Saturday, May 4, 2019

An Oasis Nelson Federal Well Looks To Be Back In Production -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

The well:
  • 20053, 994, Oasis/SM Energy, Nelson Federal 15-11H, Siverston, t4/12; cum 213K 3/19; this is the only well in this drilling unit; a long lateal; 
A previous post:
March 11, 2018: #20035: IA; great well; off-line as of 8/16 for unknown reasons. Remains off line 2/19; back on line 3/19; and looks like a good well;
Recent sundry notes:
  • name change to include "federal." Oasis requested that "Federal" be added to the name of the well to clearly indicate to stakeholders the well has federal implications -- October 27, 2017
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201931382736971521748358421331
BAKKEN2-20191716761515161527835072106
BAKKEN1-2019337876429067562223
BAKKEN12-20181923951796138046063774642
BAKKEN11-201801800000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20181125001000
BAKKEN8-201896289483401137593454
BAKKEN7-201821163012091230272912501269
BAKKEN6-20184680384101
BAKKEN5-2018894614393351587770737
BAKKEN4-201855000200946249647
BAKKEN3-201829149419549802637151982

Wow, Look How Busy CLR's Brooklyin Oil Field Is -- May 4, 2019

The Brooklyn oil field is followed here. It has not been updated in a long time.



 We'll update the wells later.

Global Warming -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

Updates

Later, 11:25 a.m. Central Time: see first comment. It appears the Center of Biological Diversity is suing the wrong president, but don't facts get in the way of fake news ...
The emperor penguin colony at Halley Bay was wiped out in 2016, and the warming that led to the ice melt started before that, so it appears that the Center for Biological Diversity is suing the wrong president...  

Original Post
Some of the big stories for the next six months:
  • global warming: solar minimums 
  • weather: hurricane activity
  • US politics: impeachment (fireworks)
  • US economy: the most under-rated bull market / expansion in US history
  • here's an idea -- look at the market / US economy during past impeachment processes
  • global economy: what is the US doing that "we" aren't doing?
  • energy: very, very expensive gasoline in California; it could become a bigger issue that folks realize
Global warming, link here. This is really becoming quite a story. Again, as usual, the European- and Australian-deplorables are well ahead of the US deplorables in noting the pause in global warming, due to the solar minimums. Solar minimums (sunspots) -- fewer "hot" sunspots --> less heat to the earth --> less warming. It will be interesting how this affects hurricane season: relationship between solar variability and hurricanes.



From the linked article:
Belgium is now admitting that this current solar minimum could be longer and deeper than they previously thought. Spaceweather.com has been saying this for a long time now.
We are having more volcanic activity, an increased wobble of the earth, a continual polar shift, almost continual solar winds. and solar prominences which could lead to hyder flares.
We are not seeing increasing numbers of sunspots with the reversed magnetic polarity of the upcoming solar cycle 25. This means that many more months of a spotless sun are yet upon us.
Let's check up on four things:
  • Arctic, northwest passage: science matters -- northwest passage not passable -- that was last autumn;
  • Arctic, polar bears: inconvenient -- polar bear numbers may have quadrupled and are now an (inconvenient) nuisance;
  • Antacrctic, icebergs, from iflscience: remember that NYC-size iceberg (actually pretty small in the history of icebergs; from 
  • Once in a while, however, a monster breaks free from the edge of Antarctica and drifts away. Tens of kilometres long these bergs can tower perhaps 100 metres above the sea and reach several hundred more below the surface. These are called tabular icebergs – and while it is rare for humans to see something on such a scale they are part of the normal cycle of glacial ice in Antarctica.
  • Antarctic, penguins: Trump is set to be sued for not saving the penguins (I cannot make this up). Sort of tells me how irrelevant the Center for Biological Diversity has become.

Idle Ramblings -- Apple -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

Apple.

A reader tells me that her physician recommends an Apple Watch for medical monitoring.

Wow.

