Saturday, December 13, 2014

Bloomberg Has Two-Page Article On Shale's Relentless Attack On OPEC -- December 13, 2014

Updates

December 14, 2014Halliburton is laying off folks in the Far East.
Political turmoil from Russia to West Africa helped push 1,000 workers out of their jobs at the world’s largest fracking company.
Halliburton Co. plans to make the job cuts immediately in the Eastern Hemisphere as it strives to cope with an industry fallout brought on by oil prices at a five-year low, the Houston-based company said in a statement yesterday.
Original Post

Two-page article in this week's issue of Bloomberg Businessweek (arrived on the doorstep at 5:30 a.m.).

First article in the magazine, under "Opening Remarks" column: OPEC: Shale's Relentless Attack.

Some data points / quotes:
  • All OPEC can do is gape at the falling price of crude and contemplate the destruction of their cartel at the hands of the Americans, whom they thought they had supplanted for good 40 years ago. 
  • Energy economist Philip Verleger says shale is to OPEC what the Apple II was to the IBM mainframe.
  • Theories as to why OPEC didn't reduce quotas at its meeting in Vienna on November 27 are as cheap and abundant as crude in North Dakota.
  • "If my calculations are correct, this (Saudi's inaction) will go down as one of the worst commodity trading decisions ever," Wilbur Ross, billionaire investor and chairman of WL Ross. [Elsewhere: $138 million/day; previously posted.]
  • Shale operators are "takers," not price setters. Each operator is so small, it can increase production without pushing down the market price. And because shale wells are short-lived, producers don't have to plan far ahead.
  • The glut that's undermining the cartel today will set the stage for future shortages that could restore its influence. 
  • Cheap oil from shale already shows signs of shaking out investment in costlier technologies. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consulting firm, estimates that oil averaging $60/bbl next year would lead to the delay or cancellation of one-third of all oil and gas projects slated for go-aheads in 2015, mainly higher-cost investments in the Alberta oil sands, the Arctic, Brazil, West Africa, and the North Sea.
Much more at the linked article.

Note which areas were not mentioned in the last bullet. 

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Global Warming
Climate Change
Extreme Weather 
Whatever

2014: no hurricanes (previously posted)
2014: quietest three years for US tornadoes since accurate records began in the 1950s

USA Today is reporting:
The U.S. experienced fewer tornadoes in the past three years than any similar span since accurate records began in the 1950s. Yet meteorologists aren't sure exactly why.
As this year comes to a close, about 150 fewer damaging tornadoes than average have hit the U.S. Explanations for the decrease in twisters the past three years range from unusual cold to unusual heat, or just coincidence.
Despite the calmer than average years, deaths due to twisters remain near the average of 60 each year, with 68 killed in 2012, 55 in 2013 and 42 so far this year. That pales in comparison with the 553 Americans killed by tornadoes in 2011. [Atmospheric CO2 has surged, well above 400 ppm.]
So far this year, just 348 EF-1 or stronger tornadoes have touched down across the country, marking the third-lowest number on record. 
"Unusual cold." Say what?

"Yet meteorologists aren't sure exactly why." Had the number of storms actually increased, it would have been blamed on global warming, again with no scientific underpinnings. But when "extreme weather" actually predicted by warmists does not occur, the phrases "global warming" and "extreme weather" are nowhere to be found in the article. Whatever.

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A Note To The Granddaughters

It is rare for adults to get chickenpox, but it occasionally happens. It is even rarer for mothers who have been around children -- especially around children from third world countries where immunization rates are almost negligible -- to get chickenpox late in life. I assume it is very, very rare for a mother of a dozen adopted children whose vaccination history would be questionable to develop chickenpox late in life, but it happens.

Herpes simplex reactivation is very, very common, often being reactivated by a) unknown reasons; b) sunlight; c) stress.

Herpes simplex reactivation and chickenpox look very similar in the early stages. What can I say?

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