Thursday, February 28, 2019, T+57 -- In Progress

Wow, so much going on today, -- gonna be a great day --

So I don't forget:

• UNP:
• 4Q18 GDP didn't disappoint:
• Saudi Arabia cuts crude oil supply to US gulf: link here. Link here.
• US oil imports at 23-year low; output hits another record. Link here.
• Jobs.
• Natural gas.
• Weather.

So, let's get started.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

UNP: pays 2%; trading near its 52-week high. 4Q18 earnings reported January 24, 2019 --

• record fourth quarter net income of $1.6 billioin or $2.12/share, which represents 29 and 39 percent increase, respectively when compared to 4Q17
• guidance for 2019 -- note that UNP is projecting less frack sand to be shipped:

Weather: one of the worst winters on record in the US northern tier. Haven't heard a word about global warming. But this summer, one hurricane and the news will blame it on global warming.

Jobs: link here --

• increased more than expected
• prior week revised to show more than 1,000 more applications received than previously reported
• forecast: 220,000 claims
• actual: 225,000 claims
• four-week moving average: fell 7,000 to 229,000 (the partial government shutdown created the volatility)
• number of people on unemployment rolls increased to a 10-month high, suggesting some slowing in the labor market
• combine that with recent Fed remarks on likelihood of "being patient" on rate increases

GDP, 4Q18, link here:

• US economy slowed to 2.6% but "it still shows lots of muscle" -- MarketWatch
• 3Q18: 3.4%
• 2Q18: 4.2%

Saudi Arabia cuts crude oil supply to US gulf: link here. Link here. I knew they had "cut," but I did not realize it was this much. Wow! Saudi Arabia has cut by more than half from a year ago its crude oil deliveries to the US gulf coast.

• This month (February, 2019): 1.6 million bbls (that's for the entire month)
• One year ago, February, 2018: 5.75 million bbls

But then look at this:

"We could see Saudi oil imports declining to zero into the U.S. Gulf Coast," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comment via Twitter that oil prices are too high won’t stem the current declining trend, as "OPEC and non-OPEC members feel prices are too low, and they will do what it takes to put the market back in balance." 

Government data showed Wednesday that total Saudi crude imports to the U.S dropped to 346,000 barrels a day last week, the lowest in data going back to 2010.

But because Obama killed the Keystone XL, US refiners will still need Saudi Arabian heavy oil. 

US oil imports at 23-year low; output hits another record. Link here. Data points:

• on a weekly basis, the lowest in 23 years
• lowest level since 1996
• 5.92 million bopd
• down 1.61 million bopd
• Saudi Arabia: fell to 346,000 bopd
• domestic crude oil production "skyrocketed" to 12.1 million bopd
• Saudi Arabia says oil markets to "balance" by April, 2019

Also from the report:

Using a 4-week average, U.S. imports of Saudi crude dropped to the lowest since May 1987. Saudi production collapsed between 1985 and 1986, at one point flirting with the 2 million barrel-a-day mark, as the kingdom lowered its production to defend higher oil prices.

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The Music Page

Lady Gaga successfully transitioned from music to the silver screen. Whether she has a repeat performance on the Big Screen, hard to say. Madonna sort of did it. Cher to some extent also succeeded. Barbra Streisand did.

Having listened to the Amy Winehouse catalogue (Amazon music) I am convinced that Amy could have been and should have been the next diva to get an Oscar role in a big-budget movie. Her "friends" let her down.

Having said that I'm not a big believer in the "woman is victim" myth. I am of the Camille Paglia school on this issue. With 426 million views:

Back to Black, Amy Winehouse