Nothing About The Bakken -- September 18, 2018

I received a very nice comment from a reader earlier today. The reader said a lot of nice things about the blog, the music, the politics, the family stuff. I kept waiting for the "... but ... you need to ...."

The reader was being very generous ...

Wow, I have to play some music really loud -- before this gets too cheesy / sappy / treacly --

Dreaming, Blondie
The writer picked up on something: a lot of the notes to the granddaughters are simply there for them if they ever need something biographical for a school project. LOL.

My biggest complaint about the blog: the music is repetitive. I try to find new stuff but it seems YouTube keeps pushing me in certain directions.

"Treacly." My wife taught me that word years ago. 

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Wow, I haven't done this one in a long time. It's perhaps my all-time favorite -- again, headphones, and really, really loud .... I usually post a different video when I post this song -- first time for this particular video --

Yellow River, The Tremeloes</center>
One of the comments regarding this video:

It's no coincidence that the music sounds very similar: It's exactly the same recording. Only the voice was re-recorded. See Wikipedia: ""Yellow River" is a popular song recorded by the British band Christie. Written by band leader Jeff Christie, the song was offered to The Tremeloes, who recorded it with the intention of releasing it as a single early in 1970. However, after the success of their then most recent single, "Call Me Number One", and after considering it too pop-orientated for their future direction, they decided to follow it up with another of their own compositions, "By The Way", which was only a minor Top 40 success.

Producer Mike Smith therefore took their vocals off the recording and added those of Jeff Christie. Released on 23 April 1970, it became an international hit, reaching number one on the UK Singles Chart for one week in June 1970. In the US, it reached number 23 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. Bad luck! The Tremeloes missed their biggest hit!

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9:00 p.m. Starbucks closes at 9:30; they start shutting down at 9:15 p.m. Will have to finish this at home -- five-mile bike ride -- busy traffic part of the way; busy highway part of the way. Pitch black; sunset some hours ago -- officially 7:30 p.m. -- hard to believe, so early for sunset. I have lots of lights on the bike and my backpack. Lots of time to think.

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Good luck to all. See you in the a.m.

For The Archives -- ENB, EEP, EEQ -- September 18, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read.

For the archives: ENB, EEP, EEQ, from MarketWatch --

• EEP unitholders will receive 0.3350 common shares of ENB for each common unit of EEP; an 8.7% increase to the exchange ratio proposed earlier of 0.3083 ENB common shares
• EEQ: 0.3350 ENB; at parity with the EEP exchange ratio

Background:

Significant weakening of the U.S. Master Limited Partnership (MLP) capital markets has adversely affected the growth opportunities for MLPs, including EEP. MLPs are dependent on consistent access to capital markets at an effective cost of capital to fund projects to grow their distributions.

The respective March 15 and July 18, 2018 income tax allowance policy announcement and order by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and the regulatory rate impact from the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act have had a net significant adverse impact on EEP.

If EEP were to continue as a stand-alone entity, after taking into account its lower revenue and weak MLP capital markets, it would be required to transition to a self-funding model with no cost effective access to equity capital. EEP's priority would be to strengthen its balance sheet, which would require near term incremental Enbridge support, and reduce its distributions, which would have corresponding negative implications to EEQ. 

(Approximate?) closing prices, September 17, 2018:

• ENB: $34.28
• EEP: $11.25
• EEQ: $10.80

Distribution history: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/eep/dividend-history.a

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Notes to the Granddaughters

For Father's Day -- some months ago -- the Tutor Time teacher recorded Sophia's answers to the following questions:

Questions and answers:

• Where does your dad work: at the airport
• Favorite thing to do with your dad: go to my party
• My dad's super power: sleeping good
• I love dad more than: cupcakes
• My dad laughs when he: tickles me
• I love my dad because:  he loves me so much

Hess Reports Five Completed DUCs -- September 18, 2018

Apple iPhone review. CNBC talking heads did a nice review of the new iPhones. They only got one thing wrong. They keep talking about how expensive the phones are. "No one" has to pay those prices. We've gone through this before. These phones are heavily subsidized by the carrier. Monthly payments as low as $0 in some cases but I assume the brand new, best iPhones can be had for less than $50 / month ... let's check ... wow, I was wrong, really wrong. One can get the brand-new iPhone Xs for $0 / month:

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GDP

From GDPNow:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11.

