Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Hot In Dallas -- August 13, 2019

Texas electricity used to be dirt (coal)-cheap but with all the craziness of faux environmentalists, we are now paying outrageous prices for wind power. From zerohedge;
Power demand in Texas hit a record high on Monday as consumers turned up their air conditioners to escape a heatwave that is boiling much of the southern Plains over the next 7-10 days.
"A large ridge of high pressure has anchored itself across the southern Plains over the last 7-10 days, promoting significant heat across Texas. As of Tuesday morning, Dallas has reached 100°F each of the last 4 days, while Houston's Intercontinental Airport has hit 101°F each of the past 5 days."
ERCOT Houston MW-hour jumped from $25 to $603 on August 12, a +2,237% move in 1,440 minutes.
But at least no brownouts or blackouts. Business as usual.

**********************************
Soccer

Sophia has her first outdoor soccer practice tonight at 6:00 p.m. It should be cooler by then; maybe 97 degrees.

**********************************
The Music Page
Here, Hold My Beer

Over at "YouTube Fugue," I have a page devoted to 1969:
There was an 18-month-period, from late 1968 through mid-1970 that clearly had some of the best music ever.  This was the year of Woodstock. The Beatles were still going strong, but touring less, and would soon stop completely.  Led Zeppelin's first two albums, Zeppelin I and Zeppelin II, were released in 1969. The era of "free love" and the uncertainties of the Vietnam War probably contributed to some of this really incredible music. Speaking of the Vietnam war, I turned 18 in 1969. My lottery draft was July 1, 1970; my lottery number was 103. The highest lottery number called for this group was 125; all men assigned that lottery number or any lower number, and who were classified as available for military service, were called to report for possible induction. I would have been deferred by virtue of being enrolled in college. I was worried that I would be called up before I graduated from college. I was convinced, but wrong, that the war would still be going on when I graduated from college.
For some reason, my "go-to" radio station in the DFW area has Norman Greenbaum/"Spirit In The Sky" (1969) in rotation. It's getting a lot of airtime recently. I don't why.

From wiki:
"Spirit in the Sky" makes several religious references to Jesus, although Greenbaum is Jewish. In a 2006 interview with the New York Times, Greenbaum told a reporter he was inspired to write the song after watching Porter Wagoner singing a gospel song on TV. Greenbaum said: "I thought, 'Yeah, I could do that,' [ "here, hold my beer"] knowing nothing about gospel music, so I sat down and wrote my own gospel song. It came easy. I wrote the words in 15 minutes."
Best line: "A psychedelic Christian song, written and performed by an Orthodox Jew. Only in America, only in 1969." [Only in 1969; best year ever for music.]

Which leads me to ...

Not Fair, Lily Allen


And I do believe that Porter Wagoner, the singer, was re-incarnated at Brad Keselowski the NASCAR race driver.

WTI Surges 3.5%; Trading At Nearly $57; Active Rigs At 61; Eight New Permits -- August 13, 2019

API: weekly inventory US crude oil inventory up by 3.7 million bbls. I'm sure this was a surprise, also. [Later: and there it is -- it was another "surprise." LOL]. Headline at oilprice
Surprise Crude Build Reverses Earlier Oil Price Gains 
Analysts didn't even guess correctly on the direction.

Analysts forecast a "decline" in US crude oil inventories. In fact, it was an "increase," and not trivial: a build of almost 4 million bbls. Analysts had expected a 2.761 million bbl draw (note the false precision).

