Monday, November 18, 2013

Flaring: One Pesky Problem

 Updates

April 24, 2016: See North Dakota natural gas production / milestone: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/directors-cut-is-out-february-2016-data.html. 


Original Post

Disclaimer: my long notes, often done quickly, are not always proofread the first time they are posted. There may be typographical errors, and there may be factual errors, but hopefully folks can understand the point I'm trying to make. Except for the data at the bottom of the post, this is all opinion. 

Motley Fool is reporting a solution to the flaring problem as espoused by certain Bakken operators: mega-pads with a single natural gas pipeline going to the mega-pad.

I am going out on a limb here, beyond my comfort zone, because I could be way, way wrong, but I was told that unlike crude oil which can go directly into a local line and then into a region/national line, natural gas cannot be shipped via regional/national pipeline until it has been processed.

Again, I am being told that natural gas must first be gathered and processed by a processing plant before it can be placed in the "national natural gas pipeline system."

Natural gas can only (for all intents and purposes) be flared or removed from the well by pipeline; trucks are not used in the Bakken to transport natural gas from the well head.

If that is accurate, and again, I could be way, way wrong, but if that is accurate, one can easily tell from the NDIC "ticket stubs" whether wells are flaring and, to some extent, why they are flaring.

1. The first thing to do is look to see if any natural gas is being produced, sold, and/or flared. If natural gas is being produced/sold and absolutely none, zero, nada, zilch, is being flared, one can safely assume the well is hooked up to a pipeline.

2. Even if a well is hooked up to a natural gas pipeline, natural gas might still be flared. If a ticket stub shows that some natural gas is being sold, and some being flared, then one can safely assume that the well is hooked up to a natural gas line, but for some reason, not all of the natural gas was sold; some was flared.

3. If that's the case, some was sold, and some was flared, there is no way to know why. There are two main reasons: a) the processing plant was down for maintenance; b) the processing plant had reached capacity. I think there are ways to sort that out using just the ticket stubs, but it would be difficult, time-consuming, and still, just an educated guess.

So, with all that in mind, I picked, entirely random a starting point to pick ten Bakken wells. I picked #19001 to be the starting point. I could have picked #18000 or #17957 or #19745 or #25687, but I chose to pick #19001. Go with it.

I then took the first ten wells that were productive (#19003 was dry). The data is below. I only took enough data to determine whether the well was hooked up to a natural gas pipeline. Again, I am way beyond my expertise here and it's possible this whole post is inaccurate, but let's continue.

If I am correct, all ten (10) of the wells below are hooked up to a natural gas pipeline, and to a processing plant.

All ten (10) wells are by operators well established in the Bakken, so they understand the flaring issue.

All ten (10) wells are in the heart of the Bakken; no one can say these wells are in the remote sections of the North Dakota Bakken. In fact, some of the fields are downright saturated with Bakken wells: Sanish, Indian Hill, Van Hook, and especially Stockyard Creek east of Williston.

So, plenty of time, densely situated, and all hooked up to a natural gas pipeline, and yet eight of them still flare gas. Either the processing plants were down for maintenance (which is possible in some cases) or the processing plants were at capacity.

But simply placing more natural gas pipelines to mega-pads, as the article linked above suggests, seems not to be as simple as it sounds. We need to see some more natural gas processing plants being built. Don tells me (while writing this note), that it is fairly "easy" to expand existing natural gas processing plants, and if the mega-pad solution works, we should see new processing plants being built. So, we'll see. But just more pipeline is not the answer. (And maybe, to defend Motley Fool who are much smarter than I, they are implying that "natural gas pipeline" means the entire natural gas gathering and processing system.)

Again, I'm way out on a limb here; I could be way wrong, but this is how I learn about the Bakken. It is based on what readers have told me.

Two problems I have with the Motley Fool article. First this from the article:
The most effective way to do this would be, of course, to install natural gas pipelines to each pad, but, again, the amount of gas coming from a well or two makes it a very uneconomical decision. If you could install a gathering pipe for several wells, then you have a chance at making it happen.
The fields where these wells are located are saturated with wells; it's already equivalent to pad drilling and we still don't see an adequate number of natural gas processing plants, or better said, I suppose, an adequate capacity.

