Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Statoil's Huge North Sea Field Profitable At $25 Oil; Big Shift In Energy Fundamentals -- RBN Energy -- August 30, 2016

Samson Resources signs new Chapter 11 exit plan -- WSJ
Tulsa, Okla.-based Samson is battling junior creditors in bankruptcy court and must either defeat them or win them over in order to make the restructuring proposal a reality.
The agreement signed Friday pledges investors holding 39% of Samson’s second-lien loan claims to support a new chapter 11 plan that should be filed within days.
When it filed for bankruptcy protection in September 2015, Samson was weighted down with about $4.9 billion worth of debt. It had a deal in hand, but falling energy prices continued to chop into the value of Samson’s assets and the pact fell apart.
Although is it increasingly difficult for a one-man band to keep this data updated, I track Bakken operators at this post

Statoil slashes CAPEX but will still see a 40% increase in initial daily production capacity from that field.
Norway’s Statoil AS A has slashed billions of dollars off planned spending on the giant Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, ensuring it should remain profitable even if oil prices fall to around half current levels.
The state-controlled oil producer also forecast as much as a 40% increase in initial daily production capacity from the field.
Again, note: Statoil's Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea should remain profitable at $25 oil.

The WSJ sees the other side of the coin:
The recalibration of one of Norway’s biggest-ever oil projects—a rare example of a major investment that has gone ahead since the collapse in oil prices in the past two years—shows the pressure oil producers including Statoil are still under with oil prices hovering below $50 a barrel.
I guess it depends how you want to see / tell the story.

For the WSJ, the emphasis is on Statoil slashing CAPEX.

For Saudi Arabia: Statoil's giant oil field should still be profitable if oil prices fall to $25 oil. Twenty-five-dollar oil is an existential issue for Prince Salman.  

See the RBN Energy story below (and the Richard Zeits' article yesterday): $50 oil is the new $80.

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ATT Just Got Better (Or Bigger)

Zacks
Telecom and pay-TV behemoth, AT&T Inc. has inked a deal with HBO that will enable it to deliver Time Warner Inc. TWX-owned HBO’s content across multiple platforms through satellite, online streaming and cable-based U-verse. Notably, AT&T is launching its online streaming service Over The Top (OTT) DIRECTV Now by the end of this year owing to the gaining popularity of the business model across the millennial population.

The online streaming service is gaining momentum as is evident from the growing success of companies like Netflix Inc. NFLX, which is a leading player in this segment. This has resulted in massive subscriber losses for the pay-TV operators.
To counteract the churn rate, many pay-TV operators are implementing this model and AT&T is no exception. We believe that the addition of HBO’s content, which features immensely popular TV series like Game of Thrones, will help the company gain subscribers in its new platform. However, AT&T is a late entrant in this industry and it remains to be seen whether it can compete against the already established players in this segment.
And while we are on the subject of ATT, here's another Obama administration ruling that was overturned by the court:
A federal appeals court threw out a government lawsuit against AT&T Inc. that alleged the company misled wireless subscribers by selling them unlimited data plans and then quietly slowing down service if they consumed high amounts of data.
Monday’s ruling, from the San Francisco-based Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, is a blow to the Federal Trade Commission, which filed the suit in 2014 seeking potential refunds for consumers. 
Although the FTC has broad authority to police unfair and deceptive commercial practices, it doesn’t have authority over “common carrier” phone services such as the landline services traditionally offered by AT&T. The commission had said it could pursue the company, however, because it involved data services, but the appeals court rejected that argument.
The ruling further solidifies the FTC’s diminishing authority in the telecommunications space. The consumer protection agency already was facing reduced enforcement powers thanks to open-Internet rules the FCC put in place last year. Those rules imposed common-carrier obligations on broadband services, including wireless.
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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:


