Absolutely Hilarious -- Warren Buffett's Sundae And The Cherry On Top -- October 5, 2022

Having a significant position in CVX, I've followed the Venezuela - CVX story closely for years.

Under President Trump the situation looked dire and serious.

Now under the Biden administration, things are looking simply grand. LOL. 

Consider all the things going "right" for Warren Buffett this past year and consider all that his sundae.

Today, Venezuela - Chevron -- that's the cherry on his sundae. LOL.

Think of Chevron's oil in Venezuela as "stranded" assets. Maybe, under Biden, not so stranded.

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Biden's Green Administration
Is Certainly Focused On Oil

I haven't seen anyone talk about this but isn't it interesting how much time and energy the Biden green administration puts into oil.

Gasoline Demand -- October 5, 2022

Before we get started, so it's not lost in all the clutter, the amount of oil in the US measured in days of supply, link here: 26.8 days; down from 26.9 days last week.

• this is pretty much the "goldilocks" number
• at 21 days and trending down, it would be concerning for the American consumer;
• at 30+ days and trending up, it would be concerning for oil traders and investors;

Bottom line: Warren Buffett is likely very happy with all the data coming out today and all the geo-political news coming out of the Mideast, Ukraine, and Washington, DC.

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Gasoline Demand

Now back to gasoline demand.

Link here.

Graph B: the original graphic without any comment.

Graph A: with comments --

• back during the summer the EIA delayed posting some of the weekly data, citing technical difficulties without any further explanation;
• the data posted at that time seemed a bit unusual, giving rise to analysts doubting the veracity of the EIA
• over the past ten days or so, the EIA has been revising their data and re-posting it; some revisions are incredibly large according to some analysts, again raising questions about the original data;
• bottom line: it's hard to believe that gasoline demand is surging in September / October, after peak driving season has ended;
• in addition, the rate of increase in gasoline demand is quite remarkable, especially considering this is coming after peak driving season
• it is true that the price of gasoline has come down and that might drive some gasoline demand, but it is curious.

Graph A, additional comments:

• the line graph is the four-week average;
• the weekly data is posted at the bottom, left-hand corner of the graphic
• note the trend, data in millions of barrels
• most recent week: 9.465 which exceeds the year-ago demand (9.427)
• previous week: 8.825
• week before : 8.322
• so, the weekly demand is increasing, which suggests next week's four-week average will also show another increase in gasoline demand

So, gasoline demand is increasing:

• at an unusual time of the year;
• just as OPEC+ decides to cut production by two million bopd; and,

Having said that, from my perspective, there is more than enough oil sloshing around to meet gasoline demand; the real story seems to be the tight distillate / diesel fuel situation.

It's hard to believe that this is not seen as bullish for oil investors and/or traders.

Petro-Hunt With Two New Permits -- October 5, 2022

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $87.97.

Natural gas: $6.940.

Two new permits, #39239 - #39294, inclusive:

• Operator: Petro-Hunt
• Field: Boxcar Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments: 
• Petro-Hunt has permits for two Hot Rod wells, SWNW 27-149-102 and NWSW 27-149-102, 
• to be sited 2616 FNL and 389 FWL; and, 2568 FSL and 389 FWL

One permit renewed: an SWD permit.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35155, 1,212, Bulllberry Federal 24X-2C, Lost Bridge, t--; minimal production;
• 35789, 1,212, Bullberry Federal 24X-2DR, Lost Bridge, t--; minimal production;
• 38576, n/d, Slawson, Howitzer 4-25H, Big Bend, t--; cum 28K 8/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2022	27	20561	20175	27265	19955	0	19820
BAKKEN	7-2022	17	7244	6671	17738	7017	0	6933

For The Archives -- Nothing About The Bakken -- The Good Life -- October 5, 2022

If you don't like to read about grandparents having a great time with their grandchildren, do not read this post.

In fact, there's no reason to read this post at all. It's for the archives, although there might be some "marketing" pointers everyone can use. 

Granddaughter Sophia had a half-day of school today, released just before noon: teacher conferences. 

Whoo-hoo.

Sophia suggested a picnic in the park, so we put together a picnic lunch and headed for the park. The park is a small green space surrounded by upscale restaurants and an outdoor mall. 

Surprise, surprise! She found her friends here.

I sat on a park bench, and lo and behold, a neighboring restaurant offered free wi-fi. 

Whoo-hoo!

I told Sophia I was headed for The Thirsty Lion for a drink and she could join me when/if she wanted.

Because things are slow this time of day, the restaurant has no trouble with me staying as long as I want and letting Sophia come back and forth to the outdoor patio as much as she wants. She and her friends are playing cornhole on the dining patio, and playing soccer and doing gymnastics in the park. 

Sophia has ordered one of those huge pretzels she will share with her friends.

Meanwhile, I'm sipping an old-fashioned, blogging, watching the news, and sports on their big screen. 

The interesting thing is this: I would not be here if it weren't for the free wi-fi. 

It was free in the park. Absolutely free.

But I felt guilty using their wi-fi and not "paying" them for it. Some folks might understand.

So, I came over, found the manager and told her that the only reason I'm here to order an expensive cocktail is because of the free wi-fi they provide anyone who even comes close to the restaurant. 

Her friends have left, winding down, with cold Texas water and a huge pretzel. Life is good.

Posed / publicity / file photo:

Photo by Sophia taken with an Apple iPad Pro.

ISO NE "Net Imports" As Part Of Resource Mix -- October 5, 2022

Overnight, holy mackerel, ISO NE had to import 24% of its electricity supply to meet demand, in the middle of the night:

ISO NE resource mix, percent imports, link here: 

• announcement, August 11, 2022
• net import values represent the electricity imported across the region’s tie lines to neighboring grids, less that being exported.

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Percent Imports

Re-posting from the other day:

Link here: percent imports in the resource mix.

The highest I have seen to date is 16% -- which I saw overnight, October 2 - October 3, 2022.