Sunday, August 16, 2015

Sunday, August 16, 2015 -- Count The Scottish Among The Deniers

Another article on the US as the "new" swing producer, replacing Saudi Arabia as the former swing producer. Project Syndicate is reporting:
Adding to the supply-side changes was Saudi Arabia’s subsequent historic announcement that it would no longer lead OPEC in playing the role of swing producer. It would no longer lower production when prices fell sharply, and increase output in response to large price surges.
That decision was both understandable and rational. Playing the role of swing producer was coming at a growing cost to both current and future generations of Saudi citizens. Non-traditional suppliers had increased their market influence, non-OPEC producers continued to plan high output, and some OPEC members failed to adhere to their production ceilings. Given all this, Saudi Arabia could no longer be expected to incur the growing short- and long-term cost of being the stabilizing market force that it had been for decades. 
Over the next few months, the US will indeed alter its supply and demand conditions in a way that puts a floor under oil prices and enables a gradual recovery in the market. But, unlike the previous swing producer, this will result from traditional market forces, not policy decisions.
Indeed, we should expect an even sharper reduction in US energy output as persistently low prices increase the pressure on domestic producers. From the shutdown of additional rigs to the curtailment of new investment in exploiting shale resources, the US will likely experience a fall in its absolute energy production, as well as in its share of world output.
I still think we're being set up for $200 oil in 2018.

***************************
Green Jobs?
No Way, San Jose!

AP is reporting:
Three years after California voters passed a ballot measure to raise taxes on corporations and generate clean energy jobs by funding energy-efficiency projects in schools, barely one-tenth of the promised jobs have been created, and the state has no comprehensive list to show how much work has been done or how much energy has been saved.
Money is trickling in at a slower-than-anticipated rate, and more than half of the $297 million given to schools so far has gone to consultants and energy auditors. The board created to oversee the project and submit annual progress reports to the Legislature has never met, according to a review by The Associated Press.
Voters in 2012 approved the Clean Energy Jobs Act by a large margin, closing a tax loophole for multistate corporations. The Legislature decided to send half the money to fund clean energy projects in schools, promising to generate more than 11,000 jobs each year.
Instead, only 1,700 jobs have been created in three years, raising concerns about whether the money is accomplishing what voters were promised.
*******************
No Global Warming In Scotland

The Daily Mail is reporting the snow and ice still hasn't completely melted in Scotland this year:
A cold summer in Scotland has led to this incredible natural phenomenon - with ice and snow which still hasn't melted forming a network of icy tunnels and caves clinging to the edge of mountains.
Experts say an unusual mix of circumstances has produced a stunning world of snow tunnels and bridges towering higher than a double-decker buses in the Cairngorms National Park.
A range of factors has seen a growing number of snow patches remaining since 2007, but this summer there are more than have been seen for 20 years.
The stunning structures are created when the snow begins to melt, and as water begins to flow underneath, a tunnel of air forms, melting the snow from under it.
The results are these vast caverns, sometimes so big that people can walk underneath, and decorated with melting patterns that look like choppy waves.
I assume the Kennedys are already planning their next year's summer trip to Scotland to see the new glacier.
************************
A Little Light Reading During Lunch

Thirteen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Weekend, Monday; EOG, HRC, Whiting With Big Wells -- August 16, 2015

Note: I track Whiting's Tarpon Federal wells here

Monday, August 17, 2015
  • 27123, 1,083, EOG, Parshall 42-2117H, Parshall, 44 stages; 11.3 million lbs sand, t2/15; cum 128K 6/15;
  • 27127, 2,743, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23D-14-7H, Eagle Nest, 32 stages, 4.8 million lbs, t2/15; cum 100K 6/15;
  • 27413, 3,131, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19TFHU, Sand Creek, 37 stages, 3.9 million lbs, 2/15 cum 53K 6/15;
  • 28602, 1,031, EOG, Parshall 154-1721H,  Parshall, 44 stages, 8.9 million lbs, ESP, March, 2015; t2/15; cum 108K 6/15;
  • 29168, drl, CLR, Kellogg Ranch Federal 2-32H1, Elidah, no production data,
  • 29199, 3,238, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-1RH, Sand Creek, 30 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t2/15; cum 67K 6/15;
  • 29200, 2,468, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-3RTF, Sand Creek, t2/15; cum 52K 6/15;
  • 29391, drl, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14H, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 29689, drl, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-5, Truax, no production data,
Sunday, August 16, 2015
  • 29688, drl/NC, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-4, Truax, no production data,
  • 30378, SI/NC, Statoil, East Fork 32-29 7H, East Fork, no production data,
Saturday, August 15, 2015
  • 29687, 985, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-3, Truax, no production data,
  • 30444, SI/NC, EOG, Shell 15-2819H, Parshall, no production data,
********************************************

27123, see above, EOG, Parshall 42-2117H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2015153438937
5-20152573716249
4-20153290919925
3-20154454322257
2-201589394366

27127, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23D-14-7H, Eagle Nest:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2015140465038
5-20151431612905
4-20152361920916
3-20154141443165
2-201566764945