8/30/201608/30/201508/30/201408/30/201308/30/2012
Active Rigs3176194185191

RBN Energy: Big shift in energy fundamentals. RBN Energy seems to agree with Richard Zeits. $50 oil is the new $80 oil.
U.S. crude oil prices languish below $50/bbl, but the oil-directed rig count is up by 90, an increase of almost 30% over the past 12 weeks.   Natural gas production is down less than 1% from the all-time high hit back in February even though the price of natural gas remains below $3/MMbtu.  The price spread between U.S. propane and international markets is far below a level that should justify exports, but LPG exports to overseas markets continue at astronomical levels –– approaching 700 Mb/d, most of which is propane. What’s wrong with this picture?  Why does it seem that relationships between energy production, demand and prices have broken down, or at least have undergone some fundamental shift?  That is what our upcoming School of Energy Fall 2016 is all about.   
At first glance, a number of energy market relationships may seem to have shifted, but the reality is that we are just looking at the market from a different perspective than ever before – the recovery from a Shale Revolution crude oil price crash.   Two years ago U.S. hydrocarbon markets entered Shale 2.0.  (Sorry about using such a tired old metaphor, but it works.)
Back in 2007-09 before the Shale Revolution started to impact markets (labeled Pre-shale), gas, NGLs and crude tended to move in tandem.  Moving in almost perfect correlation, all three of these markets blew out in the commodity run-up of 2008 and all crashed with the Great Recession.   
But by then shale had come to natural gas, and pricing for gas, NGLs and crude diverged (the Shale Gas era).  Natural gas oversupply kept prices low while crude and NGLs recovered along with the global economy.   That motivated producers to move to wet gas – containing lots of NGLs, because NGL prices were still strong.  U.S. hydrocarbon markets entered the Wet Gas era.
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Update On California's Bullet Train 
First Leg Ends In Almond Orchard In Middle Of Nowhere

From The Los Angeles Times:
The state’s plan to build an initial stretch of high-speed rail line, from San Jose to a map point in the midst of Central Valley farmland, came under renewed attack at an oversight hearing Monday. 
The apparent absurdity of the abbreviated route was not lost on supporters. 
“It seems odd,” acknowledged Dan Richard, chairman of the rail authority, “to be stopping in the middle of an almond orchard.”
The words of the rail authority chairman: "It seems odd to be stopping in the middle of an almond orchard."

I can't make this stuff up.

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More Good News For US Natural Gas Industry
Australian State Of Victoria Bans Fracking

Reuters:
The state of Victoria plans to ban shale and coal seam gas fracking in what would be Australia's first permanent ban on unconventional gas drilling, citing the concerns of farmers and potential health and environment risks.

However the government left the door open to allowing onshore conventional gas drilling after 2020.

The decision was made despite the fact that most of eastern Australia's gas supply is produced from coal seam gas and comes as a blow to manufacturers who have been clamouring for more gas supply to help keep prices down.

Gas supply has become an issue following the opening of three liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in the state of Queensland, which together are set to triple gas demand in eastern Australia by 2018 from 2014.
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The Market

Closing: uneventful day; the market (Dow 30) closed 49 points down; oil dropped below $47. NYSE --
  • new highs: 153; BRK-B traded at a new all-time high, now over $150; the banks are reporting record (?) profits and Warren Buffett loves banks
  • new lows: 5; add Noble Energy to ITT
Early morning: for a market that is looking for a reason to go down ("correct") and for all the talk about a "bubble" in the stock market, it is interesting to note that on a day when the market is down, there are 124 issues on the NYSE that hit a new high (many on opening; and, are now pulling back a bit); and only one issue that is trading at new lows -- ITT -- and that's due to force majeure.

Opening:  opens slightly up, essentially flat. AAPL drops 40 cents, down to about $106 after the huge EU tax story. It sounds like Ireland has the problem, not Apple. Apple was in compliance with Ireland's tax law and Ireland agrees. The EU says Ireland is at fault and wants Ireland to collect $14 million (plus interest) in back taxes from Apple. Isn't going to happen. [I may be wrong, but it seems the Drudge Report headline is in error. Drudge says the EU orders Apple to pay $15 billion in back taxes. I believe the EU told Ireland to collect that money -- whatever the final amount is -- from Apple. To the best of my knowledge, the EU did not send a tax bill to Apple. If anything, the EU sent a tax bill to Ireland. But I could be wrong.] NYSE:
  • new highs: 124 - BRK-B (a big whoop); Loews; OXY (a huge whoop -- for the record, I don't own any OXY; I don't think I've ever owned OXY and have no plans to ever buy OXY);
  • new lows: 1 -- ITT (Obama brought 'em down)

Monday, August 29, 2016

Richard Zeits On The Bakken -- Optimistic -- SeekingAlpha -- August 29, 2016

Mike Filloon has had four articles on the Bakken recently and now we have an article from Richard Zeits. This all suggests to me, along with other stories coming out of the Bakken, that things are "happening."

The newest contribution from Richard Zeits: shale oil -- the "upcycle" is already underway.

