ObamaCare: How Small Businesses Are Trying To Avoid TrainWreck (Their Words, Not Mine)

Updates

November 23, 2014: it's amazing how fast things turn. Now that the mid-term elections are over and the media begins to push POTUS off-center stage to make room for Hillary and Pocahontas, the "stuff" we all predicted is now being reported. More and more, folks are realizing it's not the hourly wage that is the problem for many Americans in minimum wage jobs, it is the number of hours they are allowed to work by their employer that matters.

In the original post below, and for the past two years, there have been many posts on how ObamaCare's 30-hour rule would hurt the lower socioeconomic class. Mainstream media even trotted out "studies" that suggested that wasn't true.

Now CNNMoney is reporting what I've been saying for the past two years. It's actually worse than I thought:

The number of people working part-time involuntarily is more than 50% higher than when the recession began.

There was a similar spike in part-time workers in prior recessions, but it dropped quickly. That's not happening this time around. In fact, some states have seen an increase during the recovery in people languishing in part-time jobs who want something more.

I find it more than coincidental that employers have chosen 29 hours as the cut-off:

The Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, requires employers to provide health insurance to employees working 30 or more hours a week in 2015.

There has been concern that some businesses will scale back worker hours to avoid having to provide insurance. Walmart, the nation's largest employer, announced in October that it will not provide health care coverage for about 26,000 of its part-time employees, although it did not attribute this move directly to Obamacare.

Target, Home Depot, Walgreens, and Trader Joe's have made similar announcements. Meghan Brachle can only get 29 hours a week at Whole Foods, one of her three part-time jobs. Whole Foods offers a health care plan to part-time employees, but Brachle says she would have to pay about $200 a month.

The article is extremely interesting, and again, an article we did not see prior to the mid-term elections.

Original Post

 

How small businesses are adjusting to ObamaCare:

• franchising, to keep number of employees under 50 in each "company"
• reduce hours

Link is here.

We talked about this two years ago, I think.

By the way, again, this is nothing new. It could have been published two months ago, before the midterm elections. But now that the elections are over, the truth can be published. It's time to move POTUS off center stage of this three-ring circus to make room for Hillary (and Pocahontas).

Hell Is Freezing Over -- Again! -- November 20, 2014; The Desert Tortoise Wins Out; Apache To Sell Non-Core Assets

From The Los Angeles Times

The Bureau of Land Management on Thursday denied a renewable energy company's application to build a controversial wind and solar farm in the Mojave Desert's remote Silurian Valley, deciding the sprawling project "would not be in the public interest."

The closely watched decision is considered a bellwether for how the federal agency will handle future requests to develop renewable energy projects outside established development areas.

Jim Kenna, the BLM's California director, made the decision, finding that Iberdrola Renewables' proposal would have industrialized 24 square miles of "a largely undisturbed valley that supports wildlife, an important piece of the Old Spanish National Historic Trail, and recreational and scenic values."

Kenna said he had been discussing the matter for weeks with field personnel and found the evidence "pretty persuasive."

He cited concerns that the project would degrade the quality of the wilderness surrounding the proposed site, located between two national parks. He also noted potential hazards to the desert tortoise and other impacts that could not be mitigated.

************************************

Apache To Sell Non-Core Assets

I always enjoy the phrase "non-core assets." I assume "non-core" is in the eye of the beholder, or in this case, the eye of the CEO. Once a company starts selling "core" assets, it's all over. So, of course, if any assets are being sold, an investor must hope they are non-core. Whatever. Rigzone is reporting:

Apache Corp. will sell non-core oil and gas assets in southern Louisiana and the Anadarko Basin in two transactions valued at approximately $1.4 billion as the company focuses on growing its North American onshore liquids production.

The Houston-based company will sell its working interest in approximately 90,000 net acres of mature fields in southern Louisiana. Production from these fields, which have high decline rates and short reserve lives, produced around 21,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day – of which 62 percent was natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) – net to Apache during this year’s third quarter.

Apache will retain its 275,000 mineral acres in southern Louisiana.

In the Anadarko Basin, Apache will sell approximately 115,000 net acres in part of its Stiles Ranch field in Wheeler County, Texas, and in its Mocane-Laverne and Verden fields in western Oklahoma. Net production from these properties averaged 26,000 boepd in the third quarter of 2014; 83 percent of this production was gas and NGLs.

******************************

All That Talk About Germany Banning Fracking ... So Much Talk

Reuters via Rigzone is reporting:

Germany's government plans to stop short of an outright ban on the controversial technique of fracking for gas, bowing to pressure from industry, according to the latest draft of a law from the environment ministry seen by Reuters.

