Wednesday, July 8, 2026

End-Of-Day Report -- July 8, 2026

Locator: 51134B.

Mideast; Trump -- "the ceasefire is over." Yesterday CENTCOM hit 80 targets against IRGC and Iran; today, CENTCOM to hit 100 targets. Both sides said it can get much worse.

Markets: "a red day" for the US markets. Interestingly, the Chinese market was green and looked pretty good. The US Dow Jones was down almost 600 points; S&P down 21 points (way off its lows); and, NASDAQ, up 50 points; NASDAQ-100, up 80 points. Kharg Island in play.

Costco: June sales -- up almost 11% y/y.  

Apple (AAPL): making huge moves with Broadcom (AVGO), and, of course, Qualcomm. 

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $74.89; up 6.32%; up $4.45. It's been awhile since I've seen a 6% jump in WTI. 

Active rigs: 26.

Four new permits, #43095 - #43098, inclusive -- 

  • Operator: Hunt Oil
  • Field: Parshall oil field, Mountrail County;
  • Comments:
    • Hunt has three McAlmond permits and one Oakland permit, lots 3 and 4, section 5-154-89, 
      • to be sited 319 FNL and 1293 / 1383 FWL.

Seven permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (4): Ridley (Antelope, McKenzie); Spoiler (Moccasin Creek, Dunn); Spoiler (South Fork, Dunn); and, Fort Berthold (Eagle Nest, Dunn);
  • XTO (3): Prairie Federal (3); (Haystack Butte, McKenzie);

Two permits canceled:

  • Enerplus: Loggerhead, McKenzie County;
  • KODA Resources: Ale, Divide County.

Tech Notes -- July 8, 2026

Locator: 51133TECH.

Schwab: I'm not sure if this is accurate. 

It's 12:21 p.m. CT, July 8, 2026. Holy mackerel -- my Schwab portfolio is having an incredible day: a) it's overweight in oil; and, b) it's way overweight in AAPL, currently up very nicely on some incredible Apple news, including: a) a new server chip in-house; b) AVGO; and, c) QCOM. See disclaimer.

Apple: only ASUS, at 0.2%, and Apple, at 10.1% this quarter and 9.9% the quarter before, reported positive growth, y/y.


 Apple: announcing some interesting (continuing) partnerships with Broadcom and Qualcomm. 


 And then there's TSM:

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The Book Page

The Story of Semiconductors, John Orton, c. 2009.

Probably the best book ever on this subject. Hard to find. Available for $150.00 at Amazon but one can find it for resale for as little as $4.99. I just checked: Amazon now has it for around $80 for hardcover; $75 for paperback. 

Notes at two sites:

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom and Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom and Oracle.
  • Longer version here.

Market -- July 8, 2026

Locator: 51132MARKET.

CVX: one of the more promising stocks right now. Link here

Apple and QCOM

 

Apple and Broadcom (previously posted):

Rivian

Coal Is Dead! Long Live Coal! Déjà Vu All Over Again -- July 8, 2026

Locator: 51131ARCHIVES.

Coal: this is occurring globally, not just Vietnam --


Apple and memory chips:


 XOM: windfall profit. Premarket: XOM up another $4.44 overnight; on top of a gain of $5.25 yesterday.

Cuba: nationwide grid collapse. Protests (riots?) breakout in Havana as Cube struggles to restore electricity.

Trump: The Tentative Ceasefire With Iran Is Over -- Wednesday -- July 8, 2026

Locator: 51130B.

PSA: US postage stamps to increase in price this Sunday, July 12, 2026.

  • Forever Stamps (one ounce): to 82 cents from current 78 cents

Anticipation: futures after President Trump says the "ceasefire with Iran is over."

US exports, refined products: huge jump --  

Mideast: CENTCOM carries out attacks on 80 targets after Iran targets three commercial cargo ships; Iran responds by hitting targets across the Middle East; results in lots of green. WTI up over 6% overnight. WTI trending toward $75.


Is NATO finally getting on with it?
 

Getting serious?

 

From The New York Times
: 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.76.

New wells reporting:  

  • Thursday, July 9, 2026: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 368 for the year, 
    • 41917, conf, Murfin Drilling, MH Hecker 1-14H, 
  • Wednesday, July 8, 2026: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 367 for the year, 
    • 41232, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 5B
    • 41231, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 4B,
    • 41230, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 2B, 
    • 41194, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 3B,
    • 40624, conf, Devon Energy, Skaar 15-22 7H,

 The maps, the Oasis Hoehn wells:

The Oasis Hoehn wells are south of Williston, south side of the river, just west of US Highway 85 in Indian Hill oil field. 

RBN Energy: strong margins for minerals/royalty firms spur consolidation and an IPO. Link here. Archived.

About a year ago, we chronicled the performance of publicly traded companies holding oil and gas mineral and royalty interests, the approximately 20% of gross revenues generated from wells without responsibility for the costs associated with development and production. M&A activity in the minerals/royalty space, which peaked in 2018-19, quieted during a prolonged post-pandemic wave of major E&P consolidation. As rising realizations for both oil and natural gas have recently boosted cash flows, the minerals/royalty sector has seen both the first major consolidation of the publicly traded firms as well as a recent successful initial public offering (IPO) that harkens additional entrants to the arena. In today’s RBN blog, we update our comparison of the performance of these entities with traditional E&Ps, analyze the valuation trends for each mineral/royalty company, and review significant transaction market activity.

Before we dive deeper on this, let’s quickly define a few key terms and explain in simple terms the financial side of well development and who gets what money-wise from a producing well. First, some definitions:

Mineral interests are the exclusive rights to the minerals, including oil and natural gas, found on, in, or beneath a piece of land. These rights may be leased to companies that extract oil and gas but are retained in perpetuity and survive the lease. 

Royalty interests are payments to mineral interest holders negotiated as part of the lease and based on a percentage of oil and gas production. Royalty holders are not responsible for costs associated with oil and gas production except applicable taxes on revenue and have no abandonment or environmental liabilities.   Royalty interests are terminated when the lease ends.

Working interests constitute ownership of the remaining production from a lease. Working interest (WI) owners are responsible for 100% of the costs of finding, developing, and producing oil and gas on the leasehold, as well as funding abandonment of the well and any environmental liabilities. In describing assets, E&P companies often identify their relative working interest (e.g., 100% WI) and the net revenue interest (81.4% NRI), which reflects the total royalties paid.

Because they don’t incur production costs, companies that solely hold mineral and royalty interests retain a larger margin of their share of the net revenues derived from production than traditional E&Ps. In Figure 1 below, we compare the Q1 2026 income statements of seven publicly traded mineral/royalty companies (generally referred to as royalty trusts, or RTs), four of them U.S.-based (Viper Energy, Black Stone Minerals, Kimbell Royalty Partners, and Dorchester Minerals), and three based in Canada (PrairieSky Royalties, Freehold Royalties, and Topaz Energy), with the results of a universe of 34 major E&P companies that we cover.  (Note: We have excluded hybrid firms that have significant revenue streams other than oil and gas mineral/royalty rights to simplify valuation calculations). Because of the virtual lack of production costs, the RTs generated pre-tax free cash flow of $37.32/boe, or 94% of net revenues, compared with $26.87/boe, or 70% of net revenues, for the E&Ps. Pre-tax net income for the RTs was 60% of net revenues, compared with 35% for the E&Ps.