Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 21, 2020

The wells:

• 37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, Elm Tree,
• 36888, conf, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish, 
• 36887, conf, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, 
• 36785, conf, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2020	17458	12068
3-2020	27494	2905
2-2020	29536	406
1-2020	24498	5757
12-2019	0	354

•   35666, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, Poe,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	17012	14752	17313	27999	27297	255
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	26146	23187	22440	49436	47920	1055
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	31473	27626	26566	52431	46868	5130
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	48720	43996	43146	79942	11925	67555
BAKKEN	12-2019	1	50	47	260	74	4	55
BAKKEN	11-2019	3	0	0	10392	45	0	0

• 37049, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H, Elm Tree, 
• 37050, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, Elm Tree, 
• 35673, conf, CLR, Boise 8-24H, Brooklyn,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2020	22773	50922
3-2020	37029	68960
12-2019	158	0

• 35658, conf, CLR, Addyson 10-23HSL1, Brooklyn,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2020	13669	33031
3-2020	25991	45286
2-2020	24298	48807
1-2020	10490	19356
12-2019	605	0

• 37051, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, Elm Tree, 
• 26415, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, -- look how old this permit is; Otter, 
• 37052, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree, 
• 36873, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XW 1H, Alger, 
• 36791, conf, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte, 
• 37053, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 14-9HSL1, Elm Tree, 
• 26417, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B, -- look how old this permit is; Otter,
• 37202, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 10-9-4-157N-99W-LL TFH, Lone Tree Lake, 
• 36874, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 XW 1H, Alger, 
• 37055, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 12-9H, Elm Tree,
• 37056, drl/drl, CLR, Angus Federal 11-9H2, Elm Tree,  
• 36875, drl/TASC, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 4H, Alger, 
• 35958, conf, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-3XH, Sanish,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	14	4587	4708	666	3211	3117	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	28	15175	15128	3108	10827	10540	23
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	22045	22319	6099	14771	14486	23
BAKKEN	1-2020	30	27139	26882	14799	16954	11897	4752
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	6059	5934	18241	3880	0	3685
BAKKEN	11-2019	16	0	0	6862	0	0	0

• 35676, SI/A, CLR, Boston 8-25H, Brooklyn,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	25	29992	30044	33764	67401	65571	1794
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	28245	28027	29279	38197	35843	2314
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	3	453	453	1683	292	0	268

• 37057, drl/drl, CLR, Angus Federal 10-9N, Elm Tree, no production data, 
• 36876, drl/TASC, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 9H, Alger, no production data, 
• 35668, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 4H, Poe, 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	17042	14777	15775	35779	35142	190
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	27953	24790	23985	28780	28091	227
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	39879	35005	30555	61056	55650	4974
BAKKEN	1-2020	26	33713	30444	30641	61976	1136	60453
BAKKEN	12-2019	15	20066	18876	24963	41697	2855	38618
BAKKEN	11-2019	1	0	0	2620	15	0	0

• 37058, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 9-9H, Elm Tree, no production data, 
• 35677, SI/A, CLR, Boston 9-25H1, Brooklyn,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	23	17889	17972	38901	39141	38066	1042
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	23511	23329	43809	56371	52914	3417
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	4	214	214	1616	32	0	0

• 35674, SI/A, CLR, Boise 0-24H1, Brooklyn,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	24	15052	15143	27101	35295	34322	939
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	22565	22391	37082	53244	49975	3227
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	4	434	434	625	32	0	0

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 21, 2020

Tuesday, June 30, 2020: 73 for the month; 218 for the quarter, 445 for the year:
37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, 
36888, conf, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, 
36887, conf, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, 
36785, conf, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, 
35666, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, 

Monday, June 29, 2020: 67 for the month; 212 for the quarter, 439 for the year:
37049, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H, 

Sunday, June 28, 2020: 66 for the month; 211 for the quarter, 438 for the year:
37050, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, 

Saturday, June 27, 2020: 65 for the month; 210 for the quarter, 437 for the year:
35673, conf, CLR, Boise 8-24H, 
35658, conf, CLR, Addyson 10-23HSL1, 

Friday, June 26, 2020: 63 for the month; 208 for the quarter, 435 for the year:
37051, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, 
26415, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, -- look how old this permit is; 

Thursday, June 25, 2020: 61 for the month; 206 for the quarter, 433 for the year:
37052, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, 
36873, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XW 1H, 
36791, conf, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, 

Wednesday, June 24, 2020: 58 for the month; 203 for the quarter, 430 for the year:
37053, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 14-9HSL1,
26417, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B, -- look how old this permit is;

Tuesday, June 23, 2020: 56 for the month; 201 for the quarter, 428 for the year:
37202, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 10-9-4-157N-99W-LL TFH,
36874, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 XW 1H,

Monday, June 22, 2020: 54 for the month; 199 for the quarter, 426 for the year:
37055, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 12-9H,  

Sunday, June 21, 2020: 53 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 425 for the year:
37056, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 11-9H2, 
36875, conf, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 4H, 
35958, conf, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-3XH, 
35676, conf, CLR, Boston 8-25H, 

Saturday, June 20, 2020: 49 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 421 for the year:
37057, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 10-9N, Elm Tree,
36876, conf, Equinor, Domaskin 30-31 9H, Alger,
35668, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 4H, Poe, 

Friday, June 19, 2020: 46 for the month; 191 for the quarter, 418 for the year:
37058, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 9-9H, Elm Tree,
35677, conf, CLR, Boston 9-25H1, Brooklyn,
35674, conf, CLR, Boise 0-24H1, Brooklyn,

Notes From All Over -- Midday Edition -- Sunday, June 21, 2020

Backwardation: came sooner than expected -- HFIR via SeekingAlpha. A reader once warned me that HFIR had a poor track record. I'm beginning to think so. From the link:

• Brent 1-2 is now in backwardation.
• This is sooner than what we had expected (month-end) and much sooner than anyone else in the market had expected.
• Backwardation will start the process of inventory rebalancing. Excess crude on water needs to be drained first, then we will see onshore inventories decline in size.
• US crude storage will start to move lower starting next week with larger draws in July and onward. Right now, the US is absorbing the excess crude from Saudi's supply surge in April.
• The oil market rebalance will be bearish for tankers and bullish for oil producers.

