Idle Chatter -- A Musical Interlude -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Except For A Shout-out To The Slawson Team -- Good Luck To All -- June 5, 2018

It's funny how things work out. I had never heard "One Way Ticket" by Eruption (posted earlier) until this past week. The lyrics mention "Lonesome Town" and "Heartbreak Hotel."

"Lonesome Town" was my wife's favorite song, she tells me, when she was nine years old.

So, just for my wife who never reads the blog, "Lonesome Town,"

Lonesome Town, Ricky Nelson
"Heartbreak Hotel": 1956
"Lonesome Town": 1958
"One Way Ticket" which mentions the two earlier songs: 1959 (B-side to "Oh! Carol")

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Long Hours

And he will be tweeting by 5:00 a.m. ET in just a few hours.

With those hours, he should have gone in medicine; been a trauma surgeon.

The Road To Mexico -- Elections July 1, 2018

ArgusMedia says it has a 3-part series on the Mexico election from an energy stand point. This is the first installment of that 3-part series:

Like his fellow populist leader in the US, Mexico's leading presidential candidate wants to make Mexico great again, starting with making more refined products within the country's borders.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador says he would make good on that promise by building up to two new refineries in Mexico, which would also come at a great estimated cost of $8bn. [Doesn't have the money.]

Lopez Obrador, an early opponent of the energy reforms, has been leading the polls for over a year, cementing a solid double-digit lead for months.

Lopez Obrador has said he will stop Mexican crude exports to boost the domestic production of gasoline and diesel. He has also argued in favor or (sic) freezing fuel prices and reviewing all awarded upstream contracts. [Here we go again. The road to Venezuela.]

After years of severe budget cuts imposed on state-run oil company Pemex, Lopez Obrador has said he would focus heavily on Pemex.

Rocio Nahle, the candidate's pick for energy secretary under a Lopez Obrador presidency, told Argus in a March interview that Mexicans could expect "a radical change in the organization of Pemex."

Lopez Obrador's Mexico-first energy program, formalized in a 415-page document published late last year, has stirred national pride among his supporters, upset by US president Donald Trump's repeated tirades against the US' southern neighbor.  [Emotional response will lead to a very bad outcome.]

Mexico's fuel and natural gas imports from the US have been rising for years. In 2017, state-run Pemex gasoline imports rose 13pc to 570,000 b/d from the previous year, while diesel imports increased by more than 26pc to 237,500 b/d.

Pemex's natural gas imports dipped 8.6pc in 2017 to 1.766 Bcf/d, but were still 62pc more than the 1.089 Bcf/d imported at the beginning of the current administration in 2012.

I only see really bad things for our southern neighbor.

On top of this, Mexico plans to impose a 20% tariff on pork legs. I can't make this stuff  up.

Once Upon A Time In Mexico

Venezuela Story Updated -- June 5, 2018

At this link.

I think this is going to be a huge story. It may be bigger than the Greek story (near default) some years ago; bigger than the recent Italian story. There are so many story lines. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If the NY Times fails to cover this story in detail, it's letting its readers down.

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Fun in the Sun

Updates

June 18, 2018: see update here.

Original Post

From The Bismarck Tribune: Lake Sakakawea levels expected to peak in coming week.

The lake is forecasted to continue its rise through next week, rising another 3.5 feet to peak near an elevation of 1,851.5 feet, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' June 5 outlook. The lake rose 4.3 feet during the month of May to its current level of 1,848.1 feet, about a foot higher than what was expected.

Two things: more than enough water in North Dakota for fracking. One can track Garrison Dam release rate at this link, but unfortunately, one day at a time, and will download as a pdf.

• Garrison Dam water release

Weather.gov has river elevation at the Garrison Dam on a daily basis.

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Cognitive Dissonance

As regular readers of the blog know, the "blogger.app" owned by Google won't allow links to Fox news outlets. Now this:

Random Update Of An Old Slawson Bazooka Well In Big Bend Oil Field -- June 5, 2018

Going back to the wells I first posted coming off the confidential list years ago, I will come across some interesting wells. Another example.

The well: FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was re-fracked. It was originally fracked back in 2009. The jump in production suggests it was re-fracked but FracFocus has no data to suggest that. In addition, there is no sundry form to suggest that it was re-fracked. This well does not appear on my "wells of interest" list, either. If one looks at the NDIC map, one will see a lot of fracking in the neighborhood of this well back in 2014. So, again, for newbies: this was another well that jumped in production after neighboring wells were fracked. Reason, of course, unknown why that happens, according to folks who write me about the phenomenon. [Later, for those with mineral rights, it is not important to know "why"this happen -- it's only important that it happens. LOL.]

• 18239,  1,042, Slawson, Bazooka 1-20H, Big Bend, t11/09; cum 342K 4/18 

Note jump in production in November, 2014:

BAKKEN	4-2015	30	4257	4446	2930	3213	3005	58
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	5364	5571	3954	3848	3693	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	6613	6704	4636	5696	5022	534
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	9401	8773	7771	8085	7204	726
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	11747	11888	11979	10097	9345	597
BAKKEN	11-2014	25	12401	12118	11437	10130	7863	2142
BAKKEN	10-2014	1	41	0	0	66	0	61
BAKKEN	9-2014	23	1833	1850	679	1623	1508	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	2666	3028	1398	2162	2007	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	2672	2739	1687	2273	2118	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	2072	1798	1821	1742	1592	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	2622	3093	1407	2282	2127	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	2513	2068	1352	1873	1723	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	2828	2722	1517	2232	2077	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	2642	2911	1524	1845	1705	0

Six CLR Mountain Gap Wells In Dunn County Approved For "Tight Hole" Status --

API: US crude oil inventories -- a decrease of 2.028 million bbls.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.50↑	6/5/2018	06/05/2017	06/05/2016	06/05/2015	06/05/2014
Active Rigs	61	50	25	82	194

Six new permits:

• Operator: Whiting (4); Hunt (2)
• Field: Big Stone (Williams); Wolf Bay (Dunn County)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for a four-well Schilke pad in SESW 21-159-98;

Thirteen wells were approved for "tight hole" status:

• six CLR Mountain Gap wells in Dunn County
• a mix of others

And that was all.