Friday, April 8, 2016

Friday, April 8, 2016

India, the new "China." From Bloomberg/Reuters:
The world’s second-most populous nation is increasingly becoming the center for oil demand growth as its economy expands by luring the type of manufacturing that China is trying to shun. And just like China a decade ago, India is trying to hedge its future energy needs by investing in new production at home and abroad. 
India may have one advantage its neighbor to the northeast didn’t. While China’s binge came during a commodity super-cycle that saw WTI crude reach a high of $147.27 a barrel in 2008 -- due in no small part to its demand -- India’s spurt comes during the biggest energy price crash in a generation.
While oil has tumbled more than 50 percent from mid-2014 levels, the South Asian nation spent $60 billion less on crude imports in 2015 than the previous year even while buying 4 percent more.
In 1999, China’s economy was less than a 10th of its current size of more than $10 trillion, and bicycles vied for space with taxis and buses on crowded streets in major cities like Shanghai. In the ensuing 17 years the economy, spurred on by foreign investment in manufacturing, grew from the seventh largest in the world to No. 2. Vehicle sales surged and oil demand has nearly tripled since then, positioning the country to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest crude importer this year.
Active rigs:


4/8/201604/08/201504/08/201404/08/201304/08/2012
Active Rigs3191191185208

RBN Energy: Natgas Storage Spreads Are Back, Alright!
A few years ago, natural gas storage was one of the hottest segments of midstream infrastructure development.   But along came shale, then oversupply, then depressed prices.  The forward curve flattened out, killing off new storage development projects and putting a lot of financial pressure on those companies that own or lease storage capacity.  But recently things have shifted, at least part of the way back to the good ole days.
The summer/winter spread currently sits at $0.63/MMBtu (April 7, 2016), the highest level since 2012, and up significantly from the past years average of around $0.30/MMBtu.  Midstream companies with available storage should be able to lock in higher prices compared to past years.  In today’s blog, we look at the situation now facing natural gas storage operators and show how recent shifts in the market may affect their returns.
USGS: fracking does not cause earthquakes. For the archives. We already knew this.
A study by the U.S. Geological Survey identifying the potential for natural and human-induced earthquakes identifies wastewater injection—not fracking—as the primary cause of increased tremors in the south central U.S.
In a first-of-its-kind study, USGS examined the potential for human-induced and natural earthquakes for a one-year period to supplement its standard 50-year forecast. Within the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS)—an area populated by 7 million people—the agency’s report said there’s a chance of damage from all types of earthquakes similar to the natural earthquakes in the high-hazard areas of California.
The maps released with the study show that east of the Rocky Mountains, much of the seismic activity is in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Although this activity is sometimes attributed to hydraulic fracturing conducted by the oil and gas industry, USGS said “this process is only rarely the cause of felt earthquakes.”
According to the report, “Wastewater disposal is thought to be the primary reason for the recent increase in earthquakes in the CEUS.”
Bakken average production costs lowest among shale plays: again, for the archives; previously posted from a different source; this from Bakken Magazine:
Oil and gas industry upstream costs in 2015 were 25 percent to 30 percent below 2012 levels in the Bakken and four other onshore areas evaluated.
To better understand the costs of upstream drilling and production activity, EIA commissioned IHS to study costs on a per-well basis in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus and Permian (Delaware and Midland basins) plays. Titled “Trends in U.S. oil and natural gas upstream costs,” the report is available here.
The period studied is from 2006 through 2015, with forecasts to 2018. Well costs in the regions studied were:
- Bakken wells costs were $7.1 million in 2014, but will drop to $ 5.9 million in 2015.
- Eagle Ford wells averaged $7.6 million in 2014, but will fall to $ 6.5 million in 2015.
- Marcellus wells will cost $6.1 million in 2015 after having an average cost of $6.6 million in 2014.
- Midland Basin wells were $7.7 million in 2014, but will drop to $ 7.2 million in 2015.
- Delaware Basin wells cost $6.6 million in 2014 and will drop to $5.2 million during 2015.
Yips. for my brother-in-law, from ESPN, the video will go viral --
Ernie Els made dubious Masters history in the opening round Thursday by scoring a 9 on the par-4 first hole -- the highest in 80 years of the tournament.
Els, 46, a World Golf Hall of Famer who has won four major championships, six-putted the first green at Augusta National after chipping from off the green to within 3 feet for what appeared to be an easy par.
It could have been worse. The Masters live scoring had it listed as a 10 all day, until officials conferred, reviewed videotape and determined that Els had taken just six putts, instead of seven. He finished with an 8-over-par 80 and is tied for 81st.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

