Sunday, March 29, 2020

Breaking News -- Public School Closure Extended Another Two Week -- March 29, 2020

This was just announced by our granddaughters' school district in north Texas. I assume this will occur across most (if not all) of Texas. Public schools will remain closed two weeks beyond the original date. Schools will now be closed through April 17. Easter is Sunday, April 19, 2020.

Good call.

Many states have announced their public schools will be closed for the rest of this academic year. I assume that will eventually be announced in Texas.

These states have already announced that they will remain closed through the end of this academic year:
  • Kansas
  • New Mexico
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
Two words: Betsy DeVos. Wow, wow, wow. I had not seen this article until just now, seeing it after my earlier note suggesting that Ms DeVos should take "advantage" of this crisis.
On Friday afternoon, education secretary Betsy DeVos spoke as part of the coronavirus task force presentation. In eight and a half minutes, DeVos touched on several points, including indications that she may try to use the widespread pandemic-driven shutdown to create a path to national school vouchers.
After thinking Trump for his “clear-eyed leadership,” plus a few other nods to her boss, DeVos moved on some actions the department is taking.
First, as most states are already aware, the federal government has waived the mandate for this year’s Big Standardized Test.
Next, she attempted to clarify the department’s stance on education for special needs students. This has been a point of concern for many school districts; if distance learning or other solutions cannot be made available to all students, including those with special needs, then that would be illegal. The department has said A) yes, it would be illegal and B) school districts should not let that hold them back. On Friday, DeVos emphasized both messages. She stated that the transition to online or distance learning must happen quickly and “it needs to include meaningful instruction and supports for children with disabilities.” She followed that immediately with “Learning should not stop or be denied because schools fear federal regulators.”
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Gamine

It all started with Audrey Hepburn earlier today. I was watching "Love in the Afternoon" on TCM. I was curious what the reviews had to say about it and happened to read one review in TV Guide:
Filmed in Paris at the Studios de Boulogne, the Opera, the Chateau de Vitry, and in various suburban settings, there's no question that LOVE IN THE AFTERNOON had great locations going for it.
It also had the winsome charm of Hepburn, the elfin puckishness of Chevalier, a literate script by Wilder and Diamond, and an airy feeling that wafted the audience along.
What it didn't have going for it was a leading man--Gary Cooper could be many things, but as the lead in a romantic comedy, he fell short.
Not that he'd never done it before. Cooper had made several pictures in which he handled comedy lines with aplomb, but he was pushing 56 at the time and looking too long in the tooth to be playing opposite the gamine Hepburn.
Later at the park, while Sophia was riding her bike, I was re-reading The Weil Conjectures: On Math and the Pursuit of the Unknown by Karen Olsson, c. 2019. I saw the word "gamine" and wondered if I had put it on Arianna's word list. I had not, so I added it to her list.

Then, of all things, I am now watching TCM's "The Heart Is A Lonely Hunter," with Alan Arkin and Sandra Locke. I was curious. How did Sandra Locke get her start? Again, a most interesting backstory over at wiki.

And there it was again, "gamine."

"The Heart Is A Lonely Hunter" was Locke's film debut, garnering her an Academy Award nomination. From wiki:
For the "Heart" audition, then-fiancĂ© Gordon Anderson gave his bride a so-called Hollywood makeover: he bound her bosom, bleached her eyebrows and carefully applied her makeup so as to create a more gamine appearance. They also lied about her age, shaving off six years to seem younger – a pretense Locke would keep up for the rest of her career. After three auditions, she was cast in the role.
Gamine. What are the odds? Three times in three very different sources in one afternoon.

Closer Look At An EOG Well Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- March 29, 2020

The well:
33432, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 43-1109H, 33-061-04028, Parshall, fracked, 7/6/19- 8/6/19; 14.8 million gallons of water (huge amount, typical for EOG; 84.2% water by mass; friction reduce, 0.3390; compared to dozens of individual ingredients usually seen at FracFocus in a frack slurry, EOG lists only seven (does not include water and sand [other solids])
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2020188063562
12-2019241548565
11-20192932111806
10-20194036923463

One can start to see the reason fracking costs can account for 2/3rds the cost of drilling/completing a well -- a typical Bakken well is drilled in seven to ten days; fracking is taking up to a month.

The graphics:



Now isn't this interesting? I never expected this, completely missed this (I probably posted it earlier but if so, completely forgot).

Look at this well with a very, very old permit number (from 2012, to be exact):
  • 23958, 2,719, EOG, Liberty LR 107-1109H, Parshall, t9/19; cum 178K in less than five months; cum 178K 1/20; TD = 21,848 feet; fracked 8/5/19; 53 stages; 22.81 million lbs of sand, all 100 mesh sand; 12.5 million gallons of water; 
From the file report:
  • permit and preliminary work says target was Three Forks; drilling unit, 1920-acre; the drilling report states the target was the middle Bakken, and the stimulation formation was the "Bakken"; sundry form received March 25, 2019, request to change target formation from Three Forks to Bakken;
  • a sundry form received September 9, 2016: request to extend permit for an additional year; the APD was originally approved on October 1, 2012;
  • a sundry form received September 25, 2017: request for one-year extension on the permit;
  • note: APD -- application for permit development
Full production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20203121837217703670117556171914
BAKKEN12-201931271282719145940152971497013
BAKKEN11-20193035307353465904019680174121918
BAKKEN10-20193138687391807223926707246251716
BAKKEN9-20192555045541599509838709378650

Other wells:
  • 20038, 625, EOG, Liberty LR 12-11H, Parshall, t4/25/12; cum 266K 1/20; full production profile here; tested 4/21/12; 42stages, 4.9 million lbs, all sand;

De Blasio -- Never Mind -- March 29, 2020

Is filming "Saturday Night Live" still considered an "essential" activity in NYC?