Fracking or hydraulic fracturing to extract gas and oil has transformed the U.S. energy market, boosting domestic supplies.

The process is banned in France on environmental grounds. It is allowed in Britain but has strict environmental and safety guidelines.

German industry is concerned that its competitiveness is being hurt by rising energy costs at home compared to lower prices in the United States which has seen a fracking boom. A deterioration in ties with Russia over the Ukraine crisis has also raised pressure on Europe, especially Germany, to cut its reliance on Russian gas and fuelled the fracking debate.

Germany is drawing up new fracking rules, and has promised strict environmental audits and a ban on drilling in areas where water is protected due to possible environmental damage.

We won't see much, if any fracking, in Germany in my investing lifetime. Talk, so much talk. Maybe that would make a good poll ten years from now: where will see fracking next: New York or Germany? LOL.

About That Decline Rate In The Bakken; Almost 400,000 Bbls In One Year -- November 20, 2014

Updates

April 30, 2018: update on production -- t9/13; cum 977K 2/18; the 21,000 MCF adds 3,000 boe per month, so for example, the 6,209 bo in 2/18 goes to over 9,000 boe in 2/18; cum MCF gas 1,568,427 MCF = 261,000 boe -- so this well has gone over 1 million boe in less than five years.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	6209	6059	99	20396	19722	220
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	6960	7009	129	22076	20797	778
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	6911	7012	104	21726	21023	200
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	6783	6834	104	20646	18969	1190
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	7151	7102	102	21556	20641	411
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	6604	6598	100	21201	20204	509
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	7045	7014	127	21402	20345	558
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	6393	6262	100	21049	19963	610
BAKKEN	6-2017	28	6162	6298	90	19608	16839	2325
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	7284	7292	99	21205	20491	210
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	7090	7095	100	19855	19316	51
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	7174	7243	131	20532	19795	248
BAKKEN	2-2017	20	3774	3838	84	15574	14979	285
BAKKEN	1-2017	21	3370	3363	89	13441	12753	355
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	8901	8851	124	30364	28665	1195
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	9473	9658	117	29978	29269	22

 

Original Post

A random update: the permit said "Bakken," but the target was the Three Forks. The well was tested September 23, 2013, just a little over one year ago.

• 25374, 1,414, EOG, Austin 39-324H, Parshall, spacing ICO/1920 acres; 60 stages; 14 million lbs sand;

I am quite sure the application said "Bakken" and the drilling report said "Three Forks," not otherwise specified. EOG has drilled mostly middle Bakken wells in the Parshall, so a Three Forks well is noteworthy in this field. It was drilled a little over a year ago and to date, almost 400,000 bbls of oil.

Note the huge amounts of sand being used (14 million lbs); the number of stages is greater than normal, but note this is a 1920-acre drilling unit with a horizontal about 3,000 feet longer than a typical long lateral (based on my calculations which may be entirely wrong).

Check out the "Bakken decline rate" in this well:

NDIC File No: 25374    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/18/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWNW 32-154-90    Latitude: 48.123901     Longitude: -102.286554
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: AUSTIN 39-3204H
Elevation(s): 2330 KB   2305 GR   2298 GL     Total Depth: 22,349     Field: PARSHALL
Spud Date(s):  4/24/2013
Casing String(s): 9.625" 2246'   7" 10042'
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 1094-22287     Comp: 9/18/2013     Status: F     Date: 9/23/2013     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 378,180     Cum MCF Gas: 255674     Cum Water: 14017
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/23/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1414     IP MCF: 936     IP Water: 120

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	25911	25905	375	46226	35480	10279
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	32182	32428	203	49601	36713	12384
BAKKEN	2-2015	20	19101	18750	609	24774	23350	1117
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	29515	29555	186	41405	36825	4079
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	31612	31612	175	43552	41638	1410
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	33471	33491	204	40255	30331	9438
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	37382	37255	358	45912	25965	19446
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	40891	40938	575	39759	24063	15212
BAKKEN	8-2014	15	19162	19248	2698	12333	11853	406
BAKKEN	7-2014	29	39472	39797	1077	32919	27133	5653
BAKKEN	6-2014	29	40257	40197	5907	25064	18670	6250
BAKKEN	5-2014	1	381	0	350	152	149	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	29	27829	28655	129	21775	20407	1227
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	31087	31309	61	22260	18	22092
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	30924	30617	58	19692	0	19554
BAKKEN	1-2014	22	25395	24988	69	13664	0	13565
BAKKEN	12-2013	25	27393	28115	101	14349	0	14242
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	37188	37194	435	18371	0	18231
BAKKEN	10-2013	29	43760	42959	1314	24640	0	24505
BAKKEN	9-2013	12	14441	13778	1243	10696	0	10640

 

******************************************** 

The Wall Street Journal

POTUS immigration EO; top story as expected.