And the second point is simply a pet peeve. Motley Fool:
In fact, gas flaring is so prevalent in the region that it can be seen from space. 
In fact, one can see a lit cigarette from space. "Gas flaring is so prevalent in the [Bakken] that it can be seen from space." That quote is perpetuating a myth that the photo taken of the Bakken from space streamed around the world was, in fact, about 90% lighting from rigs and man-made structures associated with wells, farms, and communities; and, maybe 10% was actually flared gas. But all that "light" from the Bakken at night is hardly due to flaring natural gas. Just a pet peeve.

Anyway, here's the data. Ten (10) wells that have been around long enough to have had natural gas pipelines in place; in dense enough areas to warrant natural gas processing plants, and more than enough time to make it happen, and yet, of these ten wells, eight wells still flare, and in some cases, significantly so.

By the way, a takeaway from this little exercise: the operators have done their part in all ten of these wells: they have hooked up their wells to a natural gas pipeline. It is the "system" that has let them down, inadequate natural gas processing plants/capacity.

Again, this is my 2 cents worth, coming from someone with no formal education, training, or experience in the oil and gas industry, so I could be way wrong, but I'll throw it out there for consideration.

Hess, by the way, has a very, very strong natural gas history and it is not surprising that one of the two wells noted below that is not flaring, is a Hess well. The other one is a Slawson well, on the reservation, and in a fairly active area.

******************************

 19001, 618, Zenergy, Stepanek 8-5H, Indian Hill, t12/10; cum 151K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20131669544981467390511
BAKKEN8-20133020932246235020293121582

 19002, 2,130, Statoil, Smith Farm 23-14 1-H, Cow Creek, t10/10; cum 199K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2013302912273030932270222149
BAKKEN8-201331330931053420268426813

19003, DRY.

19004, 1,440, EOG, Mandaree 12-07H, Squaw Creek: 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2013301493157675518201508163
BAKKEN8-201331152114275981676882640

 19005, 1,289, Whiting, Satterthwaite 43-1H, Sanish, t2/11; cum 127K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201330213220951008244524450
BAKKEN8-20133124762399135031243020104

 19006, 823, KOG, 20711 Kreidle 3229 1H, Stockyard Creek, t7/11; cum 195K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201330381338114274424204152
BAKKEN8-2013314331432736604201144098

 19007, 372, Hess, EN-Will Trust B-157-94-2635H-3, Big Butte, t12/10; cum 69K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201351922092306556550
BAKKEN8-20133112541250937300730070

 19008, 2,804, Statoil, Brakken 30-31 1H, Catwalk, t12/10; cum 164K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201330275721613001263902639
BAKKEN8-201330262634543532179701797
BAKKEN7-201331197616942648102601026
BAKKEN6-201317123762514875739564
BAKKEN5-201331192923662712168461678
BAKKEN4-2013302622253319753449483401
BAKKEN3-201331267229231948321603216
BAKKEN2-2013282808265218543302193283
BAKKEN1-20132929492963154425234822041

 19009, 651, CLR, Bonneville 3-23H, Rattlesnake Point, t12/10; cum 199K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201330334734211450354735470
BAKKEN8-201331371836401533397639760
BAKKEN7-2013314113414517753591353655
BAKKEN6-2013212271247210922103206736
BAKKEN5-20133139354014171940243909115

 19010, 847, Slawson, Armada Federal 1-14-13H, Van Hook, t10/10; cum 245K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201330317827451848207219220
BAKKEN8-201310590630106169190
BAKKEN7-201325303933981101166014100


19011, 725, CLR, Bridger 3-13H, Rattlesnake Point, t12/10; cum 206K 9/13:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20133035443281862381038100
BAKKEN8-20133138263898923440144010
BAKKEN7-201331368337009183564353430
BAKKEN6-2013303878398494742824160122
BAKKEN5-2013314247440898343954275120
BAKKEN4-201330435442211053420842080
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