From today's daily note:



Comments:
  • China's numbers can be dispensed with; no one believes them
  • Iran's numbers can be dispensed; no one believes them -- although probably more accurate than China's
  • more cases in the US than any other country in the world (may or may not be true if one includes China)
  • total number of new cases in US: 7,825 ("today") -- most of any country in the entire universe;
  • total number of new cases in New York: 7,131 ("yesterday) -- accounts for more than 90% of all new cases in the US
Well documented:
  • as late as February 27, 2020, the mayor of NYC was downplaying the coronavirus
  • never shut down the subway; encouraged folks to use it; did not change subway precautions;
  • kept hotels, restaurants open; welcomed tourists, business travelers to the city
Wallet Hub: "ranking" severely questions criteria used. New York is ranked #7 in its efforts to stop coronavirus. Number of new cases in last 24 hours accounts for 91% of all new cases in the US. NYC is on track to exceed number of cases in all countries in the world.

Toilet paper:
"They" say the reason for the "run" on food at grocery stores -- particularly, beef -- was due to the fact that Americans took upwards of 60% of their meals outside the home, and thus the run on food -- particularly beef --  was simply Americans restocking their pantries now that they were homebound and eating at home.
Now, toilet paper.

Let's re-write that first paragraph with emphasis on toilet paper:
"They" say the reason for the "run" on toilet paper at grocery stores was due to the fact that Americans took upwards of 60% of their bathroom breaks outside the home, and thus the run on toilet paper was simply Americans restocking their bathrooms now that they were homebound and pooping at home.
Just saying. 
On another note: liquor stores. I honestly do not know if liquor stores are open in our area. I have not checked. [Later: see first comment: apparently liquor stores are open in Texas.] I asked one person: that person said "no, liquor is not essential."
Actually, this should not be taken lightly. My hunch is that a lot of diagnosed and undiagnosed alcoholics have severe alcohol intake. Abruptly stopping their alcohol could result in death and/or other non-fatal serious consequencs. One of thousands of links.
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Back to New York

From Power Line:
Yesterday (March 28), new reported deaths in the U.S. from the Wuhan coronavirus exceeded 500 for the first day ever, according to Worldometer. On March 26, the daily death count was half of what it was yesterday.
The New York City pandemic is driving the increase. The pandemic there shows no sign of abating, and the high number of new reported cases from New York might well drive the daily national death count higher for weeks to come.
A key question for me is whether other big metropolitan areas will experience New York-like pandemics. New York, of course, is larger and more compact than other major cities, and, as I understand it, had more contact with Chinese nationals during January and February.
Thus, there’s reason to hope that no metropolitan area will be hammered by the virus to the extent New York has been. But there’s also reason to fear that we will see several mini New Yorks before long.
In Western Europe, meanwhile, the daily death figures (as reported by Worldometer) are inching towards 1,000 in Italy and Spain, and new reported cases in both countries are also rising. The number of daily reported deaths have held steady the past few days in France (at around 300) and Germany (at around 80). Great Britain reported 181 deaths on March 27 and 260 yesterday.

Completion Strategies, Bakken 4.0, Whiting, WPX -- March 29, 2020

Completion strategies, Bakken 4.0, Whiting. For more, see completion strategies, Bakken 4.0, linked at the sidebar at the right.

Case studies, two WPX wells coming off confidential list this next week:
  • 36502, drl, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HW,  33-025-03824, South Fork, t--; cum 8K over 23 days; fracked 1/9/20 - 1/17/20; 4.9 million gallons of water; 83.3% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.02466, extremely low on a percentage basis;
  • 36503, drl, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HA, 33-025-03825, South Fork,  t--; cum 10K over 22 days; fracked 1/8/20 - 1/17/20; 4.9 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass; friction reducer: 0.02537, extremely low on a percentage basis;
Example of portion of FracFocus report:


Frack data that catches my attention:
  • total gallons of water, less than 6 million gallons or more than 12 million gallons
  • percentage of water by mass: less than 88% or more than 92% 
  • friction reduction by percent: less than 0.04000 or more than 0.05000 (a reader brought this to my attention, thank you very much)

Lime Rock Reports Two Nice Cabernet Oil Wells This Next Week -- March 29, 2020

On October 15, 2015, I blogged that OXY had exited the Bakken. Its history in the Bakken was bleak to say the least. Lime Rock Resources acquired the OXY assets in Cabernet oil field, perhaps one of the best oil fields in the Bakken. Compare Lime Rock experience with OXY's experience in the Cabernet. There's more to the Bakken than just "lady luck."

Two Lime Rock wells coming off confidential list this next week, week of March 29, 2020. Not particularly great, but not particularly bad either, and certainly much better than what we saw when OXY was drilling this area. At least that was my observation. Could be wrong. Usually am.
  • 35965, 1,028, Lime Rock Resources, Karyk 7-24-13H-144-97L, 33-025-03654, Cabernet,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202031114251121817038213501208
BAKKEN12-20193114383145662285117310627
BAKKEN11-201930172141715626709364502379
BAKKEN10-20191915516151101830713230260
BAKKEN9-201954068378412224700
  • 36128, conf, Lime Rock Resources, State 7-25-36H-144-97L, 33-025-03719, Cabernet,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2020214900
12-2019233880
11-2019116790
10-201972090