Damn The Torpedoes -- Full Speed Ahead -- CLR With Six New Permits -- October 12, 2022

US oil production: link here -- 

Huge build: 

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large build this week for crude oil of 7.054 million barrels. 

U.S. crude inventories have grown by roughly 28 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by nearly seven times that figure, at 184 million barrels. 

The build in crude oil inventories was made possible by the Department of Energy’s release of 7.7 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending October 7, leaving the SPR with 408.7 million barrels. 

In the week prior, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 1.770 million barrels after analysts had predicted a much build of 1.966 million barrels.

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Back to the Bakken -- In Progress

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $87.09. Large build reported by API. We'll see what the EIA reports tomorrow. If the EIA corroborates the 7-million-bbl build reported by API .... holy mackerel -- Saudi will have to call another emergency meeting. Refiners are sucking up that oil as fast as the Biden administration can release it.

Natural gas: $6.444

Six new permits, #39300 - #39305, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Jim Creek (Dunn County)
• Comments: 
• Skachenko FIU, Skachenko Federal, Meadowlark FIU permits; SESE 31-146-95, Dunn County; 
• to be sited 933 FEL and between 278 FSL and 503 FSL.

Eight permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill (4): four Tufto permits, Williams County;
• Sinclair (4): four Yauch permits, McKenzie County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 38606, 1,441, CLR, Bang 9-4H1, Cedar Coulee, t--; minimal production;
  

What We Will Be Talking About Tomorrow -- SS COLA -- McDonalds -- Big Mac -- October 12, 2022

Two links: both with lots of ads. The second link is probably better:

• nj.com:
• US News.com:

Comments:

• the 2023 SS COLA will be announced tomorrow, Thursday, October 13, 2022;
• will be the highest increase in 40 years
• my estimate: 8.5%
• but it's an election year which could push it to 9.0%
• will be based on 3Q22 data from the CPI-W
• range by analysts: 8.7% to 9.6% 
• highest increase since the 1980s when the COLA was 11.2%
• and, note this:
  

In September 2022, Medicare announced that 2023 Part B premiums would decrease slightly. “Since Medicare costs come out of many people’s Social Security income, the COLA applied to their benefit should be more noticeable,” says Brian Kuhn, a senior vice president and financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group in Fulton, Maryland.

So, whatever your current monthly SS check is, multiply by 1.08 to get an idea of what your new SS check will be. 

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McDonald's

McDonald's Big Mac:

• 2021: $6.05 (February 18, 2022) -- link here. Not stated but this is probably the Big Mac meal.
  
• 2022:  $3.99 (September 5, 2022) -- link here; a meal, $5.99.

From the blog, June 7, 2021:

Inflation. Price of McDonald's "Big Mac" over the decades -- Big Mac alone (Big Mac Meal):

• today, updated June, 2021: $3.99 ($5.99 and for a dime more, large French fries)
  
• 2020s: $4.95 ($7.89)
• 2010s: $4.19
• 2000s: $2.39
• 1990s: $2.45 ($4.59)
• 1980s: $1.60 ($2.59)
• 1970s: 65 cents
• 1960s: 45 cents 

 

• recent prices, February 17, 2021:
• Big Mac: $4.99
• Big Mac -- meal: $5.99
• French Fries: $1.39, $1.79, $1.89  (obviously, if you "move up," skip the medium and go for the "large" for only a dime more)

On my McDonald's App on my iPad right now: still breakfast. Big Mac not yet available for the day. Will check later.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Reports -- October 12, 2022

EIA weekly petroleum report: released tomorrow.

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Auto Supply

Link here.

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Russian Economy Imploding

Link here.

Graph -- Wednesday, October 12, 2022

A lot of mainstream journalists probably don't understand this graph. I'm not sure I do either, but I won't comment further.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- October 12, 2022

EOG: interesting data point but some context needed.

• EOG paid almost $1 billion to settle hedges in 3Q22;
• EOG outstanding shares: 588 million 
• impact per share: $847 million / 588 million shares = $1.44 / share in one quarter
• revenue, June 2022
• $8.69 billion, up 92% year/year
• $8.69 billion / 588 million = $14.80 / share
• $1.44 / $14.80 = 10%
  

Apple, Inc:

• analysts have no idea how many Macs were shipped last quarter;
• iPhone ownership among teens hits 87%, more than double since 2012;

Intel: cutting thousands of jobs to cut costs. Probably corporate / front office, not software engineers.

Retailers: still in disarray. "Wrong merchandise" on the floor. 

• Anticipate huge discounts leading into holiday season.
  

Disneyland: Disney raises prices in southern California theme park. LA Times.

Dividend note: Cardinal Energy Ltd (Canada) confirms new dividend rate for October, up 20% to six cents; yielding 8.6%. 

Politics: Tulsi Gabbard truly confused.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Link: link here.

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $88.97

Natural gas: $6.714.

No wells coming off confidential list today. 

RBN Energy: project eyes using ethanol to make bioethylene, renewable alkylate, SAF, part 2.

In these uncertain times, with the energy transition in flux and a recession looming, it takes moxie for a company to make a major capital investment in an energy-related project, especially one that could arguably be called the first of its kind.

But that’s what’s happening at a site along the Houston Ship Channel (HSC) in Pasadena, TX, where Next Wave Energy Partners, which is now completing an ethylene-to-alkylate plant, is planning an adjoining ethanol-to-ethylene facility that will enable the company to produce bioethylene, renewable alkylate and/or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), depending on market demand, production economics and other factors.

In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ins and outs of Next Wave’s Project Lightning.

In part 1, we took an in-depth look at the company’s 28-Mb/d ethylene-to-alkylate plant — dubbed Project Traveler — which during the coming driving season will start producing pure alkylate, an octane-boosting gasoline blendstock, from NGL-based ethylene.

More specifically, the plant’s dimerization unit reacts ethylene to form butylene, and its alkylation unit reacts isobutane with butylene to form pure alkylate, with no material byproducts. The thinking behind the project is that a combination of NGL production growth and new Gulf Coast ethylene supply — plus increasing demand for alkylate — would be a win-win-win for ethylene producers, refiners and Next Wave itself.

We noted that high octane, low Reid vapor pressure (RVP) and low sulfur content are three of the most desirable qualities for gasoline blendstock, and alkylate (typically produced as part of the crude oil refining process and representing about 15% of the total gasoline pool) has perhaps the best combo of the three.