27413, see above, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19TFHU, Sand Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20152940977686
5-20151508015527
4-201515113883
3-201504
2-201571450

28602, see above, EOG, Parshall 154-1721H,  Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20151883316502
5-20152356615632
4-20152335512549
3-20152918910515
2-2015121984727

29199, see above, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-1RH, Sand Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20153165866525
5-20151366324511
4-201531357661
3-20151010325715
2-201581080

29200, see above, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-3RTF, Sand Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20152807070996
5-201543447181
4-2015847121553
3-2015474511678
2-201561020

Saturday, August 15, 2015

Portable Frack Sand Systems; The "Global Warming" Hiatus Continues -- Farmers Almanac -- August 15, 2015

Could these portable frack sand systems be coming to the Bakken? It seems they would make a lot of sense. The systems can store 5 million lbs of sand, which is about what is used in most wells in the Bakken, but the system can throughput a lot more than 5 million lbs:

San Antonio Business Journal is reporting:
Houston-based Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure has debuted a portable 12-silo frac sand system, which it says promises to drive down costs on the drilling pad.
The announcement comes amid six-year low crude oil prices and at a time when companies are looking at innovative technology to increase efficiency and reduce the production cost per barrel.
With a total storage capacity of 5 million pounds, the system can deliver sand at an average rate of nearly 23,000 pounds per minute into two blenders simultaneously.
The new 12-silo system was recently used to successfully complete a “zipper” frac of two wells on a drilling pad in the Permian Basin.Delivering sand at an average rate of nearly 23,000 pounds per minute into two blenders simultaneously, the new system was used to complete 34 frac stages and deliver 30 million pounds of sand during the four-day completion of both wells.
Company figures show that the 12-silo system was used to deliver nearly 9 million pounds of sand to the wells during one single 24-hour period alone.
The 12-silo system enabled 22 frac sand trucks to simultaneously unload sand at the well site, resulting in an effective truck offload rate of approximately 1.65 million pounds per hour and eliminating truck demurrage on site.
*************************************
Global Warming
Climate Change
Extreme Weather
Falling Lakes
Rising Lakes

The AP is reporting:
Just when you thought you had gotten over last winter, be warned: The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts it will be super cold with a slew of snow for much of the country, even in places that don't usually see too much of it, like the Pacific Northwest.
If you don't want to read about those four-letter words, there's plenty more to peruse in the folksy, annual book of household tips, trends, recipes and articles, such as animal jealousy, the history of shoes and anticipation for the biggest Supermoon in decades in November 2016.
Global warming?
Otherwise, look for above-normal snow and below-normal temperatures for much of New England; icy conditions in parts of the South; and frigid weather in the Midwest. The snowiest periods in the Pacific Northwest will be in mid-December, early to mid-January and mid- to late February, the almanac predicts.
The Kennedys are already looking forward to their first ski trip in New Hampshire later this year. Perhaps as early as Halloween.

Thirteen (13) New Permits Issued In North Dakota -- August 15, 2015

Updates

August 27, 2015: there was an error with this by the NDIC; corrections were made on August 27, 2015; Corsican Federal wells have new permit numbers and are now followed here.
 
Original Post
 
Yesterday's NDIC daily activity report said there were no permits issued on Friday. A sharp-eyed, and, no doubt very curious, reader took a look and noted that, in fact, thirteen (13) new permits have been added to the list:
  • Operators: CLR (8), XTO (4), QEP
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), Lindahl (Williams), McGregor, (Williams) Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments: CLR's eight (8) permits are all Corsican Federal permits in the Sanish, 
The Corsican Federal permits; section NENE 15-153-93:

31874, 1,561, CLR Corsican Federal 1-15H, t8/16; cum 62K 12/16;
31875, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 2-15H1,
31876, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 3-15H,
31877, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 4-15H2,
31878, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 5-15H,
31879, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 6-15H1,
31880, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 7-15H,
31881, SI/NC, Corsican Federal 8-15H2,
********************************
Reading About The Bakken? 
Nope: Skippyjon Jones

The Bakken -- August 15, 2015

June's production in North Dakota was the second highest in the history for the state despite efforts to really, really, really cut back on production. Rigs are down to less than 75 (compared to 220 during the boom); the number of wells waiting to be fracked is almost at record highs (825; the record high is around 900); operators choking back because a) of NDIC flaring rules; b) low crude oil prices; c) refineries unable to take any more oil; d) refineries down for maintenance; e) inadequate pipelines; f) Tioga gas plant at less than capacity; and, there are probably some reasons I've forgotten or don't even know about.

But this is what really caught my attention today. The June production (most recent data available) showed there was an increase of 0.7% month-over-month. Two comments:
  • the Obama administration had predicted that the Bakken would show a decline of almost 30,000 bopd, when in fact, it was about 9,000 bopd increase
  • this follows the previous month when there was an astounding 2.7% increase month-over-month; after a 2.7% increase, I would have expected a decline in June
I think 750,000 bopd out of the Bakken would be just fine until the price gets back to something reasonable. I see no need to give Bakken oil away like the Saudis are giving their oil away.