QEP To Report Five Big Wells Friday; Whiting With Another Huge Flatland Federal Well -- April 7, 2016

One (1) new permit --
  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Camel Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Five (5) producing wells completed:
  • 30195, 686, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3D, Lindahl, t3/16; cum --
  • 30370, 698, XTO, Lisa Federal 14X-34F, Hofflund, t3/16; cum --
  • 30371, 1,196, XTO, Lisa 14X-34E, Hofflund, t3/16; cum --
  • 30372, 413, XTO, Lisa 14X-34A, Hofflund, t3/16; cum --
  • 30665, 376, XTO, Smouse 31X-38H, West Capa, t3/16; cum --
Active rigs:


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Active Rigs3193194187208

Seven (7) wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
  • 30606, 1,090, QEP, Boggs 3-29-32T2HD, Grail, t10/15; cum 100K 2/16; production held back;
  • 30607, 1,000, QEP, Boggs 8-29-32BHD, Grail, t10/15; cum 96K 2/16; 
  • 30608, 1,995, QEP, Boggs 2-29-32T2HD, Grail, t10/15; cum 78K 2/16; production held back; only 8 days in January, 2 days in February;
  • 30609, 2,053, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31T3HD, Blue Buttes, t10/15; cum K 2/16; production held back; only 7 days in December, 5 days in January;
  • 30610, 2.202, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31THD, Blue Buttes, t10/15; cum 93K 2/16; production held back; 21 days in December, 21 days in January;
  • 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks 2nd cycle, 31 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t10/15; cum 134K 2/16; only 24 days in February, 16 days in November, 8 days in October. Drilled to vertical depth and the curve in five days. Total depth of the south lateral was reached in ten days from spud. Gas: 800 to 1,000 units. Connection gases as high as 7,958 units, with a 3' to 5' flare. At 21,505 feet it's a lot of pipe.
  • 31543, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-5, Capa, no production data, 
See this post regarding the Whiting Flatland Federal well

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30776, see above, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, Twin Valley:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20162552970724
1-20163627196082
12-201542703106903
11-20152301544393
10-2015646711189

30610, see above, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31THD, Blue Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20161879322787
1-20161328918025
12-20151252122615
11-20153411439846
10-2015134860

30609, see below, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31T3HD, Blue Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20163567464961
1-201654058895
12-201546749115
11-20152801133699
10-2015125620

30608, see above, QEP, Boggs 2-29-32T2HD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201615202135
1-201667018410
12-20151954229313
11-20153383434586
10-2015166860

30607, see above, QEP, Boggs 8-29-32BHD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20162101428481
1-20162188129603
12-2015881111710
11-20153412538086
10-2015100230

30606, see above, QEP, Boggs 3-29-32T2HD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20163697673250
1-20161468225682
12-20151542625235
11-20152361825366
10-201580810

The Political Page -- April 7, 2016


I apologize for posting this late. I had to get it cleared through the Department of Justice to ensure that my SuperPac was not corresponding with or coordinating with Ted Cruz. For newbies, to the best of my knowledge there are no Devils Lake oil rigs; the off-shore oil rig is only an artist's drawing of a rig in the middle of Devils Lake.

It appears that not only is North Dakota #1 in nuclear missiles (take note, North Korea), but it is also the global crude oil swing producer, and now the GOP swing state.

File under "swing."

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The Biden Rule


Breaking news:  President Obama, at University of Chicago: Senate decision not to consider Merrick Garland for Supreme Court is 'unprecedented.'

I believe the "President of the US Senate is Mr Joe Biden."

I believe "The Biden Rule" on this matter was formulated in 1992. 

John Kemp's Weekly Energy Tweets; Jobs Report Pending -- April 7, 2016

Reminder: I'll be posting today's initial unemployment claims at this post.

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John Kemp: Saudi Arabia's king flying to Cairo to reassure Egypt about continued support. Article at Reuters.
Despite years of mutual frustration and disappointment over diverging priorities, Saudi Arabia and Egypt remain fundamental to each other's security, a message King Salman's visit to Cairo this week is intended to reinforce.
The rare foreign trip by the 80-year-old Saudi ruler will counter media commentary in both countries of discord between the richest Arab state and the most populous, to show Riyadh still backs Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. 
Gulf monarchies have lavished aid on Egypt since 2013, but have grown increasingly disillusioned at what they see as Sisi's inability to address entrenched corruption and inefficiency in the economy, and at Cairo's reduced role on the regional stage. 
At $30 oil, that "lavished aid" may not be so lavish any more. We've talked about this before.

