How Popular Are The Vern Whitten Photographs? Very.

At the sidebar at the right, there is "segment" that lists the most popular ten posts on this blog: note how two of the top three most popular posts right now are the recent photographs from Whitten Photography, links that were posted in the last two days. The "top ten" list is based on some Google/Blogger algorithm that comes with the application. I don't have any control over it.

Update On A Vern Whitten Aerial Photograph Linked Earlier

One of the challenging "things" about the blog is how to update older posts. Actually, that's not the problem. It's easy to update older posts. The problem is that some really great updates are lost to readers. I post 5 - 10 posts/day (sometimes more) and update even a larger number of older posts every day.

A few moments ago I updated an earlier post that I think readers will enjoy: a reader sent in an "explanation" of the rigs and the wells that were "featured" in one of the incredible photos that Vern Whitten sent yesterday.

This is the post.

For Investors Only: AAPL Continues To Trade At New 52-Week Highs -- And So Does OXY

Trading at new 52-week highs: AAPL, CSX, DIS, NFX, NRG, OXY, WIN.

SLB, up over 1%, is near its 52-week high. BHI, likewise, is up about a percent. EPD, down a bit today, is very near its 52-week high. AAPL is surging -- another 1% -- on top of recent gains. Talk is that this $600 stock will test the $700-mark again. T is holding its own. WMB, having hit new highs recently, is holding its own, staying flat, near its 52-week high. BRK-B is near its 52-week high. CLNE is surging.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Earlier today I sent this note to Don, regarding today's a) initial claims report; and, b) today's revised GDP which showed a 1% contraction (a huge story, by the way):

First, the unemployment story: whether fictitious or not, it's the headline story that gets repeated.

Second, and much, much more important. That story on -1.0% revised 1Q14 GDP -- a huge contraction and much worse than originally reported -- the original report, as bad as it was, at least showed some growth. The revised report, not only showed contraction, but a huge contraction. This is why it's a huge story in my mind. They blamed it on the weather. The weather will not be a factor for the rest of the year, no matter how bad hurricane season is.

More importantly: the 0.1% was the headline story folks like you and me were told. One knows that the movers and shakers (like Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Dennis Gartman, Jon Corzine) knew what the real number was when they had their staff look deeply into their own beige books. So, the movers and shakers knew that the economy contracted long before the rest of us. And despite that knowledge, they kept investing in the market: not only did the market hold its own, but it is currently hitting new records.

If movers and shakers kept buying into the market when they knew the revised number was going to be awful, that tells me they were not concerned. In fact, they were bullish.

A lot of folks will say that the movers and shakers think the 1.0% contraction will mean Yellen will have to keep printing money and when she stops the party is over. Maybe. But I don't think she will stop printing money this year. She will taper, but the movers and shakers have already baked that into their won numbers.

So, when I see that the market held its own, and subsequently set new records, despite an incredible contraction of 1.0%, that blows me away. And even if one argues the movers and shakers did not know, it's history. The 1.0% contraction is behind us. If analysts stick to their guns that GPD will grow 3% for the entire year, it's gonna be a humdinger of a year, these last three quarters to make up the contraction that has already occurred.

That's what I wrote. Now, later, I read this summary in Yahoo!In-Play talking about the market today:

The stock market ended the Thursday session on an upbeat note despite receiving some disappointing data ahead of the open. The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.5% with nine sectors registering gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) underperformed throughout the trading day.

Shortly before the open, the second revision to Q1 GDP revealed a 1.0% contraction, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a smaller decline of 0.5%. Interestingly, the subpar report led to just a brief stumble in the futures market, which recovered swiftly. That recovery may have been aided by today's initial claims report, which suggested the labor market remains on solid ground.

Interesting, huh?

The Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Down To 187; 1Q14 GDP Horrendous -- Blame It On The Weather -- LA Times

I mentioned I had trouble finding this story today, but here it is, in The Los Angeles Times, a headline story: economy shrinks in first quarter; 1Q14 GDP slowdown MUCH worse than thought; instead of a paltry 0.1% growth in GDP, it turns out the Obama 1Q14 economy contracted 1.0% -- is this the first time the GDP contracted in his presidency of "recovery"? 

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:

The economy performed worse than initially estimated amid severe winter weather in the first three months of the year, contracting for the first time since 2011, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The nation's total economic output decreased at a 1% annual rate from January through March, down significantly from the government's first estimate of weak, but positive, 0.1% growth for the period.

Recent data indicate that the recovery has picked up this spring.

