Friday, July 24, 2015

US Crude Oil Imports Rising; India's Surging Appetite For Diesel -- July 24, 2015

Note story below: if it's cheaper to import crude oil and store it domestically, imagine how much oil operators are "storing" in the Bakken.

US crude oil imports have been rising. Reuters is reporting:
Futures prices are making it increasingly profitable to store surplus crude in the United States, coinciding with a strong period of oil imports and a further build up of already swollen stockpiles.
WTI crude futures prices imply the market is paying more than 61 cents per month to cover the cost of financing and storing oil at the Cushing delivery hub during the fourth quarter of 2015. 
The WTI contango for the fourth quarter of 2015 has tripled from less than 20 cents per month at the start of June. 
It has become more profitable to store oil in the United States in a “cash and carry” strategy tied to WTI than in other parts of the world benchmarked to Brent.
Unsurprisingly, the increased contango in WTI has coincided with an increase in tanker arrivals and crude oil imports.
Crude imports have risen from a recent low of 6.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks ending on May 22 to 7.5 million bpd in four weeks ending July 17.
In the week ending July 17, imports hit 7.94 million bpd, the second highest rate for the year.
Crude imports have been rising strongly even though crude stockpiles are close to their highest levels for 80 years.
The fast pace of imports has been enough to keep stocks from falling even though U.S. refineries are processing crude at record rates of more than 16.8 million bpd.
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India Diesel Consumption Surging

Tweeted earlier this morning:
India's oil product exports plunged nearly 30% to 6-year lows in June as refiners diverted diesel to meet surging local demand.

I'm Impressed -- July 24, 2015

Penn Energy is reporting:
Fortress Environmental Services (FES) (http://www.fortressenviro.com) announced that it has opened a new $9.3 million, state-of-the-art Saltwater Disposal (SWD) well in Waelder, Texas to serve oil & gas hydraulic fracturing operations in the Eagle Ford Shale Play.
Per the Texas Railroad Commission, the El Cruce #1 SWD well can accept 25,000 barrels of produced saltwater (more than 190 transport tanker trucks per day), which is pumped to a depth of approximately 8,000 feet.
All roads to the huge Fortress Environmental Services 10-acre truck stop are paved. The SWD facility provides four pull-through lanes, rapid 8-minute saltwater pump-outs, quick 30-minute truck tank washouts and convenient 10-minute fill-ups from an onsite 50,000 BBL fresh water depot.
In addition to quick SWD produced water disposal and fresh water refill services, the Fortress Environmental Services' facility also provides a free food buffet for truckers to get a warm meal.
The air-conditioned trucker's lounge/break room provides free high-speed Wi-Fi internet access for checking emails and trucking apps, charging up cell phones/laptops and enjoying hot food, cold drinks and/or a fresh pot of coffee.
There is also an outdoor shade tent with a BBQ grill as well as the option for free hot showers for both men and women to provide a fresh start on the long haul to the next truck stop.

Week 29: July 19, 2015 -- July 25, 2015

The big story has not changed, except that the price of crude oil (WTI)  dropped below $50. North Dakota rigs hit a post-boom low of 68 but then bounced back to 73 where it stood at the end of the week.

Operations:
Eighteen (18) new permits Friday
Eleven (11) new permits Thursday
Ten (10) new permits Tuesday
Ten (10) new permits Monday 
Unique well in North Dakota
Active rigs drop to post boom low, 68 

Fracking
3 of 4 wells coming off the confidential list are not being completed/fracked 
Whiting reports two more incredible Tarpon Federal wells; 90-stage and 62-stage fracks
Propane fracking 
NDIC reports 28 wells completed -- turns out to be no big deal
Halo effect of fracking
Federal fracking rules delayed another month
How much fresh water being used in Bakken fracks? 

