Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 10, 2019

Beautiful, beautiful day in DFW, Texas, area today. Cold front to hit tomorrow. Standing-room only in Starbucks. Seconds after writing that, another long line of folks showed up. The number of toddlers accompanying parents is fascinating ... the new "Dairy Queen" for Texans. LOL.

Tusk, Fleetwood Mac
That should be the UCLA fight song. Fleetwood Mac is so "UCLA." Compared to the USC Fight Song, the UCLA fight song is so lame. LOL. Wow, I'm going to get a lot of flack on that one. My wife is a graduate of UCLA? Me? USC.

A lot of history in this song, by the man who wrote it:

Walking in Memphis, Marc Cohn

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Apple

Updates

Later, 6:26 p.m. CT: a couple of hours after posting the note below, this from the Financial Times:

Apple has piled on more than $400bn of market capitalisation so far this year, even as its profit margins fade and its new iPhone failed to wow analysts. The increase in its equity value since January comes to $407bn: almost as much as the entire market capitalisation of JPMorgan Chase, America's biggest bank by assets. The higher price nudges Apple ahead of Microsoft — which itself is up 44 per cent — to regain the title of the world's most valuable listed company, worth $1.16tn.

Original Post

 

The market. If AAPL ever starts trading like a "consumer staple," watch out --

• Procter and Gamble, PG, P/E: 75.76 (no typo)
• Apple, Inc, AAPL, P/E: 21.88 (no typo)
• currently: 
• Apple, Inc: earnings: 11.89
• AAPL: price: $260
• P&G multiple pricing for AAPL, 75.76 x 11.89: $900.79.
• Note: it was not me who first noticed this; brought to my attention by a "Fast Money" trader
• even KO (Coca-Cola) trades at a 30-multiple
• and it should be noted that the Jul-Aug-Sept quarter for Apple, Inc., is historically much worse than its "holiday" quarter; link here to fact check;
• "holiday" quarter one year ago was 44% better than the preceding quarter
• "holiday" quarter two years ago was 88% better than that quarter's preceding quarter
• so, let's say, this "holiday" quarter is 60% better than the most recent quarter, then we get an earnings of $4.85 for the Oct-Nov-Dec-2019 quarter (consensus is $4.53)
• for the 12 months, through end of 2019, earnings of $12.52/per annum (CY2019) x 20 = $250
• bottom line: AAPL may be ripe for a pull-back (or as some might say, a "buying opportunity)

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Miscellaneous

The market: I've said this before ... see disclaimer below -- for those with a long horizon, say 20 years, this is an incredibly great time for picking up some incredibly "cheap" energy stocks. For shale operators, operators in the Bakken are now benefiting from full-cycle pricing to half-cycle pricing; for operators in the Permian, in general, they are not quite there yet but they will get there more quickly than the Bakken operators did. Idle chatter. Getting way ahead of my headlights.

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