There were reports that the Keystone (not the XL) pipeline was flowing again, but the sources were not sources with which I was familiar. But today, Reuters is reporting that the Keystone (not the XL) pipeline is now flowing again, albeit at reduced pressures.
The last I heard was that TC Energy had not yet identified the source of the leak and this most recent article does not shed any light on that.
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 10, 2019
Beautiful, beautiful day in DFW, Texas, area today. Cold front to hit tomorrow. Standing-room only in Starbucks. Seconds after writing that, another long line of folks showed up. The number of toddlers accompanying parents is fascinating ... the new "Dairy Queen" for Texans. LOL.
Tusk, Fleetwood Mac
That should be the UCLA fight song. Fleetwood Mac is so "UCLA." Compared to the USC Fight Song, the UCLA fight song is so lame. LOL. Wow, I'm going to get a lot of flack on that one. My wife is a graduate of UCLA? Me? USC.
A lot of history in this song, by the man who wrote it:
Walking in Memphis, Marc Cohn
Later, 6:26 p.m. CT: a couple of hours after posting the note below, this from the Financial Times:
The market. If AAPL ever starts trading like a "consumer staple," watch out --
The market: I've said this before ... see disclaimer below -- for those with a long horizon, say 20 years, this is an incredibly great time for picking up some incredibly "cheap" energy stocks. For shale operators, operators in the Bakken are now benefiting from full-cycle pricing to half-cycle pricing; for operators in the Permian, in general, they are not quite there yet but they will get there more quickly than the Bakken operators did. Idle chatter. Getting way ahead of my headlights.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
That should be the UCLA fight song. Fleetwood Mac is so "UCLA." Compared to the USC Fight Song, the UCLA fight song is so lame. LOL. Wow, I'm going to get a lot of flack on that one. My wife is a graduate of UCLA? Me? USC.
A lot of history in this song, by the man who wrote it:
********************************
Apple
Updates
Later, 6:26 p.m. CT: a couple of hours after posting the note below, this from the Financial Times:
Apple has piled on more than $400bn of market capitalisation so far this year, even as its profit margins fade and its new iPhone failed to wow analysts. The increase in its equity value since January comes to $407bn: almost as much as the entire market capitalisation of JPMorgan Chase, America's biggest bank by assets. The higher price nudges Apple ahead of Microsoft — which itself is up 44 per cent — to regain the title of the world's most valuable listed company, worth $1.16tn.
Original Post
- Procter and Gamble, PG, P/E: 75.76 (no typo)
- Apple, Inc, AAPL, P/E: 21.88 (no typo)
- currently:
- Apple, Inc: earnings: 11.89
- AAPL: price: $260
- P&G multiple pricing for AAPL, 75.76 x 11.89: $900.79.
- Note: it was not me who first noticed this; brought to my attention by a "Fast Money" trader
- even KO (Coca-Cola) trades at a 30-multiple
- and it should be noted that the Jul-Aug-Sept quarter for Apple, Inc., is historically much worse than its "holiday" quarter; link here to fact check;
- "holiday" quarter one year ago was 44% better than the preceding quarter
- "holiday" quarter two years ago was 88% better than that quarter's preceding quarter
- so, let's say, this "holiday" quarter is 60% better than the most recent quarter, then we get an earnings of $4.85 for the Oct-Nov-Dec-2019 quarter (consensus is $4.53)
- for the 12 months, through end of 2019, earnings of $12.52/per annum (CY2019) x 20 = $250
- bottom line: AAPL may be ripe for a pull-back (or as some might say, a "buying opportunity)
************************************
Miscellaneous
The market: I've said this before ... see disclaimer below -- for those with a long horizon, say 20 years, this is an incredibly great time for picking up some incredibly "cheap" energy stocks. For shale operators, operators in the Bakken are now benefiting from full-cycle pricing to half-cycle pricing; for operators in the Permian, in general, they are not quite there yet but they will get there more quickly than the Bakken operators did. Idle chatter. Getting way ahead of my headlights.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
A Keffiyeh For Covfefe -- November 10, 2019
Professionals could do better but this will have to do until professionals get around to it.
In terms of money, biggest race in professional horse racing: the Breeder's Cup.
For those who missed this last weekend:
And for those complaining about the Starbucks holiday cups:
In terms of money, biggest race in professional horse racing: the Breeder's Cup.
For those who missed this last weekend:
And for those complaining about the Starbucks holiday cups:
How Bakken Operators Are Capturing Oil That Would Otherwise Be "Orphaned" -- November 10, 2019
There are a number of "innovations" in the Bakken in which operators are utilizing to capture orphan oil. This remains a problem in the Permian, but the operators and regulators in North Dakota seem to have it figured out. With some consolidation in the Permian, the same thing will happen in the Permian, all to the good.
Note how CLR is capturing oil that would otherwise be "orphaned":
Wells number 1 - 6 in the graphic below were extended less than 100 feet, across the section line/drilling unit line, to capture otherwise "orphaned" oil.
I'm curious about the spacing unit for these wells. Let's look at #1 in the graphic below.
Production profile:
The artist taking a break.
