Bakken Update: Contributing To The Oil Glut -- 31% Production Increase, Average EURs of Almost 1 Million BOE -- October 23, 2016

Over at SeekingAlpha:

Summary:

• US unconventional wells continue to improve with production increases seen across all plays
• Increased production per foot continues to stress oil prices as new wells are completed in the best core areas
• The Bakken core has seen consistent production increases per well regardless of interval
• Bakken/Three Forks core wells model to an EUR of 875 MBOE

Obviously a must read. It may one of his best, and he has had many, many excellent columns.

By the way, this column by Filloon, at least for me, supports my contention that we are now in the beginning stages of Bakken 2.0.

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Links Over At Carpe Diem

Excellent, as usual.  

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Box Seats -- Bass Hall -- Ft Worth 

Phantom of the Opera

I expect several more photos from our daughter tomorrow, but these will have to do this evening. This was a big, big deal.

My wife treated our daughter and our two older granddaughters to box seats in Bass Hall to see Phantom of the Opera. May, of course, joined them -- the four -- girls' night out.

Our oldest granddaughter:

Blurry, our middle granddaughter and her mother (our daughter).

Meanwhile I had Sophia, the youngest granddaughter all evening. And Sophia and I had a grand, grand time.  

Decades ago, May and I were stationed in England, not far from London. We were there for three years and we saw every stage play imaginable, several more than once. We always took our two daughters. The ones I remember: Phantom of the Opera, Les Miserables, Cats, Saigon, Me and My Girl, Starlight Express.

We saw Phantom of the Opera at least twice, and Les Miserables at least three times.

ObamaCare Death Spiral; Sunday Sports -- Another Great Day -- October 23, 2016

From The Pittsburgh Tribune:

The hefty increases Pennsylvania has approved for next year's individual health plans provide new fodder for Obamacare critics who say the federal law's insurance marketplace is bound to fail.

The state's Insurance Department last week approved increases averaging 32.5 percent for the 2017 plans, making Pennsylvania one of 14 states so far to increase individual rates by an average of more than 30 percent.

The increases have renewed debate about whether the market is heading toward what experts call a “death spiral,” a scenario in which high premiums cause all but the sickest people to leave the market, necessitating even larger increases to cover insurers' costs until insurance becomes unaffordable.

“I think we're in it [an ObamaCare death spiral]. I just think it's slow,” said Jeffrey Anderson, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

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Sports Day -- Sunday

NFL: Wow, talk about a tough choice -- North Dakota's Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles) or the Minnesota Vikings (only undefeated NFL team)? Boy, by a hair, I guess I'm "going for the" Vikings, but I would be just as thrilled if Wentz wins. Nah, at the end of the day, I would like to see Vikings keep their streak going. (Later, it looks like the Eagles will win -- 5 minutes left in the 4th; 21 - 3; good for Carson Wentz; makes my day.)

Later: if I were the coach, general manager, or owner of either the Seattle Seahawks or the Arizona Cardinals, I would fire the field goal kicker -- before midnight. Missing chip shots in a tie game in overtime -- no excuse. 

NASCAR: And then there's the big Talladega race later this afternoon. And why is this huge race on NBCSN? No wonder NASCAR is losing viewers. Fortunately we get NBCSN, so it's not a big deal for me, but still? Talladega will determine which of the twelve will move to the round of eight -- four will be cut.

Right now, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Havick have each clinched a spot in the round of 8.  The others in the chase (the round of 12): #20 - Matt Kenseth; #18 - Kyle Busch, #41 - Kurt Busch, #19 - Carl Edwards, #2 - Brad Keselowski, #78 - Martin Truex, Jr., #3 - Austin Dillon, #22 - Joey Logano, #11 - Denny Hamlin, and #24 - Chase Elliott.

Possible scenarios here. The following will clinch a spot even if they lead no laps, as long as they finish "high" (finish required to clinch a spot without leading any laps):

• #20 - Kenseth (28)
• #18 - Kyle Busch (26)
• #19 - Edwards (23)
• #41 -Kurt Busch (16)
• #78 - Truex (12)

It's hard to believe those five can't do at least that well (unless, "bad luck" = wreck; DNF).
So, that leaves only one other driver to make the round of 8.

On points, it goes to  #3-Dillon, but it's hard to believe #2 - Keselowski won't find a way to get into the round of 8.

NASCAR Updates

Joey Logano wins. and now with Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. Rounding out the top 8: Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Kurt and Kyle Busch.

Keselowski also blew an engine, eliminating him. But he led a race-high 90 laps. Pretty amazing.

Lap ~ 42 : #78 - Martin Truex, Jr., off the course, with blown engine? Wow, that changes everything. Later: Truex is out of the race; ends his "chase."
 

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Another Global Warming Regressive Tax

The new refrigerant will cost $80 vs the $4 we currently pay.