Summary:
  • For U.S. shale oil, $50 per barrel is the “new $80” - a result of the industry's evolution since the beginning of the downturn in oil.
  • Capital spending and capital availability will continue to be forward-looking: operators and investors will anticipate improvements in drilling economics.
  • Using the current strip curve, activity acceleration is sustainable and should become particularly visible in 2017.
The article will disappear over time.

The comments are incredibly good. I particularly liked the comment about shareholders: agree 100%. I think a lot of folks forget that.

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Cool -- 
Marijuana State Hasn't Lost All Sense
Hunter S Thompson Would Be Proud

Colorado anti-oil initiatives fall short of qualifying for ballot.
Two proposed initiatives that would have increased restrictions on oil and gas activity in Colorado failed to make the November 8, 2016, ballot because they did not collect enough valid signatures.

Officials of the Colorado Oil & Gas Association (COGA) and the Colorado Petroleum Council (CPC) separately welcomed the news.
Backers submitted the signatures in early August. Initiative No. 75 would have let local governments to prohibit, control, or impose moratoriums on oil and gas development; enact local laws that are more restrictive than state laws; and bar the state from preempting such law.

Initiative No. 78 would have changed Colorado’s setback requirements for any new oil and gas development to at least 2,500 ft from the nearest occupied structure or other specified or locally designated area, and authorize the state or a local government to require that any such new development be more than 2,500 ft away from such structures.

News And Comment: Nothing About The Bakken -- August 29, 2016

One can only laugh. I canceled my subscription to The New Yorker about a month ago but I still "read" it every week at the Southlake Library. I canceled my subscription because the magazine had turned into a political mouthpiece for Hillary.

One of my favorite pieces in The New Yorker was always "A Reporter At Large." This week's story: "The Moscow Laundromat: How Deutsche Bank helped Russians spirit billions out of that country."

I wonder if next week we will see "The DC Laundromat: How President Obama helped Iran get its half-billion dollars back."

Or even, "The DC Laundromat: How Solyndra served as a conduit for Democratic campaign contributions."

Nope. Probably not.

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Two Staff Writers At The NY Times  
Recognize That ObamaCare Marketplaces Are In Trouble

This is an absolutely worthless article, but it provides readers an update on where things stand, what people are talking about and what they are considering. It's a fluff piece to say the least. If interested, google ObamaCare marketplaces are in trouble what can we do NY Times. 

Looks like Reed Abelson and Margot Sanger-Katz are two new nominees for the 2016 Geico Rock Award.

Rick Newman over at Yahoo!Finance has noted the same thing: ObamaCare is in trouble. It is interesting that mainstream media is finally willing to note the obvious -- now that President Obama is down to less than 150 days in office.

He has been so incredibly awful, even grandmother Hillary is starting to look good. 

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A Note For The Granddaughters
The Human Genome
Nature: The Human Genome
Editor: Carina Dennis and Richard Gallagher
c. 2001
DDS: 599.935 HUM

The genome size is usually state as the total number of base (A, T, C, and G) pairs; the human genome contains roughly 3 billion.

There is little correlation between the complexity of an organism and the size of its genome.
  • human genome: 200 times more DNA than yeast
  • human genome: comparable in size to that of frogs and sharks
  • human genome: dwarfed by the genome of the newt, with 15 billion base pairs
  • a single-celled micro-organism, Amoeba dubia, is 200 x bigger than the human genome
One thought: an Amoeba -- threatened by its environment much more than a human -- may need that size of toolbox. If the environment threatens me personally today, I can always flee. An Amoeba cannot flee very far nor very fast.
-----

Genes (in more complicated organisms than bacteria) are divided into sections that code for proteins, called exons (meaning "expressed sequences"), interrupted by non-coding spacers called introns (meaning "intervening sequences").

Human genes vary greatly in length; where the average protein-coding sequence of a gene is about 1,000 to 2,000 base pairs, long stretches of non-coding sequence interspersed between exons can extend the boundaries by 20,000 -- 100,000 base pairs. The largest known human gene, which encodes dystrophin (an important protein in the scaffolding of muscle cells), is 2.4 million base pairs long, of which only 14,000 actually code for the protein.

Less than 2% of the human genome is made up of protein-coding sequences. We do not understand what most of the other 98% of the human genome is there for.

-----

A selection of notable genomes that have been sequenced:
  • 1977: a bacteriophage; the first genome sequenced, 5,386 base pairs
  • 1995: Mycoplasma genitalium; smallest genome of any free-living organism; 580,000 base pairs
  • 1996: Saccharomyces cerevisiae; first genome of a "eukaryotic" organism; yeast used by brewers and bakers; 12 million base pairs
  • 1996: Methanococcus jannaschii; the first genome from the third kingdom, Archae, which comprises microbes that live in harsh environments; 1.7 million base pairs
  • 1997: Escherichia coli; workhorse bacterium for biologists; 4.7 million base pairs
  • 1997: Heliobacter pylori; bacterium assoc with gastric disease; 1.7 million base pairs
  • 1998: Mycobacterium tuberculosis; causes tuberculosis; 4.4 million base pairs
  • 1998: Caenorhabditis elegans; the first genome sequence of an animal, the roundworm; 97 million base pairs
  • 1999: Deinococcus radiodurans; highly radiation-resistant bacterium; 500 rads can kill a human being; some members of Deinoccocus can withstand millions of rads; 2.6 million base pairs
  • 1999/2000: Homo sapiens; first human chromosomes; chromosome 22 (HSA 22; 48 million base pairs); HSA 22, 45 million base pairs
  • 2000: Drosophila melanogaster; the fruit fly; important in laboratory genetic studies; 180 million base pairs
  • 2000: Vibrio cholera; causes cholera; 4 million base pairs
  • 2000: Arabidopsis thaliana; the first genome of a plant, the mustard weed; 120 million base pairs
  • 2001: Mycobacterium leprae; leprosy; 3.3 million base pairs
----

Interesting: Nature says we have "24 chromosomes, 3.2 billion bases, and around 31,000 genes." Note: 24 chromosomes. Standard textbooks tell us we have 23 pair of chromosomes.

Human genome project: in less than 15 months, a draft sequence of 90% of the total human genome had been sequenced. The human genome sequencing project is of interest because:
  • it is the largest genome to be extensively sequenced so far
  • it is 25x as large as any previously sequenced genome
  • it is 8x as large as the sum of all such previously sequenced genomes
  • it is the first vertebrate genome to be extensively sequenced
  • uniquely, it is the genome of our own species
-----

LTR: long-terminal repeat
LTR retroposons: long-terminal repeat retroposons
SNPs: single nucleotide polymorphisms

EOG Changes Name Of Well To "SWD" Despite Great Initial Production -- August 29, 2016

Updates

August 30, 2016: see this post also
 
Original Post
 
Active rigs:


8/29/201608/29/201508/29/201408/29/201308/29/2012
Active Rigs3076194183190

No wells coming off confidential list Tuesday.

No producing wells reported as being completed

Five new permits:
  • Operator: BR
  • Field (County): Dimmick Lake (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: these are five Dodge permits in section 17-151-96; three middle Bakken and two Three Forks wells; all appear to be on one pad
Ten permits renewed:
  • Statoil (3): one Michael Owan and two Reitin permits, all in Williams County
  • Whiting (2): two Hecker permits in Stark County
  • HRC (2): two Forth Berthold permits in McKenzie County
  • Enduro Operating: one NSCU permit in Bottineau County
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: one Olav permit in Divide County
EOG change the name of file #31247:
  • 31247, conf, new name: West Clark 201-01SWD, was: West Clark 103-0136H -- production history:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20163711883594
5-20161626428547

I don't understand this. When a file name includes PNC it means the permit has been cancelled. I would assume "SWD" means a salt water disposal well, but it makes no sense for this to be a SWD based on production. The well is still listed as being CONFIDENTIAL

Screenshot of the area where #31247 is located:

 

Another Pipeline Project Abandoned; Power Surge In Texas -- WSJ -- August 29, 2016

Best clip of the day! From MSNBC

From Reuters: Truck carrying Takata air bag inflators explodes in U.S., killing one. No link; by the end of the day, the story will be everywhere -- for all I know it will be the lead story on ABC News with David Muir tonight.