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$56.878/13/201908/13/201808/13/201708/13/201608/13/2015
Active Rigs6160573372

Eight new permits, #36840 - #36847, inclusive):
  • Operators: Hess (4); MRO (4)
  • Fields: Tioga (Mountrail), Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for a 4-well TI-State pad in Tioga oil field, lot 4/section 31-158-94;
    • MRO has permits for a 4-well Akko/Aslak/Donaason/Nokelby pad in Reunion Bay, section 21-151-93
Eight permits renewed:
  • Equinor (3): three Maring permits in Williams County
  • Whiting (3): three Wold Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Oasis (2): a Pederson permit in McKenzie County and an Erickson permit in Burke County
Four permits canceled:
  • QEP: four MHA permits in section 23-148-92, Dunn County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed -- except it wasn't:
  • 35288, SI/NC, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 1-27HU, Pembroke. Whiting received a letter from the NDIC dated July 8, 2019, that the permit would expire as of August 7, 2019. Back in August, 2018, Whiting had the standard request to waive open hole logs; the plan called for a 30-stage frack by Halliburton; paperwork lags but the NDIC map suggests that Whiting is drilling this pad -- it looks they got the letter, and began drilling; probably completed by August 7 and now remains a DUC.

Australia -- Won't Be Left Behind -- August 13, 2019

A reader caught this interesting note in a reply to this story.
Meanwhile….good news for oil production and energy self sufficiency in Australia:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-12/multi-billion-dollar-oil-project-using-fracking-west-kimberley/11389046
“A network of oil wells that involve fracking in the Great Sandy Desert, connected by pipelines to new and existing ports, may become Australia’s biggest oil producing project.

“Documents on the website of privately owned Theia Energy, some of which have since been removed, say they have found as much as 57 billion barrels of oil in the desert location 150 kilometres south-east of Broome.

“The oil find is described as “unconventional” meaning it is locked in dense rock that will need hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to allow the oil to flow to the surface.

“Theia Energy, a small and privately owned Perth-based company, was created in 2018 when Finder Exploration split into Finder Energy for its offshore projects and Theia Energy for its onshore Great Sandy Desert Project. Theia Energy is in negotiations with the Karajarri traditional owners of the area to gain permission to confirm commercial flow rates of oil by fracking rock over a kilometre underground. [For the record, Bakken operators frack at a depth of almost two miles below ground.]

“Leading the negotiations on behalf of traditional owners is Karajarri Traditional Lands Association chairman Thomas King. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

*********************************
No Segue
I thought of this while posting links to the "C Rock."

The average university / college in the US:
  • alpha males / all males enrolled: 25 / 100
The Ivy League universities / colleges in the US:
  • alpha males / all males enrolled: 99 / 100
The same statistics apply to women in the same universities.

Random Update: The Enerplus "Cat" Wells -- August 13, 2019

The Enerplus "Cat" wells have been updated.

Some of these wells are barely a year old and have produced more than 300,000 bbls of oil.
  • 31130, 2,184, Enerplus, Persian 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 342K 6/19;
  • 31126, 817, Enerplus, Bengal 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek,  t5/18; cum 304K 6/19;
  • 31129, 3,204, Enerplus, Siamese 148-93-31D-30H, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 303K 6/19;
  • 31125, 2,388, Enerplus, Calico 148-93-31D-30H, Moccasin Creek, t5/18; cum 300K 6/19;
This page will not be updated; the Enerplus "Cat" wells are tracked and updated at the link above.

Random Note On The BR Veeder Wells In Blue Buttes -- August 13, 2019

Several months ago, I opined that starting this year or next, we would start seeing a surge of wells go over the threshold of 500,000 bbls of crude oil production in the Bakken. I was thinking about the Legacy wells, the wells that had been drilled early in the boom.

I never expected to see so many recently drilled wells going over 500,000 bbls of crude oil but look at these Veeder wells drilled two years ago:
  • 32909, 441, BR, Lillibridge 3B UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 410K 6/19;
  • 32910, 555, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 481K 6/19;
  • 33043, 290, BR, Veeder 4B TFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 507K 6/19;
  • 33044, 340, BR, Veeder 4C MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 518K 6/19;
  • 33045, 149, BR, Veeder 4D MTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 381K 6/19;
  • 33046, 433, BR, Veeder 4E MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 434K 6/19;  
This page will not be updated; the Veeder wells are tracked and updated at the link above.