Monday, September 30, 2019

Four Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- September 30, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Monday, September 30, 2019: 73 for the month; 205 for the quarter:
  • 35628, 649, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife, t7/19; cum 38K 8/19;
  • 33592, 247, BR, Anderson Ranch 1E MBH, Camel Butte, t7/19; cum --;
Sunday, September 29, 2019: 71 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
  • 35312, 1,443, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1, East Fork, t5/19; cum 37K 8/19;
  • 34825, 988, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H, Elk, t4/19; cum 116K 8/19;
Saturday, September 28, 2019: 69 for the month; 201 for the quarter:
  • None.
Active rigs:

$55.109/30/201909/30/201809/30/201709/30/201609/30/2015
Active Rigs5867583368

RBN Energy: is the Permian natural gas price real?
After months of severe natural gas pipeline constraints, Permian producers and shippers are reveling in the relief of new takeaway capacity. Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express (GCX) Pipeline, which began flowing initial volumes in mid-August, last week began full commercial service on its 2-Bcf/d greenfield route from the Permian to South Texas. Actual volumes on GCX are hard to come by, but all indications are that flows are ramping to near capacity. That surge in Permian outflows in recent weeks has propelled natural gas prices at the regional benchmark Waha Hub — which traded as low as $5.00/MMBtu below zero earlier this year and fell into negative territory as recently as August 8 — to nearly $2/MMBtu, levels not seen at the hub since last winter. However, with the sting from negative prices only now just fading, many in the market are wondering if this rally is here to stay or just a temporary reprieve. Today, we look at the latest developments in the Permian natural gas market.
Permian gas prices have been fun to follow, if not trade, this year, and have provided the fodder for many an RBN blog of late. With GCX entering full service, it looks like prices have really turned the corner, at least for a little while. As an intrastate pipeline — entirely situated within Texas state lines — GCX isn’t required to post daily flow data like federally regulated interstate pipelines do. But comments from the company suggest the pipe was flowing close to 1 Bcf/d a couple of weeks ago, and industry chatter since then suggests that it has continued to ramp up and is perhaps now close to its capacity of 2 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan also confirmed on September 24 that the pipeline is now fully operational. The incremental takeaway capacity from GCX has almost instantaneously eased what had become crippling transportation constraints for moving gas supply out of the Permian. That, in turn, has allowed regional gas prices to soar, at least on a relative basis compared to where they were in the summer, providing much-needed relief to Permian producers and their likely exhausted gas marketers.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

A CLR Hereford Federal Well Is Finally Producing -- September 29, 2019

Note: since one can't click on links from the comments, I've brought these comments up here. First, from a reader:
Elm Tree is the best field in the Bakken in terms of average well cumulative, per Shaleprofile.com.

There is a lot of variation in quality by year though. Mostly getting better over time, albeit, the best year was actually a small number of wells in 2016.
Impression I have is that they have gotten better in frac jobs,but also that the 2017 infill was pretty heavy with tight spacing, fighting some of the benefit in frac improvement.

And an odd pattern of development (probably from land issues). Several years of only a few wells per year and then a load of 2017/2018 wells by CLR.

There are three operators there, CLR (101 wells), Hess (13 wells), Slawson (4 wells).
Now, my reply:
I used to track the various fields in the Bakken to help me better understand what was going on. I haven't updated most of them in a long, long time, now that I have a better feeling for them.

Here is the list of fields I have updated over the years:
For quite awhile, I tracked productivity by field, again, to give me an idea of what was going on. That was labor intensive, so I haven't done it in a long time. One can see those lists by clicking on this URL and wading through a lot of posts:
 Original Post

Wow, this is pretty cool. From an earlier note:
  • September 12, 2019: #32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 0; has never produced anything; no frack data; API: 33-053-07430; FracFocus says fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; 8/19; still confidential, but production being posted; wow! 8/19 --producing!
Checking in on this well tonight: it is still confidential, but it is producing!

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201935055041

Good luck to the "mom-and-pop" mineral owners on this one! 

MRO Wells In Chimney Butte Recently Completed/Fracked -- September 29, 2019

These three wells are still being reported as DUCs, but as least one has been fracked according to FracFocus, and so I assume all three have been fracked:
  • 36108,
  • 36265, SI/NC, recently fracked; MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 36266,
What makes this so cool, through pure serendipity I found two good wells were recently taken off line. That often means one thing in the Bakken: neighbors being fracked. The two wells recently taken off line:
  • 16908, 248, MRO, Marlin 14-12H, Chimney Butte, t3/08; cum 154K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
  • 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 354K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
So, we'll check back in on these wells in a few months.

The BR Dakotan Wells Coming Back On Line -- September 29, 2019

After being off line for about a year, these wells are now coming back on line. I will update their 8/19 production when it becomes available:
January 10, 2019: #30090, #30091, #30092; neighboring well recently fracked. Still off line as of 6/19; wells back on line as of 7/19; with nice production;
One of the three wells:
  • 30092, 2,664, BR, CCU Dakota 7-8-17MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 242K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201927258224912684278011051601
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-201800200000
BAKKEN11-20183149129255460
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-201800650000
BAKKEN5-20181691698011632261810
BAKKEN4-2018271682181818597947170
BAKKEN3-2018311704182921597076150
BAKKEN2-2018281758175224594293370
BAKKEN1-2018311593148825723172140
BAKKEN12-201731101479028842541530

Futures -- Sunday Night -- September 29, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures don't mean a thing, but all things being equal, I'd rather see "green" than "red" any time, and futures are "green" right now -- 5:33 p.m. CT, September 29, 2019.

I've sure there have been similar periods, but it's not often one sees a market that really, really wants to take off, but is held back by uncertainty. Huge uncertainty.

Recession is just around the corner. From zerohedge a couple of days ago, "UMich confidence rebounds but democrats get more depressed."That sounds like a political cheap shot, but actually is not, surprisingly. Read on:
The preliminary UMich data showed a modest rebound in September after August's collapse and final data confirmed that trend continued into the end of the month.

UMich notes that impeachments divert the attention of the President and Congress away from economic policies, and may become conflated with partisan strategies. 
The big divergence was, once again, political as Dems confidence slumped to 72.0 vs 75.7 and Reps confidence rose to 119.5 from 112.8.
Despite the high levels of confidence, consumers have also expressed rising levels of economic uncertainty. Some of these concerns are rooted in partisanship, some due to conditions in the global economy (Brexit, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China), and some are tied to domestic economic policies. 
Trade policies have had the greatest negative impact on consumers, with a near record one-third of all consumers negatively mentioning trade policies in September when asked to explain in their own words the factors underlying their economic expectations.
And I'll bet not one respondent in a 1,000 even knew what was going in trade. I've never been called by UMich for any of their surveys.

Tesla 3Q19 sales. Wow, this will be fun to watch. Get out the popcorn. Predictions all over the board. The consensus is that Elon Musk will crush the numbers, and the shares of TSLA will surge. Not everyone agrees. From zerohedge again:
Well known Tesla analyst and skeptic, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research says in his latest note that Tesla's Q3 aggregated cars sold should fall 38.6% on a sequential basis, a result he simply refers to as "bad".
We might know as early as October 3, 2018, Friday, the numbers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

T: ATT plans to return capital to its shareholders. I'll believe it when I see it.