Top US story: Obama administration lied about numbers enrolled in ObamaCare -- now, who is going to be thrown under the bus? Oh, that's right -- the HHS cabinet secretary is an OMB budget bureaucrat; no medical experience. Good at numbers. Until she gets caught.

No sign of inflation.

Snowstorms pound Buffalo.

Several articles on POTUS immigration EO.

Wow, I'm getting tired of this: Keystone's fate may lie not in DC, but in Nebraska.

University of California to raise tuition 5% for each of the next five years. The gap between the haves and the have-nots widens.

Truce? What truce? Ukraine death toll mounts despite "truce."

Here we go again. Manufacturer of defective air bags knew about it in 2005 but didn't start its investigation or warn car makers until two years later.

Movies: latest "Hunger Games" expected to be biggest open of the year.

Ahead of the tape: the windfall from the sharp drop in energy prices isn't being felt evenly throughout the US economy. Great headline, but story hardly worth reading.

***************************

The Los Angeles Times

Lead paragraph in lead story:

In a major change, the program will invite parents of either U.S. citizens or long-term permanent residents to apply for a work permit and a three-year protection from deportation.

That's what everyone is worked up about! Give me a break. How many potentially affected? Five (5) million. Won't even be noticed. About that many Americans signed up for ObamaCare the first year.

On the other hand, this is big news: truck drivers from three (3) companies end strike at Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Didn't we just write about those ports the other day? Reason #26,542 why I love to blog.

******************************

Hell Froze Over

From The Los Angeles Times

The Bureau of Land Management on Thursday denied a renewable energy company's application to build a controversial wind and solar farm in the Mojave Desert's remote Silurian Valley, deciding the sprawling project "would not be in the public interest."

The closely watched decision is considered a bellwether for how the federal agency will handle future requests to develop renewable energy projects outside established development areas.

Jim Kenna, the BLM's California director, made the decision, finding that Iberdrola Renewables' proposal would have industrialized 24 square miles of "a largely undisturbed valley that supports wildlife, an important piece of the Old Spanish National Historic Trail, and recreational and scenic values."

Kenna said he had been discussing the matter for weeks with field personnel and found the evidence "pretty persuasive."

He cited concerns that the project would degrade the quality of the wilderness surrounding the proposed site, located between two national parks. He also noted potential hazards to the desert tortoise and other impacts that could not be mitigated.

**************************

For The Archives

It is amazing how inexpensive Blu-Ray DVDs have become. Yes, I know the younger crowd is watching movies for even less, and streaming them, but one can purchase a Blu-Ray set of three Sean Connery / James Bond movies, Volume 1, and Volume 2, each for about $14.99.  On so many levels the movies are pretty cheesy but two things draw me to them, to watch them over and over: a) the music; and, b) the scenes of beautiful locations around the world. Tonight, "From Russia With Love," reminded me our visits to Istanbul when we were assigned to Turkey for a couple of years.

Halcon's Eagle Has Landed .... November 20, 2014

These wells come off the confidential list in February, 2015, but this may give us some idea of what Halcon is doing:

• 27280, conf, Halcon, Fort Berthold 148-94-30B-31-5H, Eagle Nest, producing: 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	35025	28287
8-2014	32177	23470

• 27279, conf, Halcon, Fort Berthold 148-94-19C-18-5H, Eagle Nest, producing: 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	28564	45392
8-2014	15550	5140

• 27278, conf, Halcon, Fort Berthold 148-94-30B-31-4H, Eagle Nest, producing:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	44652	34112
8-2014	30466	6269

• 27278, conf, Halcon, Fort Berthold 148-94-19C-18-4H, Eagle Nest, producing: 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	25746	36385
8-2014	15247	13301

I track the Eagle Nest here. 

Whiting Well: 150,000 Bbls In Less Than Four Months, Twin Valley -- November 20, 2014

Updates

October 13, 2016: there are 18 wells in Twin Valley. Two of the 18 wells are BR wells; the other 16 are Whiting wells and they are some of the best Whiting wells in the Bakken. All sixteen Whiting wells in Twin Valley were taken off-line for the entire month of August, 2016; no reason given. See link here. 

 Twin Valley

Twin Valley is a very, very small oil field, only 8 sections (July 28, 2015), in the northeast corner of McKenzie County, right smack in the middle of the sweet spot of the Bakken, about 14 miles northeast from Watford City. Interestingly enough, on this date (July 28, 2015), the most activity in the Twin Valley oil field is in one 1280-acre drilling unit.

