Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition, Part 2 -- September 18, 2020

Updates

Later, 7:15 a.m. CDT: a reader writes, you may want to clarify, onshore natural gas production and onshore oil production in the United States. Link for crude oil production by state at this link.  

ON FEDERAL LANDS, New Mexico accounts for 30% of US natural gas production and 60% of crude oil production, if I'm staying that correctly. If I'm mis-stating what the reader wrote, I think you can sort it out.

Original Post

Wow, wow, wow. Just when I think I have the energy story of the week, another one comes along to surprise me. 

Why I love to blog: the stories readers send me. 

This is quite incredible on several levels. 

EIA: top story of the week -- the natural gas meltdown.

Michelle Lujan: here, hold my beer.

LOL.

From a reader, thank you so much -- I just knew that waking up at 3:30 a.m. to blog was the right thing to do. From a reader, the townhall, comes this:

Democrat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico has quietly been trying to find a way to evade an energy proclamation by a potential Joe Biden administration. 

Lujan Grisham has been a vocal supporter of Biden throughout his campaign, even making the shortlist of potential vice presidential picks.

She also had the distinction of announcing her state's commitment to supporting Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate during the virtual roll call of the Democratic National Convention. 

Lujan Grisham has also been named to Biden's potential transition team. 

But while the governor appears to be all in for Biden on the surface, his energy proposals seem to have her spooked and looking for a way to be exempt should new laws come to New Mexico. 

Earlier this month, a study suggested that Biden's current stance on fracking, a position he has flip-flopped over and left supporters and critics scratching their heads, would be "devastating" for New Mexico. 

"Restricting oil and gas development on federal lands will rob New Mexico of opportunities for economic growth and hollow our schools of critical resources that put teachers in classrooms and help our young children learn," said New Mexico Oil and Gas Association Executive Director Ryan Flynn. 

Currently, New Mexico accounts for more than 30 percent of onshore natural gas production in the United States and nearly 60 percent of all onshore oil production. Though the prospective Biden administration has been less than clear about their policies on fracking in general, they have been crystal clear that leasing of federal land or waters for the purpose of fracking or any production of natural energy would be strictly banned.

I'm beginning to think a Biden-ban on fracking on federal land would be the best thing that could ever happen! New Mexico recently surpassed North Dakota in daily production of crude oil. About 25% of North Dakota oil comes from federal lands. New Mexico? About 100%. LOL. [Later: see note from reader posted as an update above.]

Joe Biden: make my day. 

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- September 18, 2020

 OPEC basket, link here, $42.07. That was yesterday, I guess. Today, $41.29. About half what Saudi needs to make its national budget. Not gonna happen.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister: I have no idea what the occasion was, but Khalid Al-falfa was on a real roll yesterday, inventing English words -- the longer he spoke, the worse it got -- telling oil traders not to doubt Saudi Arabia's resolve. Wow. Bizarre. 

Russia says global oil production is now well less than consumption. Well, that's good to hear. "We" only have about five years of crude oil in storage. 

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$41.03	9/18/2020	09/18/2019	09/18/2018	09/18/2017	09/18/2016
Active Rigs	11	59	64	56	32

Three wells coming off confidential list -- Friday, September 18, 2020: 130 for the month; 201 for the quarter, 647 for the year

• 37238, drl/NC, Slawson, Orca Federal 8-23-26H, Big Bend,
  
• 36841, drl/A,  Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-8, Tioga, producing, albeit not much yet;
  
• 36117, drl/NC, Hess, GO-Dahl-156-97-2215H-6, Dollar Joe, producing, a nice well;
  

RBN Energy: bidding for oil and gas lease acreage in the offshore GOM. 

In a normal year, the autumn months would be filled with the smell of brisket at a tailgate barbecue and the sound of college football fans cheering in their favorite team's stadium. But with the college football stadiums largely empty due to COVID-19, is there something that could fill the void?

Well, maybe.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) a couple months back issued a notice proposing Lease Sale 256 for oil and gas exploration of 78.8 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). You will probably not be able to find the announcement of the lease sale on ESPN this November, but you will be able to tune into the livestream set in New Orleans. Today, we describe the process for bidding and acquiring lease acreage in the Gulf of Mexico.

RBN is pleased to announce that today’s blog was among the winning submissions in our first-ever blog writing competition held for students in Texas A&M’s Trading Risk & Investment Program (TRIP). For more about the contest and links to other top entries, click here.

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- Including My Favorite YouTube Video Of All Time -- September 18, 2020

Yahoo!Mail. See this note. Wow, the spam filter is really acting up. A lot of legitimate e-mail I should have been receiving in my "in-box" ended up in my spam folder, and now a lot of my spam mail, that regularly ends up in the spam folder, is showing up in my in-box. I'll have to talk to Sophia -- see if she has been messing around with my settings. LOL. 

Sophia: I've always had a fairly "strong" password on my mobile devices but about six months ago, I changed my password on my laptop computers (two) and my iPad to a very, very simple password that Sophia could easily master. So, one wonders what she has been up to. LOL. 

Sophia: by the way, it is amazing how much the human brain fixates on numbers. How good the human brain is when it comes to numbers. Remember the old telephone numbers: area code plus seven numbers. I say "old" because most folks have their important numbers on speed dial or emojjied and can't recall any phone numbers any more. I'm pretty sure millennials are not even aware telephone numbers exist. They say AT&T chose "seven numbers because that was the most numbers the average human brain could remember. [Before that, it as "alpha-numeric" as in Greenfield-6072, or GR-6072; and, of course, before that it was "party lines," and before that it was, "Betty Sue, get me the police department."] What a digression. What I was going to say: Sophia knows the four-digit and the six-digit code to my iPhone and iPad. She knows the four-digit code to our back gate at the apartment complex. She knows the four-digit post office box number. I've taught her none of this stuff; she simply watches what I do and remembers those numbers that give her access to important things in life. LOL. 