A reader tells me that "his heating man" and his employee were talking about this, this summer when they put in a new furnace. They had to replace the coil in furnace for the cooling part of the a/c. They said a new type of refrigerant was going to be coming out in a year or two and they estimated the cost increase to replace/ or install an air conditioner was going to add  $200- $ 300 per job.

Years ago, my father had a few multi-unit rentals, including some small apartment complexes. He often talked about the expense of putting in new furnaces.  

Of course, this will also affect the automobile industry.

Ah, yes, the Obama legacy.

Oasis, Halcon To Report Wells Monday -- October 23, 2016

Monday, October 24, 2016

• 31122, 811, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 11T, Three Forks 1st bench, Camp, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t4/16; cum 25K 8/16;
• 32557, SI/NC, SM Energy, Russell 2B-4HS, Burg, no production data,

Sunday, October 23, 2016

• 32170, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-1H, Little Knife, no production data,

Saturday, October 22, 2016

• 27417, 2,558, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-3H, Eagle Nest, 33 stages, 5 million lbs, t5/16; cum 3K after four days;
• 32002, SI/NC, BR, CCU Zephyr 34-34 MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
• 32614, 380, SM Energy, Lystad 1-25HS, a Three Forks well, 20 stages, 2.7 million lbs, Ambrose, t9/16; cum --

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27417, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-3H, Eagle Nest:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2016	145	0
5-2016	2190	2984
4-2016	707	561

31122, see above, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 11T, Camp:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2016	3878	7429
7-2016	5094	8618
6-2016	6088	8088
5-2016	9592	10085
4-2016	587	281

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Painting Poinsettias

Sophia, age 2 years 3.5 months

WAWSA Celebrates Its Five-Year Anniversary -- October 23, 2016

From The [Crosby] Journal:

Many rural families in Divide County are now served by the Western Area Water Supply Project (WAWSP), which will have the capacity to serve as many as 125,000 people by 2038.

WAWSP celebrates its fifth anniversary this year with approximately 1,200 miles of pipeline installed.

The project is managed by the Western Area Water Supply Authority (WAWSA), which has another 650 miles of pipeline planned.

“Every day we are getting more users connected and getting more water infrastructure built,” says Jaret Wirtz, WAWSA’s executive director.

WAWSP, which is a public-private partnership, delivers water to Columbus, Crosby, Fortuna, Noonan, Ray, Ross, Stanley, Tioga, Watford City, Wildrose and Williston.

The partnership also serves rural residents throughout Burke, Divide, McKenzie, Mountrail and Williams Counties.

The authority takes water from the Missouri River and treats it at the Williston Regional Water Treatment Plant. The Williston plant serves as the primary supplier; the R & T Water Treatment Plant near Ray offers a supplemental supply source.

WAWSA has increased the Williston plant’s capacity to 21 million gallons per day and has built and/or upgraded two water towers, 10 reservoirs and 10 pump stations. The authority plans to construct and upgrade an additional tower, as well as four more pump stations and one more reservoir.

I remember folks discussing this project/authority when it was first proposed many years ago. 

Williston To Begin Open Comment On Draft Comprehensive Plans For City And County -- October 23, 2016

From the City of Williston, North Dakota:

In January 2015 the City of Williston, Williams County and the North Dakota Department of Transportation began a joint project updating the comprehensive plan.

The comprehensive plan addresses the City of Williston and the surrounding area in Williams County.

The study area boundary is approximately one mile west and north of the Williston NW Bypass (US 85), and one mile east of County Highway 9 on the east side of the study area. The southern boundary of the study area consists of the Missouri River.

The plan is referred to as the Williston and Williams County Regional Plan Update. This plan consists of a comprehensive land use plan, transportation plan and corridor studies on portions of US Highway 2 and a portion of State Route 1804.

Study areas:

• west: one mile west and north of the Williston NW Bypass (US 85): new airport in this area 
• east: one mile east of County Highway 9 on the east side of the study area: least developed 
• south to include the Missouri River: new four lane bridge 
• Transportation Corridor A: from 4-mile corner west of Williston to the 6-mile corner north of Williston 
• Transportation Corridor B: from the Montana state line to the 4-mile corner west of Williston
• Transportation Corridor C: from the 6-mile corner north of Williston, north to the 13-mle corner 
• Transportation Corridor D: ND State Highway 1804 from the Little Muddy River crossing west (sic) to 123rd Ave/County Road 42) 
• Transportation Corridor E: ND State Highway 1804 from US 2/85 west (sic) to the Little Muddy River crossing

The project is at the full draft public review and comment stage. The next step following this is the public hearing process where there will be additional opportunity for public comment.

There are seven draft documents at the linked site.

The comprehensive plan (draft) is 263 pages long (the internet PDF). The future airport and the existing airport sites are discussed starting on page 117. A map of the new airport site is fond on page 261. The transportation plan (draft)is 135 pages long. (Note: the hard copy is numbered differently than the internet PDF that downloads.)