Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 10, 2020

Monday, August 17, 2020: 54 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 571 for the year:

• 37075, conf, BR, Cleofill 1C,
• 36351, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-6,
• 36158, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-2,
• 36109, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 44-23TFH-ULW,

Sunday, August 16, 2020: 50 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 567 for the year:

• 37074, conf, BR, Cleofill 1B,

Saturday, August 15, 2020: 49 for the month; 120 for the quarter, 566 for the year:

• 37073, conf, BR, Cleofill 1A,
• 36110, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 34-23MBH-ULW,
• 33929, conf, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2,

Friday, August 14, 2020: 46 for the month; 117 for the quarter, 563 for the year:

• 36980, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 8-23H1,
• 36111, conf, BR, Outlaw Gap 44-23TFH,

Thursday, August 13, 2020: 44 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 561 for the year:

• 35895, conf,  Whitign, Rasuer 22-29H,
• 35722, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 42-33 7B,
• 35597, conf,  Enerplus, Cumulus 149-94-33C-28H,
• 26970, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26E,

Wednesday, August 12, 2020: 40 for the month; 111 for the quarter, 557 for the year:

• 36981, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 7-23H, 
• 36744, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, 
• 36421, conf,  Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, 
• 36350, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-5, 
• 36159, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-3, 
• 35721, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 4B, 
• 35600, conf, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF,
  
• 35599, conf,  Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, 
• 35598, conf, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF,
  

Tuesday, August 11, 2020: 31 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 548 for the year:

• 36727, conf, CLR, Marshall 8-24H, 
• 35859, conf,  Newfield, Kummer 149-98-2A-11-3H, 
• 35894, conf,  Whiting, Rauser 11-29-2H, 
• 33930, conf, CLR, Holstein Federal 14-24H2,
  

Monday, August 10, 2020: 27 for the month; 98 for the quarter, 544 for the year:

• 36982, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman 6-23H1, Long Creek,
  
• 36746, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte, t--;
  
• 36745, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26EXH, Heart Butte, t-- ;
  
• 35719, SI/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 3TX, Banks, t--; cum 89K 4 months; a 25K month;
  
• 35858, drl/A, Newfield, Kummer 149-83-3-10-10HLW, Pembroke, no production;
  

Sunday, August 9, 2020: 22 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 539 for the year:

• 36747, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C,  Heart Butte, 
• 36728, drl/A, CLR, Marshall 7-24H1, Little Knife, t--; cum 26K 2 months;
  
• 36420, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, t--; cum 84K 4 months; a 35K month;
  
• 35857, drl/NC, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, Pembroke,
  

Saturday, August 8, 2020: 18 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 535 for the year:

36983, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-23H1, Long Creek,

The Sturgis Rally: A Most Interesting Science Experiment -- August 10, 2020

 As I mentioned earlier, I don't follow the coronavirus story very closely any more. As I said earlier:

I track the coronavirus story here but I don't update it very much any more. I lost interest in this story when:

• I realized they were tracking the wrong metric;
• I learned the CDC's "definition of a case" which may or may not be the same definition that all states are using;
• the issue moved from the science/medical arena to the political arena
• I realized the whole reporting / analysis was a bunch of nonsense

There is now a new wrinkle. I don't know if folks realize this. Except for a few states, the rate of rise in the number of new cases of Covid-19 being reported is slowing. And this is at a time when the number of Covid-19 tests being accomplished are increasing significantly.

Isn't that interesting? 

I would argue that the most interesting "science experiment" is now happening in South Dakota. Hopefully, the number of cyclists expected to show up actually show up. In round numbers, "they" say the normal number of cyclists that show up for the Sturgis Rally is 500,000. This year "they" estimate it will be closer to 250,000. 

It will be interesting to see the number of cases of coronavirus that South Dakota will report starting two weeks from now and going for another four weeks after that. 

In fact, one can argue that not only is this the most interesting "science experiment" going on right now, it may just be one of the most important "tests" that we could possibly have. We had a similar "test" in the early days of the pandemic here in the states when the governor of New York actively returned those with active disease back to their own nursing homes. With the data he had at the time, I probably would have done the same thing. Governor Cuomo's heart was in the right place, but unfortunately, we learned who was most vulnerable (of course, that was not surprising; that's true for seasonal flu also). 

We have no idea how many folks have now had asymptomatic Covid-19. So, if we don't see a spike in new cases four weeks from now, despite the Sturgis Rally, we will have another data point. 

I'm unaware of the CDC taking advantage of the data that could come out of the Sturgis Rally. If, in fact, the CDC is not proactively taking advantage of this science experiment, they are letting us down.

By the way, we are being told that similar large crowds, albeit much smaller, have not resulted in a surge of coronavirus cases. I'm talking about the riots / demonstrations in Seattle, Portland, and Chicago. 

Apparently These #BlackLives Don't Matter -- August 10, 2020

A reader caught this story. I would have missed it. Thank you.