Note how CLR is capturing oil that would otherwise be "orphaned":
Wells number 1 - 6 in the graphic below were extended less than 100 feet, across the section line/drilling unit line, to capture otherwise "orphaned" oil.
I'm curious about the spacing unit for these wells. Let's look at #1 in the graphic below.
- 35347, 1,974, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, four sections; 29 stages, 7.2 million lbsAlkali Creek, t4/19; cum 138K 9/19; four-section spacing unit -- sections 16/21/28/33-154-94
Production profile:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 30 | 15972 | 16051 | 12189 | 40695 | 33090 | 7226 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 31 | 22641 | 22719 | 16121 | 40999 | 35272 | 5312 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 31 | 22154 | 22042 | 17432 | 35100 | 8984 | 25711 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 30 | 24453 | 24423 | 22228 | 38829 | 22794 | 15645 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 31 | 39742 | 39780 | 36479 | 58587 | 54558 | 3639 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 11 | 12751 | 12477 | 10715 | 16308 | 14551 | 1757 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2019 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 981 | 387 | 0 | 387 |
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Giving Me A "Thumbs Up"
The artist taking a break.
OMG! CLR Did It Again! The CLR Carus Wells -- Cedar Coulee -- Section 28-147-96
Updates
August 2, 2021: graphic update --
September 23, 2020: new Carus permit --
- 37854, conf, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; see also #37066, below;
June 1, 2020: new Carus permit --
- 37606, conf, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96, 442 FSL 1466 FWL; probably near #16648, and #21974
- 16648: Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 571K 4/20; see this post;
- 21974: Carus 2-28H1, t7/13; cum 323K 3/20;
Original Post
For newbies:
- these are huge wells; most will have a 50K+ month of production;
- they are just one mile west of one of the most prolific fields in the Bakken
- until now, the Cedar Coulee oil field has had little activity
- all that talk about putting too many wells in one section seems not to be a problem in the Bakken
- eleven wells sited in this section and it appears that is well less than half of what it will eventually have
The graphic:
The wells in the graphic:
- 21974, 379, CRL, Carus 2-28H1, t7/13; cum 323K 3/20; nice jump in production, 6/19; not full months of production, 9/19 - 10/19; cum 332K 5/21; cum 347K 6/22;
- 16648, 508, CRL, Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 571K 3/20; huge jump in production, 7/19; cum 684K 5/21; cum 710K 6/22;
Almost all of these Carus wells will have a 50K+ month of production:
- 35550, 1,063, CLR, Carus 4-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t10/19; cum 142K 3/20; a 26K month; cum 232K 5/21; cum 247K 6/22;
- 35549, 1,160, CLR, Carus 5-28H, 42 stages; 12.8 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t9/19; cum 181K 3/20; cum 258K 5/21; cum 286K 6/22;
- 35548, 2,512, CLR, Carus 6-28H1, 42 stages; 12.8 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 298K 3/20; cum 407K 5/21; cum 424K 6/22;
- 35547, 2,041, CLR, Carus 7-28H, 42 stages; 12.7 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 308K 3/20; see details here; 50K month; cum 425K 5/21; cum 455K 6/22;
- 35575, 1,397, Carus 8-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 251K 3/20; 60K well; cum 341K 5/21; cum 363K 6/22;
- 35576, 2,018, Carus 9-28H, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 283K 3/20; cum 385K 5/21; cum 433K 622
- 35577, 2,017, CLR, Carus 10-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 307K 3/20; see this post; cum 413K 5/21; cum 464K 6/22
- 35578, 2,652, Carus 11-28H, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 333K 3/20; cum 437K 5/21; cum 484K 6/22;
- ***35587, 1,688, Carus 12-28HSL1, 42 stages; 12.8 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, producing; huge well; see this post; a 41K month; t7/19; cum 318K 3/20; cum 479K 5/21; cum 528K 6/22;
- 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 161K 3/20; cum 167K 5/21; huge jump in production; cum 235K 4/22; off line 4/22;
- 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, 5/10; cum 204K 3/20; cum 213K 5/21; cum 250K 5/22; offline 6/22; jump in production;
*****************************************
Example of Advantaged Oil
This should scare the heck out of Saudi Arabia. Think about it. And no one's talking about it. Very, very interesting.
The well:
- 16648, 508, CRL, Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 411K 9/19; huge jump in production, 7/19; see this post for updates;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 29 | 26143 | 26021 | 32423 | 32299 | 31805 | 165 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 31 | 40586 | 40539 | 54740 | 48579 | 47682 | 478 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 30 | 42528 | 42338 | 60150 | 53111 | 45791 | 6925 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 4 | 208 | 194 | 6350 | 2469 | 0 | 2428 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Compare with initial production back in 2008:
| BAKKEN | 1-2008 | 31 | 9206 | 9299 | 378 | 7633 | 7633 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2007 | 31 | 8448 | 8431 | 305 | 7059 | 7059 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2007 | 30 | 8773 | 8617 | 249 | 8107 | 8107 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2007 | 31 | 11772 | 11829 | 564 | 10697 | 10697 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2007 | 30 | 14220 | 14180 | 858 | 623 | 623 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2007 | 31 | 10833 | 10729 | 2252 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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