For The Archives -- On The US Economy -- February 24, 2023

Based on the economic news / economic indicators that came out today and the rumblings on twitter a couple of comments with regard to the US economy:

• there is now no longer any question that it's "higher for longer"

There are obviously three questions:

• when will the Fed rate hit 6% -- before the end of 2023, or in early 2024?
• how high will the Fed rate go before the end of 2024?
• how long will the Fed rate stay above 5.5%? Through 2025 or longer?

My hunch:

• the best we can hope for: a very long period of whatever it is we are now in -- perhaps two more years of "this";
  
• more likely: an incredibly hard landing, but one which affects all of us very, very differently.

With regard to investing, two things are going to happen: 

• folks investing in ESG / "woke" companies will finally get serious about investing and will leave those companies in droves;
• this will be the end of most publicly traded EV manufacturers.
  

I flip-flop on Tesla all the time, but right now, relative to others, it looks stronger than ever. 

This will be the end of ESG. Tracked here. Sort of.

From May 5, 2022:

The energy transition is dead. Tracked here. 

• ESG is dead, too. Tracked here. 

Peter Zeihan was the first to say it. 

Best, newest example to support that contention, that energy transition is dead: despite sanctions on Russia is able to sell all the oil it produces, and it is actually, in many cases, selling it at higher prices than sanctions allow. 

Even President Biden says oil is here for at least another decade. LOL. Another fifty years.