The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. 

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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

$69.75↑	9/18/2018	09/18/2017	09/18/2016	09/18/2015	09/18/2014
Active Rigs	64	56	32	67	199

Two new permits:

• Operators: WPX, Lime Rock
• Fields: Squaw Creek, Dimond
• Comments:

Eight permits renewed:

• QEP (7): seven Hazel permits in McKenzie County
• Texakota: one H Borstad well in Williams County

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 33603, 1,637, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-6, Truax, t9/18/ cum --
• 33604, 1,097, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-5, Truax, t8/18; cum --
• 33608, 1,669, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-5, Truax, t8/18; cum --
• 33605, 1,650, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-4, Truax, t8/18; cum --
• 33606, 2,121, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-3, Truax, t8/18; cum -- 

Producing wells to the west of these new Hess wells (check again in 6 months)

• 21037, 684, Hess, SC-Gene
• 29166, 988, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 29165, 739, Hess, SC-Norma-
• 29818, 915, Hess, SC-Norma-
• 29817, 737, Hess, SC-Norma-
• 29816, 1,354, Hess, SC-Norma-
• 29164, 896, Hess, SC-Norma-

To the east (half run south; half run north), all having just been completed and producing (check again in six months):

• 33610, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 33609, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 33608, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 33607, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 33606, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
• 33605, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
• 33604, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
• 33603, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-

Farther to the east, these wells on confidential list:

• 34900, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-7,
• 34901, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 34902, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 34903, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
• 34904, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
• 34905, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
• 34906, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
• 34907, conf, Hess, SC-JCB

Not To Spoil Your Day, But .... September 18, 2018

... could be another great day for CBR -- when the Iowa Supreme Court makes its decision .... re: the DAPL. The good news:

• by rail, it's really not all that far to Illinois;
• as the price of oil goes up, the pipeline/rail differential becomes less consequential;
• CBR is much more flexible than pipe (link here); and, 
• wow, the rails are going to do very, very well

Later: I would assume that if the DAPL is shut down, there will be a lot of unhappy surface owners, towns, cities, and states. Apparently landowners got paid over $20,000 an acre for their easements.  If they'd have sold the land outright, they'd have banked 1/3 to 1/2 that.  Now, they've still got the land - and it'll produce at some level.  Liked the incongruity of "undisturbed" vs. "drainage tile" pointed out.

For Newbies -- This Is Happening All Over The Bakken -- Mineral Owners Have Noticed This For Years -- September 18, 2018

Look at this graphic.

Pay attention to these wells:

• #20521 drilled back in 2012.
• #17407 drilled back in 2009.
• The 31XXX wells completed in July, 2018.

The production for #17407 is at this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/09/xto-fenton-federal-with-huge-jump-in.html.

Pertinent production for #20521. This well has not produced since 2015 when it was producing 2,000 bbls / month. Came off-line when Saudi Surge destroyed oil prices. Operator managing assets very, very well:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	25	10219	9853	25037	13195	0	13168
BAKKEN	6-2018	2	0	0	2229	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

So, how is #31966, one of the 31XXX wells looking?

• 31966, 1,803, XTO, George Federal 21X-19F2, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 18K after 20 days; 2nd bench of the Three Forks -- 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	20	18482	17820	46026	20147	0	20105
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	0	0	3970	0	0	0

Other wells:

• 31964, 2,823, XTO, George Federal 21X-19E, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 16K after 8 days, extrapolates to 60,000 bbls for a 30-day month.

• 31961, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, t--; cum 15K after 11 days;

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Screen Test For A New David Lynch Movie

Taken some years ago.

No, she did not get the part. Apparently David felt she was "over-acting."