The Denouement -- May 4, 2020

Two days ago (Saturday), I posted this:

Johnny Appleseed: And we close with this .... social distancing south of Fargo, ND, winter:

Mr Vern Whitten sent that to me. What a great photo. He calls it "social distancing." Vern says he took the photo a couple of years back but it must have stuck in his mind all these years.

And now the denouement.

In that note, Mr Whitten said, after all these years, he remained curious why that single tree was there? Was there a back story?

This is what Mr Whitten found out about that lone tree:

I received a deluge of comments and questions on the tree. Here are a few:

"Is the tree alive? Do they often get hit by lightning? Was it part of a farmstead? There is a tree like that near where I grew up. Maybe his dog is buried there. I wonder how it grew to maturity without getting chopped down or killed by herbicide over-spray?

Beautiful but lonely.

That is AWESOME. You made my day."

I decided it needed further investigation.

On Google Earth, May 2018, it looks very much alive and well, lat 46.738, long -96.811.

A neighbor to the north was able to connect me with the farmer.

Both these gentlemen are in their mid 80s.

The farmer has retired, but he remembers the tree very well.

It was part of an east-west row of elms, and this tree is the lone survivor. The others succumbed to Dutch Elm disease and were removed 15-20 years ago.

And that was the rest of the story. I found it fascinating, imagining these farmers trying hard to save these trees, and in the end, able to save one. What a great story. 

"Social distancing."

For those interested in a huge catalogue of North Dakota prints visit www.vernwhitenphotography.com.

Canadian Dollar Drops Below 70 Cents -- May 4, 2020

On April 14, 2020, I wrote that the "alarm" for the Canadian dollar will be if it hits 66 US cents. I would consider, for Canada, 68 cents worrisome.

Today?

The Canadian dollar went a tad under 69 US cents before it recovered a bit and closed at $0.706.

Link here.

See If You Can Spot The Three "Mistakes" In This Video; Nothing About The Bakken -- May 4, 2020

Video at this link.

Screenshots below.

I "lumped" the mistakes into three categories. See if you can spot them at the video.

The answers are posted below the screenshots.

*****************************

Screenshots And The Answers

Name at least three things wrong with this video.

**************************************

Answers

1. No one is wearing a mask.

2. Everyone has a nice haircut, even though all barber shops and hair salons are supposed to be closed.

3.  The four folks "on stage" appear to be significantly less than six feet apart.

Extra credit:

4. No television sign language interpreter.

Extra extra credit:

5. No racial diversity?

Extra extra extra credit:

6. The governor appears not to be wearing a US flag pin.

MRO Reports A Huge Well In Reunion Bay -- May 4, 2020

The well:

• 35424, SI/A, MRO, Frances USA11-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 162K over three months; see below; another update here;
  

35424:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	50326	50079	31219	39249	0	35316
BAKKEN	2-2020	28	40569	40680	29255	30863	0	27710
BAKKEN	1-2020	28	70751	70373	64655	71883	0	67083

Three neighboring wells, running parallel to Frances (#35424) but running in opposite direction, running from the south to the north:

• 19833, 1,458 MRO Shirley Pennington USA 14-22H, Reunion Bay, t8/11; cum 361K 3/20; was off line 11/19 through 2/20; back on line in 3/20 for eighteen days, small jump in production;
• 16687, 600, MRO, Bottleson 34-22H, Reunion Bay, t11/08; cum 458K 3/20; was off line 8/19 through 2/20; back on line in 3/20 for nineteen days, no evidence of jump in production (yet);
• 36663, drl, MRO, SURA USA 44-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 130K over 3 months:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	33748	33719	34289	38646	0	36289
BAKKEN	2-2020	28	28988	28916	33733	31755	0	29736
BAKKEN	1-2020	26	67565	67030	84218	71803	0	67329

The new 34xxx and later MRO wells in Reunion Bay are incredible wells. In addition, we should see a fair number of older wells positive impacted when these newer MRO wells are completed. 

New Official Currency Goes Into Effect This Week In Iran -- May 4, 2020

This is a fascinating story sent to me by an alert reader. I would have missed it.

Effective today: the toman is now the official currency of Iran, replacing the rial.

Read the wiki entry for background. 

Data points:

• Iran introduces a new currency: the toman
• the toman will be worth 10,000 rials (the current "dollar" in Iran)

My first thought when I saw this:

• Does this suggest hyper-inflation coming?

Both currencies will be legal tender, moving side-by-side, in Iran for two years, at which time the rial will disappear.

If a loaf of bread ends up costing one toman (the new currency), the individual who has only rials will have to take a wheelbarrow full of rials (10,000 rials to one toman) to buy a loaf of bread.

Actually that's not quite true: see below. A commonly used banknote in Iran is/was the 10,000 rial banknote, enough to buy one loaf of bread.

However, that naturally led to the next question. What does a loaf of bread cost in Iran?

How very interesting. From last spring, April 30, 2019:

• bread has always been the cheapest essential food in Iran
• bread is usually heavily subsidized by the government
• officially the price of bread in Iran is about 7,500 rials or 50 - 60 US cents
• last spring Iranian bread was selling for 20,000 rials (about $1.50/loaf)
• food prices rose dramatically in 2019, as the rial dropped fourfold in value against foreign currencies
• inflation, one year ago, hovered around 50%
• food prices may have increased as much as 85% between 2018 and 2019
• the president vetoed a recommendation to increase the price of bread back in 2017, but since then, loaves have been thinner, lighter in weight (sort of like Apple iPads) and lower in quality (unlike Apple iPads)

So, one can see why Iran needed to introduce the new toman.

The country has effectively "knocked" four zeroes off the rial to make a single toman.

Previously (as of yesterday):

• banknotes frequently used: denominations of 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, 50,000 and upwards to one million rials
• coins frequently used: 1,000; 2,000, and 5,000 rials

Now, I suppose:

• banknotes: denominations of 5, 10, 20, and 50 tomans
• coins currently used: worthless

Something tells me this does not bode well for Iran.