Earlier this month, it was noted that Marathon would be closing two refineries, including its fourth-largest refinery which happens to be located in the San Francisco Bay area. We posted that story here. 

The first think I thought of was the number of good-paying jobs that would be lost. I didn't have time to write about it nor could I have written anything as good as the article as IceAgeNow. Link here.

Marathon Petroleum recently announced it will “indefinitely idle” its Martinez Refinery. The decision will remove hundreds of jobs, billions of dollars, and nearly 7 million gallons of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum liquids per day from the energy-hungry California economy. 

It will also send fuel prices even higher for minority and other poor families that already pay by far the highest gasoline prices in the continental United States: $1.32 more per gallon of regular than in Louisiana and Texas. California’s green and political interests don’t want drilling or fracking, pipelines, or nuclear, coal or hydroelectric power plants – or mining for the materials needed to manufacture electric cars. They prefer to have that work done somewhere else, and just import the energy, cars and consumer goods. 

They’ve long wanted a totally electric vehicle (EV) fleet, which they claim would be clean, ethical, climate-friendly and sustainable. Of course, those labels hold up only so long as they look solely at activities and emissions within California state boundaries – and not where the mining, manufacturing and electricity generation take place. That kind of “life cycle” analysis would totally disrupt their claims.

I had forgotten about higher costs for those who can least afford it and I would argue, those lives matter, also.

It's a long article, but a great article. It's such a great article, I will archive it so it's not lost.

Unfortunately, the writer is preaching to the choir. 

Distillate Volumes -- Random Update -- Why Are Distillate Fuel Inventories So Hig? -- August 10, 2020

 Back in late July, these were the top stories of the week:

• Chevron buys Noble Energy; and, here; is OXY next?
• US distillate fuel inventories;
• #BLM erasing the Native American;
• Eldorado Resorts, Inc. is now the world's biggest casino company;
• Israeli target practice;

The US distillate fuel story is still with us. This graphic was posted August 8, 2020:

US distillate inventories:

 Last night, Focus on Fracking:

The EIA reported 1,418,000 more barrels ​of oil production ​per day in May than was actually produced; natural gas prices rose by most in any week since 2009; distillates supplies at ​a third straight 38 year high; oil rig count now lowest in 15 years.

...at the same time, our refineries' production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 126,000 barrels per day to 4,909,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 20,000 barrels per day over the prior week

... after this week's increase in distillates output, our distillates' production was 7.1% less than the 5,286,000 barrels of distillates per day that were being produced during the week ending August 2nd, 2019

.... similarly, with the increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels increased for the fifteenth time in 29 weeks and for the 20th time in 44 weeks, rising by 1,591,000 barrels to another 38 year high of 179,977,000 barrels during the week ending July 31st, after our distillates supplies had increased by 503,000 barrels over the prior week

....our distillates supplies rose again this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 65,000 barrels per day to 3,700,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates fell by 111,000 barrels per day to 1,113,000 barrels per day while our imports of distillates fell by 17,000 barrels per day to 131,000 barrels per day...after this week's inventory increase, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were 30.9% above the 137,451,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on August 2nd, 2019, and about 27% above the five year average of distillates stocks for this time of the year...

*******************************
Why Are Distillate Volumes So High Right Now?

Which reminds me. When this was first being reported, I asked the question why might distillate fuels being rising so much? This might be complicated to follow my thought process on this but I bet I'm correct.

When we lived in Germany, we heated our house with heating oil. We learned that the Germans bought they heating oil and filled their tanks in the summer when prices were lowest. When the weather started turning cooler, and in the dead of winter, distillate fuel prices rose astronomically. Those with the extra money during the summer were able to fill their tanks. And folks tried estimating how much they would need to get through the winter.

Now, with so many folks laid off, especially in the New England and northern Atlantic states, my hunch is that a lot of folks don't have the cash to buy heating oil that they will not need until November or December, or later.

Likewise, if restaurants, bars, and other mom-and-pop retail establishments are shut down, there is probably little incentive to fill the heating oil tanks during the pandemic.

Exports have also dropped, and that would be for the same reason. Folks without jobs, without money, can't buy heating oil right now, here in the states, or overseas.

Another One Bites The Dust -- August 10, 2020

 This is so cool. This is why I love to blog. 

I posted this about ten minutes ago:

I track the coronavirus story here but I don't update it very much any more. I lost interest in this story when:

• I realized they were tracking the wrong metric;
• I learned the CDC's "definition of a case" which may or may not be the same definition that all states are using;
• the issue moved from the science/medical arena to the political arena
• I realized the whole reporting / analysis was a bunch of nonsense

Now, this from social media, breaking while I was posting the above. First, it was Chow Mein, now Sonia Angell:

That's the governor in the background, probably thinking about his state's bullet train.

And from a google search --- 

As I said earlier, the reporting and analysis is a bunch of nonsense.

By the way, it's not often that a governor fires someone in a position like this faster than President Trump fires someone.