Geico Rock Award nomination: Julian Lee, Bloomberg Opinion -- Buyer Beware: Oil Stockpiles are Enormous. Well, duh.

From the link:

Remember negative oil prices and the fear that every storage tank on the planet would get filled to the brim? That seems a long time ago, with West Texas Intermediate crude now hitting $40 a barrel and the buildup of stockpiles poised to go into reverse. The warning sent by that trip below zero was heeded. Oil production was slashed and the crisis averted.

But if you were hoping for a quick, V-shaped recovery in oil demand, look away now.
The International Energy Agency published its latest oil market outlook last week, pushing its quarterly forecast out to the end of 2021 for the first time. It doesn’t think demand will have fully recovered by then. 

In the final quarter of next year it predicts global oil demand will still be running about 2 million barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels, and more than 4% below where it might reasonably have been expected to be in the absence of the crisis.

No free lunch: Disney+ no longer offering free one-week trials. Why? The much-anticipated Hamilton will be premiered on July 3, 2020. Wow. It's being released more than one year ahead of schedule -- no doubt to counter the revenue lost from shutdown theme parks. Wow.

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Water Polo Practice -- Texas Style

This is so cool. The Grapevine Lake is huge, and just ten minutes up the road from us. This past week, the coach took the team out to the lake to practice. They practiced in a very, very small inlet, open to the public. Out where they were playing the water was well over ten feet deep. The coach had three kayaks, one not being used, and offered it to me. I had a blast. Even took the iPhone out to film the action.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #24 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- June 21, 2020

Updates

July 8, 2020: I was really, really wrong on this one. I thought it was a huge mistake for Dak Prescott to "hold out" during a Covid pandemic and the risk he was taking "waiting." But, here we are: Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes signs a ten-year, one-half-billion-dollar contract. This raises the floor for Dak -- one week before the July 15, 2020, signing deadline.

Original Post 

Not long ago, I suggested the most important story of the week was the "Dak Prescott" story. It took awhile, but the sporting press is starting to report what I thought might happen.

On June 6, 2020, I wrote:

Dak Prescott: on May 26, 2020, I said this was the most important story of the week. I was trolling; no one took the bait. But this is what I was thinking, reported now over at The Dallas Morning News six days ago: a season without fans could affect Dak Prescott's contract with the Cowboys "tremendously."

If by July 15, 2020, it is clear that the season will start on time with fans in the stands, no restrictions, Dak will likely get the contract he wants. But, and it's a huge "but," if it looks like the season could be delayed (unlikely) and there are questions about how to manage the stadiums (likely), the Cowboys might be holding a better hand, at least with regard to contract negotiations.

Well, today, here it. Salary caps historically keep increasing, benefiting star players like Dak Prescott. However, salary caps only increase if the total NFL profit increases. There is now talk that Covid-19 will significantly impact revenue for the 20-21 season. If it does, it will significantly impact salary caps going forward.

Dak Prescott, or better said, his agent, were betting on the come. That in the out-years, the salary cap would be much greater than it is today, and therefore, Dak should sign a "shorter" contract -- four years preferably, whereas the Cowboys were said to want a full five years.

All of a sudden, all that talk about an ever-increasing salary cap is coming under question.

And that's not all. If Dak were to test positive for Covid-19, how might that affect negotiations? From The Dallas Morning News:

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The Literature Page 

This is the book that will be my reading for the next couple of weeks. It's a long, long story how I found it, but suffice it to say it began when I got back into my Out of Africa phase.

Notes From All Over -- The Late Nigjht Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Saturday, June 20, 2020

Saudi Aramco will maintain dividends despite huge hit to its income 1Q20:

• CNBC, June 18, 2020;
• may issue bonds to cover $75 billion dividend, Bloomberg via Oilprice, June 18, 2020;
• as part of Aramco IPO they guaranteed a $75 Billion yearly dividend payments for 5 years;  

Here we go again: underinvestment could send oil prices soaring, Oilprice, June 17 2020;

Housing boom in suburban New Jersey: we talked about this before; how the pandemic may change the housing market.

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The Literature Page

From wiki tonight, an important "phrase" that the granddaughters should know -- "the Mandarins."

The Mandarins (French: Les Mandarins) is a 1954 roman à clef by Simone de Beauvoir, for which she won the Prix Goncourt, awarded to the best and most imaginative prose work of the year, in 1954. The Mandarins was first published in English in 1956 (in a translation by Leonard M. Friedman).

The book follows the personal lives of a close-knit group of French intellectuals from the end of World War II to the mid-1950s.

The title refers to the scholar-bureaucrats of imperial China. The characters at times see themselves as ineffectual "mandarins" as they attempt to discern what role, if any, intellectuals will have in influencing the political landscape of the world after World War II.

As in de Beauvoir's other works, themes of feminism, existentialism, and personal morality are explored as the characters navigate not only the intellectual and political landscape but also their shifting relationships with each other.

The British novelist and philosopher Iris Murdoch (in the Sunday Times) described The Mandarins as "a remarkable book, a novel on the grand scale, courageous in its exactitude and endearing because of its persistent seriousness."