But the new report shows just how bad things were during the winter and how much ground the economy has to make up to hit the 3% overall growth for 2014 that economists had been hoping for.

This news is incredibly bullish for investors.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Now, back to the Bakken.

Active rigs:

	5/29/2014	05/29/2013	05/29/2012	05/29/2011	05/29/2010
Active Rigs	187	183	218	172	119

RBN Energy: talk of exporting oil (won't happen in my investing lifetime).

Crude oil exports from the United States are heavily restricted by Department of Commerce regulations introduced in the 1970’s that are administered by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).

These regulations prevent the export of US crude oil except to Canada or in specific circumstances from Alaska and California.  In Episode 1 of this series we discussed the consequences of a partial end to the ban on crude exports that might occur as a result of a change to the BIS definition of lease condensate – a very light hydrocarbon that is nevertheless defined as crude that cannot be exported.

Production of lease condensate is booming in shale plays like the Eagle Ford in South Texas. Our analysis imagined that if the condensate export ban were lifted tomorrow, much of this material would be exported to Asia as a petrochemical feedstock.

This time around we widen the debate to wonder what would happen if there were a complete removal of the ban on crude exports – including lease condensate.

The crude export regulations were written at a time when a shortage of oil threatened US security and prompted legislators to prevent domestic producers sending supplies overseas. Between the mid-80’s and 2009, US crude oil production was in long term decline meaning that dwindling domestic supplies were eagerly snapped up by US refiners and the export ban was never more than an occasional issue (such as when Alaska North Slope – ANS- production exceeded West Coast refinery requirements in the 90’s). Since 2010, however, the US has undergone a dramatic crude renaissance, principally as a result of the shale oil revolution. Current production is over 8.4 MMb/d – its highest level since October 1986 – up 50 percent since the start of 2011. And while production is soaring, proved reserves are increasing even faster – laying the groundwork for continued output.

The Wall Street Journal

 Shinseki. Drip, drip, drip, ...

Apple to buy Beats to regain music mojo.

Republican governor raises state's minimum wage to $9.25 / hour by 2018; Michigan.

Ukraine says "nyet."

Just after his speech saying he will partner with allies, Obama unilaterally sends 1,000 US Marines toward Libya.

H-P layoffs continue. Won't be fast enough. 

The Los Angeles Times

Obama to bypass Congress to cut greenhouse gases. Boehner rolls over.

Looks like "they" need the jobs: Irwindale no longer says the hometown icon and factory is a nuisance.

Jobless Claims Drop So Much, Not Even A Headline Story Any More; 1Q14 GDP Worse Than Originally Reported: Contracted At An Annual Rate of 1.0 Percent; Obama Administration Initially Said There Was Growth, Though Paltry, At 0.1%

This is quite remarkable, how difficult it is to find the weekly report on jobless claims. Today, with another record-breaking drop in US jobless claims, one would have expected it to be the top news story of the day. Earlier this morning, I had trouble finding the numbers. I went off to breakfast assuming it would be the #1 story today, and yet nowhere in the liberal press/mainstream media is the story making the headlines. That speaks volumes.

Deep down among the other ho-hum Yahoo!Finance stories this headline: US jobless claims drop, continuing claims lowest since 2007. Reuters is reporting:

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a strengthening labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 300,000 for the week ended May 24, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

The prior week's claims were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless aid falling to 318,000 last week.

This is truly incredible, the lowest number since 2007, and dropping an astounding 27,000 -- seasonally adjusted. 

And it's not even a headline story. 

The boiler-plate:

The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 11,250 to 311,500 last week, the lowest level since August 2007.  

The good news: all that talk about extending unemployment benefits probably just that -- talk. With the jobs market surging, and everyone now able to find a job, not much reason for extending the unemployment benefits. 

The big question is: how huge is the rally on Wall Street with all this good news? Ah, yes, the market is up ... drum roll ... 10 points (0.06%). Zeropointohsix percent is 0.0006. 6/10,000 points. I was really hoping for a lot more. 

Let's check my bellwether stock for the day: ERF, after a recent jump. It's down. And so it goes.

Interestingly, this story got very little play. I challenge readers to find mainstream press talking about it. I assume it was not on NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw (or whoever the current "reader" is). Remember the original number? 1Q14 GDP grew at just 0.1%. 

See if you can find the "revised" number. It is very, very difficult. I'm not even sure this is for the US, it's so hard to find, but I think it is. bizzyblog is reporting;

The overall number is worse than anyone thought —

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the decline in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated.

The link provides an incredible background of data and analysis.