The Market Today -- February 8, 2024

Locator: 46763INV.

Breaking: S&P 500 hit 5,000 but closed just below 5,000, but still an all-time high. NASDAQ closes at a new high. And this is after "the Fed cut" is off the table for March, and likely off the table for May, 2024.

**************************
The Blog

Before we get to the market, front and center over at TheDrudge Report today:

 ***************************
Now, Back to the Market

Sorry for the delay in blogging. Just too many things going on. But I'm back. LOL. Your worst nightmare.

After this note, I'll be taking a break. Going out to the pool. Although I may blog poolside. We'll see.

Wow, the market continues to surge. Today, maybe not across the board but look at this:

• HSY: up $12 / share; up over 6%; holy mackerel — huge increase in dividend. Whoo-hoo!
• RL: up $20 / share; up almost 14%;
• K: up $2 / share; up almost 4%
• ARM: soars over 60%. Tell me again AI is being hyped; ARM with strong guidance.

Quick:

• who was the Time person of the year?
• what was that person "wearing" on the cover?
• with regard to K: what was the rate of inflation for groceries (food) last year (2023)?
• who was instrumental in convincing Joe Biden to "pause" new LNG export facility permitting?

So, that should get us started.

Personal investing:

• one "word" of advice: "neverquitreading."

Having said that, CNBC is a "must."

I go back and forth on CNBC but right now I'm back to watching CNBC "religiously."

As readers know, I generally stop watching CNBC during periods when the overall market is dropping. It just gets too depressing. Although I'm getting better on that front now that I continue to invest through "thick and thin." 

Anyway, I wrote all that to say this. 

• the best three hours: 8:00 - 9:00 CT, the first and second hours of Squawk on the Street. Standouts: Jim Cramer and David Faber in the first hour. Sara Eisen in the second hour. That's all I need to watch. The third hour, which I frequently miss, Scott Wapner on Half-Time Report.
  
• without question, Sara Eisen is the best interviewer on CNBC. [One of the worse. if not the worst: Becky Quick. Perhaps just as bad, Phil LeBeau.]
• Sara Eisen may be CNBC's best presenter overall but she has stiff competition. The three best, in order: David Faber, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli.
• top tier but not among the top three: Scott Wapner. Close on his heels, Carl Quintanilla.
• best "specialists": Bob Pisani, Rick Santelli.
• top CNBC entertainer: Jim Cramer. 
• panelists: too many to name, many I don't know by name, but my favorite -- Josh Brown. 

Back to Sara Eisen. This morning she went on a ten-minute (probably not that long) extemporaneous, soliloquy (riff) on Ralph Lauren. That one segment was worth the price of my monthly cable subscription. 

The best guest today: Bruce Richards. Those who missed that interview today ... well, what can I say:

• explained why China is in a world of hurt and how China will respond (good news for US consumer)
• the Fed, very, very specific:
• nine cuts
• over the next two years
• from the current 5% to 2.5% over the next two years
• first rate cut: no sooner than June, 2024

AAPL: one of Tim Cook’s biggest mistakes — not “working with” Epic / Fortnite. A huge lost opportunity. Bob Iger’s fate — saved by Epic.

The biggest risk to the market:

• if the market overheats, look for an increase in the Fed rate
• the Fed doesn't do "cuts" in the current scenario — has never done cuts in a roaring economy;
• so, the Fed rate:
• an increase in the Fed rate this year: 10% chance and the likelihood is increasing;
• higher for longer: 80% chance
• first rate cut in March: 0%
• first rate cut in June: 5%
• first rate cut after November election: 5%
• "Oksol's dot plot"
  

The market today:

• WTI: $75.85. Up $2.00 today.
  
• COP: up 1.5% today; up $1.80; announced March, 2024, quarterly dividend in line, 58 cents; pays slightly more than 4%;
• CVX: up slightly; pays 4.3%;
• UNP: down again, two days in a row, after a bump three days ago; down 08% today; pays 2%.
• AAPL: down 0.% today; down $1.21 / share
• NVDA: this is just crazy -- up another 6% today; up almost $4 / share today; absolutely crazy
• AMD: down a bit
• MPC: down a bit, but look at its six-month run:

**********************
One Word: Apple (AAPL) 

To the best of my knowledge this is not an issue with Apple Pay (Wallet) and Apple is paying upwards of 5% for cash held.