Exxon Mobil backs out of Alaska LNG project. From The Wall Street Journal.
Exxon Mobil has decided not to invest in the next stage of a proposed natural gas export terminal in Alaska and said it would work with its partners to sell its interest in the project to the state government.
The company’s decision comes amid a global glut of natural gas that has depressed prices and follows the release of a Wood McKenzie report earlier this week concluding the Alaskan project “is one of the least competitive” of proposed liquefied natural gas plants worldwide.
A spokesman for Exxon said Friday that the company will no longer invest in the proposal, which is “transitioning to a state project.” Exxon owns about one-third of the project, according to the state.
Last November, the Alaskan government paid $65 million for TransCanada Corp. ’s 25% stake in the project, known as Alaska LNG, which is expected to cost between $45 billion and $65 billion.
It has yet to be approved for construction and wouldn’t start commercial shipments before 2023, according to filings by its corporate backers. The other backers, BP PLC and ConocoPhillips, each hold roughly 20% stakes and have signaled that they, too, could pull out.
Power surge in Texas. From The WSJ today:
A startling energy bonanza has gone almost unnoticed in Texas: the rise of renewables. The Lone Star state has added more wind-based generating capacity than any other, with wind turbines accounting for 16% of electrical generating capacity as of April, and is anticipating a huge surge in solar power. We report that at a time when debate is raging between political parties over climate change, and critics charge that “green energy” is little more than a government creation, Texas has taken an approach that works within the state’s free-market-based electricity system. And state officials say wind and solar are almost certain to play a significant and growing role in the state’s energy future even when federal subsidies decline in coming years.
Renewable energy in Texas. From The WSJ today.

EVs will be here faster than "we" think. From The WSJ today.

Death spiral: as many as one-third of US counties may have one ObamaCare option. Now it's all about monopolies. From The WSJ. One has to ask the question: if more and more folks opt out of ObamaCare will that improve the economy? Imagine what families could do with an extra $2,000/month in their wallets.

How good is Tony Romo? He has won one -- that's right, one -- play-off game. From talk radio, Ft Worth. 

And now for another perspective: the Dakota Access Pipeline and the "law of Christendom." From Indian Country, TodayMediaNetwork. com.

The news not being reported: when you add up Trump's numbers (44%) and Hillary's numbers (44%) one gets ... let's see ... 88%. That leave 12% voting for someone else (or not voting). My hunch: that 12% is not going to be split down the middle between Trump and Hillary.

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:


8/29/201608/29/201508/29/201408/29/201308/29/2012
Active Rigs3076194183190

RBN Energy: the series continues -- too much pipeline in the Marcellus / Utica?
Of all the demand markets in the U.S., the biggest prize eyed by Marcellus/Utica natural gas producers is the Gulf Coast region, where a combination of industrial demand, LNG exports and power generation projects is driving a need for more and more gas. And beyond the U.S. Gulf Coast states, there lies still another market capable of gobbling up even more of the excess Northeast gas supply: Mexico’s rapidly growing gas-fired generation sector ––that is, assuming pipelines in Texas can get it all the way there. There is over 4.0 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica-to-Gulf-Coast takeaway capacity planned to be completed over the next few years. Today, we look at the status and timing of Northeast pipeline takeaway projects targeting the Gulf Coast.
With the Northeast producing region hoping for access to close to 18 Bcf/d of incremental takeaway capacity over the next several years, the question now becomes, will there be too much takeaway capacity out of the Northeast?
To answer this, we first looked at the RBN Northeast production outlook and prospects for supply growth under three commodity-price scenarios, concluding that efficiency gains and the uncompleted well inventory (DUCs) indicate that even the low production case will lead to at least some supply growth in the region. With that in mind, we turned our attention to upcoming takeaway capacity projects, organized into five outbound flow corridors that we defined for our analysis. Of the 24 projects RBN is tracking in our Midstream Infrastructure Database Interface (MIDI), six projects totaling 3.3 Bcf/d are headed to the New England and Mid-Atlantic states, or along what we call the East corridor; two projects adding up to 0.65 Bcf/d are planned for the Canadian corridor and four projects totaling 4.3 Bcf/d to the Midwest via Ohio ;and  four projects with a combined 5.2 Bcf/d to the Southeast along the Atlantic Coast are under development.  
We also started our examination of what some of this new gas supply will do to natural gas markets along the Gulf Coas. 
Today, we look at each of the projects that will flow Marcellus/Utica gas along the fifth and final corridor — the Gulf Coast via Ohio, aka the Promised Land of future natural gas demand.
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The Market

Closing: it looks like the market closed up about 100 points. NYSE --
  • new highs: 201
  • new lows: 11
Mid-day trading: wow, up 120 points. How quickly the Fed became irrelevant. The Dow 30 is near its 52-week high, which would be another all-time high. NYSE:
  • new highs: 157; BRK-B (a huge whoop);
  • new lows: 10;
Opening: so much for Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market surges 81 points on opening.  Late morning, the market (Dow 30) was up over 100 points. BRK-B surged to a new all-time high, flirting with $150. A big whoop. XLNX also continues to move up about one-half percent. NYSE:
  • new highs: 134;
  • new lows: 10;
Futures: not as bad as overnight reports suggested.