States on the path to energy independence by 2025, the first time since 1952 that the nation will export more energy than it imports, according to a recent Wood Mackenzie report.

“A country can achieve energy independence through two channels,” said James Brick, senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “It can either produce more or consume less, and the United States is doing both.”

Over the past seven years, the United States has added 3 million barrels per day of tight oil and 27.5 billion cubic feet per day of shale gas to the world energy mix, a 42 percent increase in U.S. oil and gas production. At the same time, oil demand is decreasing, mainly due to efficiency gains in the transport sector.

U.S. oil production has increased thanks to exploration and production activities in unconventional oil plays such as the Bakken and Eagle Ford as well as activity in the Permian Basin. Crude oil production from the Bakken and Three Forks formations in North Dakota’s Williston Basin lifted the state’s crude oil production to a new record of more than 1 million barrels of oil per day in April and May of this year.

In March, analysts estimated that Eagle Ford production would keep growing through this year. In July, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the increase in Permian oil production since 2007 is positioning the basin as the largest U.S. crude producing region.

The end of the United States’ ban on crude oil exports, higher tight oil production and lower transport sector demand are key uncertainties that could accelerate U.S. energy independence. But energy independence could be stalled by delays in the development of critical export facilities, environmental regulations and energy policies designed to encourage gas to be consumed in the U.S. power sector, Wood Mackenzie said.

In contrast to decreasing oil demand here in the US, it seems that Saudi Arabia's domestic consumption of oil is actually increasing.

Random Update On Enbridge Line 9 -- EIA

From an earlier post:

Enbridge Inc.’s Line 9 reversal project is in its second phase, which is expected to be in service next month. The first phase, which began eastward flows earlier this year, currently enables shipment of crude from Sarnia, Ontario, to North Westover, Ontario.

When completed, the second phase will expand capacity to 300,000 bbl/d and continue on from North Westover to Montreal, Quebec, where the crude could access refineries in Montreal or global markets via the St. Lawrence Seaway.

US Crude Oil Exports Hit 57-Year High -- EIA -- October 24, 2014

Somewhere along the line, the EIA changed their presentation/web pages a bit. I haven't changed my links but when I went to look at "gasoline demand" I see the links take me to a slightly different presentation than what I used to have. Or at least that is what it seems. Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me.

Regardless, I find this weeks EIA's analysis regarding US petroleum fascinating. It begins:

The United States exported 401,000 barrels per day (bopd) of crude oil in July 2014 (the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau), the highest level of exports in 57 years and the second highest monthly export volume since 1920, when EIA’s published data starts. 

Recent crude oil exports are also noteworthy for both their origins and destinations. Typically, crude exports are sourced domestically and are sent only to Canada. However, since April, crude exports have included modest amounts of Canadian-produced barrels that were moved through the United States and re-exported to Switzerland, Spain, Italy, and Singapore.

The graph at the link:

The entire analysis is very interesting. Regular readers are very aware of this development:

Enbridge Inc.’s Line 9 reversal project is in its second phase, which is expected to be in service next month. The first phase, which began eastward flows earlier this year, currently enables shipment of crude from Sarnia, Ontario, to North Westover, Ontario.

When completed, the second phase will expand capacity to 300,000 bbl/d and continue on from North Westover to Montreal, Quebec, where the crude could access refineries in Montreal or global markets via the St. Lawrence Seaway.

When you finish reading that analysis, then I recommend you click on "Gasoline" in the upper right hand corner of that page. When you get to that linked page on gasoline, scroll down to look at two charts. The first chart: gasoline stocks and days of supply. Gasoline stocks are certainly in a better place than stocks of natural gas. Gasoline stocks are well within the 5-year average. Natural gas, on the other hand, trails the 5-year average significantly.

On that same page, then scroll down to the very last graph to see gasoline demand.

Week 43: October 19, 2014 -- October 25, 2014

Operations
Shale oil outlook -- WSJ
Five-year outlook for the Bakken
No end in sight for US shale revolution -- New York Times
November hearing dockets, highlights
November hearing dockets
Active rigs at recent high
Increased density drilling -- the discussion continues

CBR
BNSF will add $1,000/old tank car as a surcharge to push operators to use safer tank cars

Flaring
Update
Tesoro significantly expands presence in North Dakota by acquiring natural gas pipeline and processing business from QEP

Fracking
Random look at some EOG fracking numbers
Operators stockpiling sand

LNG
Another company interested in LNG plants in North Dakota?

Refinery
A refinery in Devils Lake?

Bakken Economy
Full ride for Williams County high school graduates who attend Williston State College
North Dakota Legacy Fund ballooning
Williston pays for "new" jail eighteen years early

Spearfish
Random look at Corinthian, Legacy wells in North Souris, Red Rock