Permits

2017 (none as of April 14, 2017)

2016 (none -- list is complete)

2015 (list is complete)
32329, 2,861, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, 4 sections, t10/16; cum 341K 8/17;
32328, 2,053, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-2TFH, t10/16; cum 200K 8/17;
32327, 3,149, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFH, t9/16; cum 215K 8/17;
32326, 2,420, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1H, t10/16; cum 188K 8/17;
31715, 3,465, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-3TFH, t10/16; cum 214K 8/17;
31712, 2,274, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-1H, t9/16; cum 209K 8/17;
31711, 3,810, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-2TFH, t10/16; cum 230K 8/17;
31710, 2,426, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-1TFH, t10/16; cum 225K 8/17;
31708, 3,101, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-1H, t9/16; cum 185K 8/17;
31707, 2,546, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-4TFH, t9/16; cum 179K 8/17;
31706, A, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-3TFH, t --; cum 207K 8/17;
31705, 2,079, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH, t10/16; cum 319K 8/17;
31704, 3,271, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-1TFH, t9/16; cum 209K 8/17;
30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, t10/15; cum 301K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;
30775, AB/IA/175, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-4TFH, 31 stages, 4.6 million lbs, t10/15; cum -- ; what happened;
30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH, t10/15; cum 559K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;,
30688, 1,392, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-2TFH, t10/15; cum 248K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;
30687, 1,841, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-2H, t10/15; cum 185K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;

2014 (list is complete)
27522, 4,207, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFHU, 4 sections, t10/14; cum 430K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16; still no pump as of 6/17;
27521, 5,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4HR, t10/14; cum 430K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16; still no pump as of 6/17;
27520, 6,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFH, t10/14; cum 616K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16; still no pump as of 6/17;

2013
27284, 4,934, Whiting, Skaar Federal 41-3TFH, t6/14; cum 463K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;
on a pump sometime in 2017;
27283, 4,523, Whiting, Skaar Federal 41-3TFHU, 4 sections, t6/14; cum 363K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16; pump sometime in 2017;

2012
24213, PNC, BR, Raider 31-5TFH,
22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, t12/12; cum 560K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;
22360, 1,394, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-1H, t12/12; cum 246K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;

2011
20710, IA/606, BR, Barkley 1-5H, t10/11; cum 247K 8/17; off-line as of 5/17; back on line as of 8/17;

Other Twin Valley wells:
20589, 4,815, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4H, t10/11; cum 611K 8/17; taken off-line all of 8/16;

Original Post

Three huge Whiting Flatland Federal wells are followed at this link. 

**********************************

This well comes off the confidential list on December 6, 2014:

• 27284, 4,934, Whiting, Skaar Federal 41-3TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, not otherwise specified; probably first bench; 1280 acres; max gas, 3,749 units, 29 stages, 3.1 million lbs sand/ceramic; t6/14; cum 460K 7/17; (see production updates above)

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	24837	30823
8-2014	22737	33030
7-2014	43067	39924
6-2014	62247	13275

Twin Valley is in the sweet spot of the North Dakota Bakken, northeast McKenzie County. It has only eight (8) sections and borders Banks oil field. All sections are "held by production."

That well is not unique, here's another one:

• 27283, 4,523, Whiting, Skaar Federal 41-3TFHU, Twin Valley, Three Forks, possibly 2nd bench (narrative suggests 2nd bench, but permit say 1st bench); background gas max 2,408 units; 2560 acres; 30 stages; 2.5 million lbs sand/ceramic; 4 sections, t6/14 cum 358K 7/17; (see production updates above)

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2014	23061	43238
8-2014	16997	23441
7-2014	35040	51737
6-2014	47739	9377

Regular readers may remember these two wells also in Twin Valley, and now on the "Monster Well" page:

• 20589, 4,815, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4H, said to have a 7,000 boepd IP; record middle Bakken (as of Feb, 2012); Twin Valley; s8/11; t10/11; cum 608K 7/17; 30 stages; 2 million lbs sand/mesh 
• 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, Twin Valley, Middle Bakken "C" facies well; 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs sand/ceramic; t12/12; cum 559K 7/17;

Note that #22361 was inactive (for operational reasons). It went off-line in the middle of August, 2014, and was off-line all of September.  In July, it's last full month of production, it was producing 8,500 bbls of oil.

Note that #20589 was also inactive (for operational reasons). It went off-line in the middle of August, 2014, and was off-line all of September.  In July, it's last full month of production, it was producing 7,000 bbls of oil.

The wells are, no doubt, off-line, while fracking is going on nearby.