A digression, from Macrumors:
Apple is set to open a new retail store at the revamped Carnegie Library in Washington, D.C. on Saturday, May 11.
Work on the Carnegie Library Apple Store kicked off two years ago, and Apple has spent an estimated $30 million on the project. $7 million of that went towards facade restoration, $300,000 went to restoring the stair wells, and $2 million was spent on landscaping and site work. Apple is also paying $700,000 per year for the next 10 years to lease the space.
According to Cook, restoring Carnegie Library to its original design standards became the "most historic, ambitious restoration by far, in the world." 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. As the professionals say, "I am / we are long AAPL."

Another digression, also from Macrumors:
Powerbeats Pro are now available to pre-order in the United States and Canada.
Powerbeats Pro are Apple's first totally wireless Beats earphones, equipped with the same H1 chip as the second-generation AirPods for hands-free connection.
Finally, back to what I originally wanted to post: Apple Watch continues to dominate; one in three smartwatches sold? Apple Watch.
And I remember "everyone" suggesting the Apple Watch was DOA.
Apple Watch remained the world's most popular smartwatch by a significant margin last quarter, with an estimated 35.8 percent market share during the January-March period, according to Counterpoint Research.
In other words, [more than] one in every three smartwatches shipped last quarter was an Apple Watch.Samsung was a distant second with an estimated 11.1 percent market share last quarter, although that is up from 7.2 percent one year prior. The big draw: EKG functionality.
As noted above: a reader tells me that her physician recommends an Apple Watch for medical monitoring.

Idle Rambling -- Boeing -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

This is getting curiouser and curiosuer. It seems every day we're getting another data point from the mishap investigation board. What is it, with all these "daily" "leaks"?

Re-posting:
Say what? Boeing didn't advise airlines or the FAA that it shut off the warning system. Acident investigators have linked bad data the system is designed to detect to the deadly Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air crashes. Color me perplexed.
Boeing Co.  didn’t tell Southwest Airlines Co.   and other carriers when they began flying its 737 MAX jets that a safety feature found on earlier models that warns pilots about malfunctioning sensors had been deactivated, according to government and industry officials.

Federal Aviation Administration safety inspectors and supervisors responsible for monitoring Southwest, the largest 737 MAX customer, also were unaware of the change, the officials said.

The alerts inform pilots whether a sensor known as an “angle-of-attack vane” is transmitting errant data about the pitch of a plane’s nose. Accident investigators have linked such bad data to the deadly Ethiopian Airlines crash in March and the Lion Air crash last year; both planes lacked the alert system.
Now we learn that even the Boeing 737 Max 8 test pilots were not brought into the loop regarding the new flight control system.

And this: Boeing did not build the "standard" redundancy" into this system.

Links: multiple sources, including The WSJ yesterday.

So, from my perspective, and I could be really, really wrong, but this is the timeline at which I am looking:
  • airlines looking for more fuel-efficient aircraft
  • Airbus and Boeing in a huge race; perhaps an existential race
  • Airbus takes early lead; in fact, it looks dire for Boeing
  • Boeing's hardware design -- overpowered engines on an older fuselage
  • the hardware cannot be fixed without huge economic, time loss
  • solution: a software fix
  • requires a sensor
  • instead of "standard" redundancy, uses only one sensor
  • one sensor not likely to be the problem but raises questions
  • how many pitot tubes does a 737 have? five sets organized into two groups, one group for the pilot and co-pilot and one as a backup; link here;
  • problem likely to be with software: system received "correct" information from sensor but interpretation / solution incorrect
  • test pilots not involved in significant portion of MCAS development to fix the hardware problem
  • on-off switch in hard-to-reach cockpit location
  • system turned to "off" without pilot/co-pilot's knowledge
  • lack of training at time aircraft put into service
My question: under what conditions do the planes on take-off go ballistic? Cross winds? Tail winds? Head winds? Overweight? Underweight? Unbalanced cargo? Why did two planes crash and thousands (?) did not.

August 19, 2019: expected date for Boeing to place the 737 Max 8 back into service.