Covid-19: by the way, this fixation on numbers explains a lot of the Covid-19 fascination. And, of course, TDS, explains a lot also. 

Speaking of numbers, still my favorite: fact-checked by Brian Williams, Rachel Madcow, and the NYT editorial board.

By the way, Brian Williams could claim he knew this all along, simply stringing his guest out -- he, the straight man; she, the comedienne.

Really Bad Math, Brian Williams

NFL: so was there a Thursday night football game? Oh, this is hilarious. Are you kidding me? Yes, there was a game. Americans -- well, at least some of them -- are starved for sports, live sports, anything, even corn-bag tossing. And what does NFL offer us in "week 2 of 17?" Is this correct? Did this really happen or is this an old screenshot? I googled "NFL last night" and this pops up: Cincinnati Bengals, 30 - Cleveland Browns, 35. I was unaware that either of those two teams was even still around. I have to admit that when I was about twelve years old I had one of those electric football games -- the ones where the platform vibrates and little plastic men move downfield -- and my favorite helmet was the Cleveland Browns. Wow, what a digression. [Our family had no money in those days; how my mother could have afforded that game for me for Christmas is beyond me. Even knowing that I wanted that is even stranger. What a great mother I had. Wow.]

PGA: I can hardly wait to see the Tiger Woods documentary today. He tees off at 1:27 p.m. CDT today. They must be saving the best for last. LOL. The Titanic sets sail at 8:07 a.m. CDT. Speaking of which, I noticed that Phil Mickelson has gone through about three wardrobe changes when it comes to his sunglasses. Most of "this season" he has been wearing aviator sunglasses, but then yesterday I noted he was wearing some Oakley-like square things, and then by the end of the day, when the sun would have been directly in the players' eyes, he had removed his sunglasses completely. I was blown away when about mid-round yesterday, one of the color announcers noted that he was the only player wearing sunglasses, and the banter then moved on to whether there was any need to even be wearing sunglasses in New York this time of year. They're not playing on the beach somewhere. And, as long as I've digressed this far, of all the golfers out there, he has the most non-golf, distinctive attire. I assume he has a clothing contract with some blue jeans company. And sunglasses.

 

4:42 a.m. -- time for coffee. 

Was It Something I Said? A Note To A Reader -- Septermber 18, 2020

All of a sudden, about a week ago (actually I can pinpoint the exact moment, if necessary) I quit receiving e-mail from one of my most faithful readers and cleverest writers. It's because of that reader some of my best posts show up on the blog. 

But then, all of a sudden, the e-mail stopped. I assumed it was something I said. It was devastating. I wracked my brain, trying to figure it out. I had an idea but I thought, "no, are you kidding?" But it's bothered me for over a week. I was going to post a blog, "Was It Something I Said?" and then thought that was a bit inappropriate so I let it be.

This morning, about 3:00 a.m. I woke up realizing I had completely forgotten that it was Thursday night last night, and I must have missed the Thursday night football game. I'll check that later. But then I got distracted, curious where Phil Mickelson finally ended up on the "PGA leaderboard today." (Spoiler alert: not good.)

And, then, I have no idea why I checked, but for some reason I checked my "Spam" folder. I haven't checked that folder in ages. OMG!

The reader's notes -- and there are a lot of them ended up in that folder. OMG! I'll be up all night catching up. 

Oh, that's right -- now I remember how that happened. I accidentally transferred one of my daughter's notes regarding Sophia into that folder, and immediately went to the folder and moved it back to the "in-box," and that's when I discovered a dozen (or more) of the reader's e-mails in the spam folder. I spent a fair amount of time getting them all moved back to the "in-box" and now the pleasure of going through them.

What surprises me though -- is that I personally answer 99% of all my e-mail, and I answer 99.99% of this reader's e-mail. The reader must have thought the same thing, "Was It Something I Said?"

I'm impressed the reader hung in there, never giving up. The most recent e-mail was last night after my long post on Sophia making pancakes.

Wow, I am so sorry.

Anyway, it's all sorted out. Now, I have to start reading all those e-mails. I won't answer most of them this time: too many to answer  and many of them are "water under the bridge," as they say.

The Story Of The Week -- Natural Gas Fill Rate -- September 18, 2020

Link here. 

At S&P GLobal Platts: US working gas volumes in underground storage rise by 89 Bcf. Build significantly exceeds market expectations. Henry Hub futures selloff focuses on October, November.

The injection was significantly higher compared with S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 77 Bcf build. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 68 Bcf to 80 Bcf. The injection was also more than the 82 Bcf build reported during the same week last year and 12 Bcf above the five-year average gain of 77 Bcf, according to EIA data.

Storage volumes now stand 535 Bcf, or about 17%, above the year-ago level of 3.079 Tcf and 421 Bcf, or 13%, higher than the five-year average of 3.193 Tcf.

All over twitter yesterday:

• so much for the recent bullishness on natural gas;
• bloodbath at the OK Corral; US Gulf storage will test capacity limits soon;

SeekingAlpha: Cameron LNG could stay off line through October -- Sempra --

• Sempra still has not said whether the terminal's on-site connections were damaged by the hurricane, or if there was other damage that could take longer to repair before full production can resume.