The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): The Market Today -- February 8, 2024

Thursday, February 8, 2024

The Market Today -- February 8, 2024

Locator: 46763INV.

Breaking: S&P 500 hit 5,000 but closed just below 5,000, but still an all-time high. NASDAQ closes at a new high. And this is after "the Fed cut" is off the table for March, and likely off the table for May, 2024.

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The Blog

Before we get to the market, front and center over at TheDrudge Report today:

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Now, Back to the Market

Sorry for the delay in blogging. Just too many things going on. But I'm back. LOL. Your worst nightmare.

After this note, I'll be taking a break. Going out to the pool. Although I may blog poolside. We'll see.

Wow, the market continues to surge. Today, maybe not across the board but look at this:

HSY: up $12 / share; up over 6%; holy mackerel — huge increase in dividend. Whoo-hoo!
RL: up $20 / share; up almost 14%;
K: up $2 / share; up almost 4%
ARM: soars over 60%. Tell me again AI is being hyped; ARM with strong guidance.

Quick:

who was the Time person of the year?
what was that person "wearing" on the cover?
with regard to K: what was the rate of inflation for groceries (food) last year (2023)?
who was instrumental in convincing Joe Biden to "pause" new LNG export facility permitting?

So, that should get us started.

Personal investing:

one "word" of advice: "neverquitreading."

Having said that, CNBC is a "must."

I go back and forth on CNBC but right now I'm back to watching CNBC "religiously."

As readers know, I generally stop watching CNBC during periods when the overall market is dropping. It just gets too depressing. Although I'm getting better on that front now that I continue to invest through "thick and thin."

Anyway, I wrote all that to say this.

the best three hours: 8:00 - 9:00 CT, the first and second hours of Squawk on the Street. Standouts: Jim Cramer and David Faber in the first hour. Sara Eisen in the second hour. That's all I need to watch. The third hour, which I frequently miss, Scott Wapner on Half-Time Report.
without question, Sara Eisen is the best interviewer on CNBC. [One of the worse. if not the worst: Becky Quick. Perhaps just as bad, Phil LeBeau.]
Sara Eisen may be CNBC's best presenter overall but she has stiff competition. The three best, in order: David Faber, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli.
top tier but not among the top three: Scott Wapner. Close on his heels, Carl Quintanilla.
best "specialists": Bob Pisani, Rick Santelli.
top CNBC entertainer: Jim Cramer.
panelists: too many to name, many I don't know by name, but my favorite -- Josh Brown.

Back to Sara Eisen. This morning she went on a ten-minute (probably not that long) extemporaneous, soliloquy (riff) on Ralph Lauren. That one segment was worth the price of my monthly cable subscription.

The best guest today: Bruce Richards. Those who missed that interview today ... well, what can I say:

explained why China is in a world of hurt and how China will respond (good news for US consumer)
the Fed, very, very specific:

nine cuts
over the next two years
from the current 5% to 2.5% over the next two years
first rate cut: no sooner than June, 2024

AAPL: one of Tim Cook’s biggest mistakes — not “working with” Epic / Fortnite. A huge lost opportunity. Bob Iger’s fate — saved by Epic.

The biggest risk to the market:

if the market overheats, look for an increase in the Fed rate
the Fed doesn't do "cuts" in the current scenario — has never done cuts in a roaring economy;
so, the Fed rate:

an increase in the Fed rate this year: 10% chance and the likelihood is increasing;
higher for longer: 80% chance
first rate cut in March: 0%
first rate cut in June: 5%
first rate cut after November election: 5%
"Oksol's dot plot"

The market today:

WTI: $75.85. Up $2.00 today.
COP: up 1.5% today; up $1.80; announced March, 2024, quarterly dividend in line, 58 cents; pays slightly more than 4%;
CVX: up slightly; pays 4.3%;
UNP: down again, two days in a row, after a bump three days ago; down 08% today; pays 2%.
AAPL: down 0.% today; down $1.21 / share
NVDA: this is just crazy -- up another 6% today; up almost $4 / share today; absolutely crazy
AMD: down a bit
MPC: down a bit, but look at its six-month run: