Thursday, May 25, 2023

Micahlucas -- CLR

Locator: 10001MICAH.

The wells:

  • 39868, Micahlucas 3-5HSL,
  • 39869, Micahlucas 4-5HSL1,
  • 21833, Micahlucas 2-5H, 
  • 17411, Lorin 1-5H,
  • 39136, Micahlucas 5-5H,
  • 39137, Micahlucas 6-5H1,
  • 39138, Micahlucas 7-5H,
  • 39139, Micahlucas 8-5H1,
  • 39140, Micahlucas 9-5H,
  • 39141, Micahlucas 10-5H1,
  • 25167, Micahlucas 3-5H,
  • 25166, Micahlucas 4-5H,
  • 39162, Micahlucas 11-5H,
  • 39163, Micahlucas 12-5H1,
  • 39164, Micahlucas 13-5HSL,
  • 39165, Micahlucas 14-5HSL1,


a

US Recession Has Been Moved To The Right -- Now, 2028 -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44752ECON.
Locator: 44752JOBS.
Locator: 44752GDP.
Locator: 44752WTI.

Updates

May 26, 2023: link here.

Later, 11:31 p.m. CT: by the way, which sector is most affected by higher interest rates (excluding the housing market which is too decentralized for investors)? Start-up EV manufacturers. We're already seeing start-up EVs ready to go under; higher interest rates -- especially a second increase in rates from here -- will kill start-up EV manufacturers and delay profitability for legacy, deep-pocket automobile manufacturers. Invest accordingly.

Later, 11:31 p.m. CT: the "numbers" this morning mean that the Fed will "raise rates" at least two more times. Does anyone need corroborative data? WTI dropped almost 5% after the numbers came out.

Original Post 

A reminder: it would take ten more 25-bp increases to bring "us" back to historical norms, and somethhing those with cash in money market funds would like to see.

Link here.


NVDA -- May 25, 2023

Locator: 44751SC.

NVDA:

  • CPU: gaming
  • DCP: AI (ChatGPT)

NVDA's current mix:

  • CPU: 95%
  • DCP: 5%

Will switch to:

  • CPU: 5%
  • DCP: 95%

Two comments:

  • this "switch" will happen at lightning speed; and,
  • this is a ten-year "play"

Gaming:

  • surged during Covid-19 lockdown -- 2022 - 2022 (full calendar years)
  • plummeted after end of Covid-19 lockdown
  • hunch: gaming will recover
  • hunch: Apple's headset will benefit indirectly, it won't be obvious, and will take time
  • headset:
  • current target: developers, not consumers (analogy: the smartwatch)
  • target, long term: consumers; price needs to come down relative to value of the dollar

In addition, Nvidia is now also competing with cloud services. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Now, that you know all that, the following headlines make sense and one can put them in context:

At the open:


INTC: on a day the NASDAQ surges with tech surging, particulary chip companies, INTC falls another 5% today:



Short Squeeze? May 25, 2023

Locator: 44751SC.




I haven't watched CNBC in months, but I will watch a bit this morning.

*************************
Debt Ceiling

Thoughts later.

Taking Sophia to school. Her last day of school today.

A Goldilocks Economy -- Thursday, May 25, 2023

Locator: 44750B. 

CNBC: no sign of a slowing economy

Jobs:

  • first time claims much lower than forecast
  • first time unemployment cllaims: 229,000 vs 245,000 forecast 

GDP: 1Q23 (second reading)

  • 1.3% vs 1.%  estimate

China:

  • Covid-19, variant XBB, surging
  • 65 million cases / week through the month of June
  • China no longer tests; no lock downs; essentially ignores.
  • will delay China's invasion of Taiwan by at least a month


Germany
: enters recession -- 

Tech: How high will it go?

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $72.84.

Natural gas: $2.364.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Friday, May 26, 2023: 45 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 352 for the year
39169, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-13HZ,
38968, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-5,

Thursday, May 25, 2023: 43 for the month; 95 for the quarter, 350 for the year
39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIIU 5-31H1,
39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL,

RBN Energy: US crude oil and refined products exports aree driveen by production growth.

Consider this fact: Three of every five barrels of crude oil produced in the U.S. are exported, either as crude oil or in the form of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or other petroleum products. Sure, large volumes of crude and products are still being imported, but the net import number is dwindling toward zero — and if you count NGLs (ethane, propane, etc.) in the liquid fuels balance, the U.S. has been a net exporter since 2020. Yes, folks, exports are now calling the shots, and the role of exports is only going to become larger over the next few years. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on crude oil and product exports and why they matter more now than ever.

Before the Shale Revolution changed everything, exports of U.S.-sourced crude oil and petroleum products registered only as blips on the radar, a few hundred thousand barrels a day in total. But the sharp rise in U.S. oil production through the 2010s — and, importantly, the lifting of the ban on most crude exports in December 2015 — ushered in a new era. Lately, it’s become a regular thing to see 4 MMb/d or more of oil shipped out of marine terminals along the Gulf Coast, and refineries — especially those in Texas and Louisiana — are exporting a substantial portion of their output too.