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Tweeting now: Platts --  China targets 13% rise in natural gas, 7% fall in crude output for 2016.

Venezuela: sitting on top of the world's largest crude oil reserves and the country is now "giving" its workers "off" every Friday to save energy. And folks are still supporting Bernie Sanders here in the US. 

April 7, 2016 -- Deep Soil Temperatures In North Dakota For Enquiring Minds; Bakken Operators Losing $6/Bbl Shipping By Rail To Louisiana -- RBN Energy

Breaking news: Victoria's Secret to cut 200 jobs, eliminate certain merchandise categories. I'm depending on readers to send me photographs of the "certain merchandise categories" to be eliminated.

Breaking news: Teen retailer Pacific Sunwear confirms bankruptcy filing. 

Oil  holding. From Reuters today:
Oil steadied at around $40 per barrel on Thursday as a surprise fall in U.S. inventories the previous day was offset by an increase in exports from Iraq, underlining global oversupply.
From the two most trusted names (Bloomberg/Goldman) in oil price forecasting: oil at $35 is the "Goldilocks" ideal for US explorers.
Oil at $35 a barrel is neither too high nor too low but just right to make shares of U.S. explorers worth buying, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
While prices of crude at that level are above cash costs of production, they will deter a rebound in shale output from occurring too early, the bank’s New York-based analysts including Brian Singer said in a report dated April 6. Oil at $30 to $35 a barrel should keep the behavior of U.S. companies unchanged and help lift West Texas Intermediate to $55 to $60 a barrel in 2017, according to Goldman.
Soil temperatures: an individual asked about the soil temperature in North Dakota during the winter. Don provides a link that tracks deep soil temperature on an hourly basis. In a state highly dependent on farming it makes sense this data would be tracked. What a great state.

What a racket: Massachusetts pols reluctantly look to raise solar energy net-metering caps. Story at Washington Times.
Last year, the average retail reimbursement was around 17 cents per kilowatt hour.
Global warming, from The Weather Channel:
Climate change is a major threat to human health, with extreme heat likely to kill 27,000 Americans annually by 2100, according to a report released Monday by the White House.
The report, by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, outlines numerous ways global warming could devastate public health in the U.S. this century.
Global warming will lead to heat waves so extreme that in the hottest times of the year, it will be “physiologically impossible” for people who work outdoors to do their jobs, John Holdren, a science advisor to the Obama administration, said during a news conference about the report.
We're talking a 0.2-degree increase in temperature -- assuming global warming exists; assuming the computer models are accurate (LOL); assuming .... assuming ... assuming ... My hunch is Sasha and/or Malia wrote this "report" for a science fair submission. 

A big "thank you" to the reader who sent me this. The reader noted that it was strange that the White House still talks about "global warming." We are well past "global warming" -- first, it was global warming, then climate change, but now it's extreme weather.

All I can say is that we're on the highway to the danger zone:

Highway to the Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins

I was mentioning to my wife last night: when I was in high school in Williston, back in the 60s -- the best era for music -- I recall all those stories of heat waves in Chicago and NYC resulting in an untold number of deaths; and, photographs of all those fire hydrants opened for inner city youth -- who grew up to be rappers -- playing in the water. We don't see those photographs or read those stories any more. Do we?
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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs

4/7/201604/07/201504/07/201404/07/201304/07/2012
Active Rigs3093194187208

RBN Energy: CBR -- Bakken operators are losing $6/bbl shipping by rail to Louisiana. This is Part 8 in RBN Energy's series updating the sorry state of the CBR business in North America in 2016 compared to its heyday a few years back.
According to our friends at Genscape at the end of March (week ending April 1, 2016) Bakken shippers could sell their crude at the railhead in North Dakota for $32.05/Bbl. Prices for Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude at the Gulf Coast were about $5.40/Bbl higher than at the railhead but the rail freight to the Gulf was a few cents less than $12/Bbl.
That means a Bakken producer would lose nearly $6.50/Bbl by shipping crude by rail to St. James, LA, versus selling in North Dakota. Yet despite Crude-by-Rail (CBR) economics being so underwater - the volumes delivered to two St. James terminals averaged 66 Mb/d in 2016 through March.  Today we continue our series on the fate of CBR with a look at inbound Gulf Coast CBR shipments.
Reminder: second refinery in southwestern North Dakota in the works.