Tuesday, December 26, 2017

How Bad Was The Saudi Trillion-Dollar Mistake? -- December 26, 2017

It will take them more than a decade to balance their budget. 

From Bloomberg:
  • Saudi assumes: oil revenue will surge by 80% by 2023 -- that's five years from now; and almost ten years from when Saudi first announced plans to flood the world with oil, to crush US shale (their trillion-dollar mistake)
  • six-year program to balance the budget
  • their plant assumes rising oil prices and increasing output: will push oil sales to 801.4 billion riyals ($214 billion) from 440 billion riyals this year
  • assumes the price of oil will reach $75 (when that happens is not provided)
  • one expert says these assumptions look very "challenging"
  • "the strong oil revenue growth in 2017 will be difficult to repeat"
  • forecast: oil production to 11.03 million bopd vs an average 10 million bopd
  • for 2020: 10.45 million bopd
From another story earlier this month, this is how the Saudi's plan to execute their budget:


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