Bakken Economy
Four fourth year in row, North Dakota ranked #1 in economic well-being of children
New year-found fitness center to be build in Killdeer, ND
Spiritwood, Jamestown, North Dakota update

Miscellaneous
A great photo of Saudi Arabia
EQT reports record NG well in the Utica
Plans going ahead to put in as much as 80 million bbls of new crude oil storage along the coast
Saudi's crude oil exports drop to lowest level since December, 2014
Renewable energy fees proposed by MDU
Five-million-fluid-ounce crude oil spill in northeastern Montana

Eighteen (18) New Permits -- North Dakota -- July 24, 2015

Active rigs:


7/24/201507/24/201407/24/201207/24/201107/24/2010
Active Rigs73193208181138

Eighteen (18) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (8), QEP (8), HRC, BR
  • Fields: Stockyard Creek (Williams), Epping (Williams), Grail (McKenzie), Blue Buttes (McKenzie), Spotted Horn (McKenzie); McGregory Buttes (Dunn), Elidah (McKenzie)
  • Comments: looks like two 4-well pads in Stockyard Creek/Epping, same section, for Whiting; looks like a 6-well pad in the Grail, and a 2-well pad in Blue Buttes/Spotted Horn for QEP; 
Three (3) producing wells completed:
28548, 1,112, XTO, Schettler 14X-9C,
28547, 2,312, XTO, Schettler 14X-9F,
29176, 1,380, XTO, Granli 34X-20D,

Area for Whiting's proposed 8 P Bibler wells sited in the Stockyard / Epping oil fields:

I Was Wrong: Someone At NDIC On Vacation? -- July 24, 2015

See this post for background to this note:
July 24, 2015: I may have been wrong. Another writer suggests that the reason for this 28-well completion was because the NDIC has only one employee who can enter the data and he/she was on vacation, and when he/she returned, all the data was input. From the reader who caught this, something I missed:
Did you happen to see the "explanation" of why there weren't any completions for awhile and then 28 all on one day's report?
Apparently NDIC has only one employee who can enter the data?? And he was on vacation??? Really??!!
https://sayanythingblog.com/entry/a-funny-story-about-that-alleged-slowdown-in-north-dakota-well-completions/
I liked the comment at the end (f the commentator's source is as reliable as posted):
"From a direct energy insider source, a major Bakken player is actually adding rigs within the next few months. Fracking is going to begin picking up using a new method which cuts the frack cost in half. He thinks we will have another 6 months of status quo, and things will take off again.
"Not quite ever the break neck pace of two years ago, but back to comfortable levels. Boom is far from over."
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The Red Queen Hasn't Fallen Off Her Treadmill

From SayAnythingBlog:


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US Economy

The forecast for US auto sales in July are really quite remarkable, not just the number but the type of vehicles being sold.

Folks in the showroom are being told that the days of crude oil shortages are over; cheap gasoline as far out into the future as one can see.

From SeekingAlpha: U.S. auto sales forecast to rise 2.6% in July Jul 24 2015.
Kelley Blue Book forecasts new car sales in the U.S. will increase 2.6% Y/Y in July to 1.47M units, led by a 13.4% jump in the compact SUV/crossover segment.

Forecasts by major manufacturers are posted below.
  • General Motors: +0.7% Y/Y to 258K units, market share of 17.6%. 
  • Ford: +0.8% to 214K, market share of 14.6%. 
  • Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: +4.4% to 175K units, market share of 11.9%. 
  • Toyota: -0.4% to 215K units, market share 14.6%. 
  • Honda: +2.3% to 139K units, market share 9.5%. 
  • Nissan: +4.6% to 127K units, market share 8.6%. 
  • Hyundai/Kia: -0.3% to 119K, market share 8.1%. 
  • Volkswagen: +5.1% to 52K, market share 3.5%.
I "get" Volkswagen, and I know Chrysler is having an incredible run with Jeep, but I don't know what is moving Nissan. Is it the Nissan Rogue? From US News:
The 2015 Nissan Rogue ranks 5 out of 27 Affordable Compact SUVs. This ranking is based on our analysis of published reviews and test drives of the Nissan Rogue, as well as reliability and safety data.
Meanwhile, it was announced that Mitsubishi will be closing its one factory in the United States.