Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Nvidia -- Tech Talk -- January 10, 2023

Themes, 2023

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Medicine: it's all about CRISPR, mRNA.

Information: it's all about semi-conductors, automation, robotics.

For Investors

Investors

Chips: link here. Chips, semiconductor: link here.

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TSMC

Two can play this game. Biden signed the "Chips Act" in 2022. Now, Taiwan did the same thing. Link here.


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Nvidia

By now, folks should have a pretty good understanding of TSM.

Now, Nvidia.

First this, which showed up in my twitter feed overnight.

Ada Lovelace: link here.

Ada Lovelace, also referred to simply as Lovelace, is the codename for a graphics processing unit (GPU) microarchitecture developed by Nvidia as the successor to the Ampere architecture, officially announced on September 20, 2022
It is named after English mathematician Ada Lovelace who is often regarded as the first computer programmer and is the first architecture to include both a first and last name.
Nvidia announced the architecture along with the new GeForce 40 series consumer GPUs and the RTX 6000 Ada Generation pro workstation graphics card.
The new GPUs were revealed to use TSMC's new 5 nm "4N" process which offers increased efficiency over the previous Samsung 8 nm and TSMC N7 processes used by Nvidia for its last generation Ampere architecture.
Note: TSMC 4N process (custom designed for NVIDIA) - not to be confused with TSMC's regular N4 node.

Ampere: link here.  

Ampere is the codename for a graphics processing unit (GPU) microarchitecture developed by Nvidia as the successor to both the Volta and Turing architectures, officially announced on May 14, 2020.
It is named after French mathematician and physicist André-Marie Ampère.
Nvidia announced the next-generation GeForce 30 series consumer GPUs at a GeForce Special Event on September 1, 2020.
Nvidia announced A100 80GB GPU at SC20 on November 16, 2020.
Mobile RTX graphics cards and the RTX 3060 were revealed on January 12, 2021.
Nvidia also announced Ampere's successor, Hopper, at GTC 2022, and "Ampere Next Next" for a 2024 release at GPU Technology Conference 2021.
Note: TSMC's 7 nm FinFET process for A100.

Turing: link here

Turing is the codename for a graphics processing unit (GPU) microarchitecture developed by Nvidia.
It is named after the prominent mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing.
The architecture was first introduced in August 2018 at SIGGRAPH 2018 in the workstation-oriented Quadro RTX cards, and one week later at Gamescom in consumer GeForce RTX 20 series graphics cards.
Building on the preliminary work of its HPC-exclusive predecessor, the Turing architecture introduces the first consumer products capable of real-time ray tracing, a longstanding goal of the computer graphics industry.
Key elements include dedicated artificial intelligence processors ("Tensor cores") and dedicated ray tracing processors (“RT cores”).
Turing leverages DXR, OptiX, and Vulkan for access to ray-tracing.
In February 2019, Nvidia released the GeForce 16 series of GPUs, which utilizes the new Turing design but lacks the RT and Tensor cores.
Turing is manufactured using TSMC's 12 nm FinFET semiconductor fabrication process.
The high-end TU102 GPU includes 18.6 billion transistors fabricated using this process.
Turing also uses GDDR6 memory from Samsung Electronics, and previously Micron Technology.

Texas Grid Is Doing Just Fine, Thank You -- January 10, 2023

Link here.

ERCOT approved almost 654 MW of generation, all renewables, for commercial operation in December, and another 2.9 GW of capacity neared commercial operation, increasing the grid's total operational capacity to 142.6 GW, up 9.1 GW from the end of 2021.

Another 2.5 GW, evenly divided among wind, solar, and battery storage, have signed interconnection agreements and financial security posted with start-up planned by the end of May, according to ERCOT's Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Charts, released January 5, 2023.

Such robust capacity growth would tend to weaken pressure on power prices, and forward traders may already be taking this trend into account. S&P Global M2MS ERCOT North Hub on-peak forward indexes for June, July, and August averaged less than $84/MWh January 6, 2023, compared with an ERCOT North day-ahead on-peak average of more than $124/MWh in June through August 2022. ERCOT North Hub is the market's most liquid pricing location.

From June through August 2021, ERCOT North day-ahead on-peak power averaged $50.60/MWh.

New England: around 32,000 MW (32 GW) vs about 145,000 MW (145 GW for Texas. 

This Will Affect Global Economy; The Most-Under-Reported Story So Far This Year -- January 10, 2023

For two years, folks compared Sweden with Norway, North Dakota with South Dakota, and Texas with New York. They should have been comparing Japan with the rest of the world. What in the world did Japan do wrong?

Answer: Japan went from complete shutdown to "no" restrictions overnight a couple of weeks ago (December 28, 2022, to be exact). Link here. What did they expect? But apparently the Japanese tourism economy was in a death spiral. 

Then: Japan, South Korea changed their minds on travelers from China.

This morning:

Here are Japan's numbers: link here




Boring Tuesday -- Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 10, 2023

Five four things that we've talked about for over a year and nothing has changed:

  • stagflation;
  • the recession;
  • oil to hit $140;
  • Biden will announce to run for re-election
  • Biden has not visited the southern border.

Let's say, inflation comes way down earlier than expected -- those COLAs -- active military, retired military, and social security -- those COLAs are going to look really, really nice. Link here.

RMDs: thank goodness, no Santa Claus rally. RMDs really low this year (compared to last year -- which was a real disaster). But the better news: minimum age raised for taking first RMDs -- "age 73 in 23."

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $74.46.

Natural gas: $3.565.

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:
27880, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H,

Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
38530, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31-2H,
38196, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-7,
37565, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-2H,
36179, conf, BR, George 2C MBH,
27879, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 17-6H,

RBN Energy: why US natural gas liquids production is surging. Archived.

Since the advent of the Shale Revolution way back in 2008, U.S. production of natural gas liquids from gas processing has grown pretty much non-stop, from an annual average of 1.8 MMb/d 15 years ago to 5.9 MMb/d in 2022 — a 9% compound annual growth rate. Today, NGL production exceeds 6.1 MMb/d and that number might be even higher if the glut of supply wasn’t depressing prices and discouraging the recovery of a lot of ethane. All that production has major implications for domestic pricing, upstream economics, midstream infrastructure, and downstream consumers like petrochemicals, not to mention international markets, which now receive roughly 40% of U.S. output. In today’s RBN blog, we examine what’s causing NGL production to continually increase.

To understand what’s going on with U.S. production of the mixed stream of natural gas liquids collectively known as NGLs (ethane, propane, butane, isobutane and pentanes+), it’s important to recognize the relationship between NGLs and the production of crude oil and natural gas — after all, they all come from the same holes in the ground in hydrocarbon-rich areas like the Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford. Because of their common origin, RBN refers to the three commodity streams (crude, gas and NGLs) as the “drillbit hydrocarbons.”

These days, about 80% of drilling in the U.S. is primarily directed at crude oil production, which makes sense because (generally speaking) crude is the most valuable of the drillbit hydrocarbons on a per-Btu basis. Crude doesn't emerge from shale plays on its own, of course — instead, it comes out of the ground mixed with what’s typically referred to as associated gas, a gurgling combination of methane (natural gas), mixed NGLs and various impurities. The composition of this oil/natgas/NGLs stew varies widely, not only between shale basins but within each basin and from well to well — and even within each well over time.

We'll End With This For The Night -- See You Tomorrow -- The "Haves And Have-Nots" -- January 10, 2023