A Goldilocks Economy -- Thursday, May 25, 2023

Locator: 44750B. 

CNBC: no sign of a slowing economy

Jobs:

• first time claims much lower than forecast
• first time unemployment cllaims: 229,000 vs 245,000 forecast 

GDP: 1Q23 (second reading)

• 1.3% vs 1.%  estimate

China:

• Covid-19, variant XBB, surging
• 65 million cases / week through the month of June
• China no longer tests; no lock downs; essentially ignores.
• will delay China's invasion of Taiwan by at least a month
  

Germany: enters recession -- 

Tech: How high will it go?

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $72.84.

Natural gas: $2.364.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Friday, May 26, 2023: 45 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 352 for the year
39169, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-13HZ,
38968, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-5,

Thursday, May 25, 2023: 43 for the month; 95 for the quarter, 350 for the year
39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIIU 5-31H1,
39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL,

RBN Energy: US crude oil and refined products exports aree driveen by production growth.

Consider this fact: Three of every five barrels of crude oil produced in the U.S. are exported, either as crude oil or in the form of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or other petroleum products. Sure, large volumes of crude and products are still being imported, but the net import number is dwindling toward zero — and if you count NGLs (ethane, propane, etc.) in the liquid fuels balance, the U.S. has been a net exporter since 2020. Yes, folks, exports are now calling the shots, and the role of exports is only going to become larger over the next few years. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on crude oil and product exports and why they matter more now than ever.

Before the Shale Revolution changed everything, exports of U.S.-sourced crude oil and petroleum products registered only as blips on the radar, a few hundred thousand barrels a day in total. But the sharp rise in U.S. oil production through the 2010s — and, importantly, the lifting of the ban on most crude exports in December 2015 — ushered in a new era. Lately, it’s become a regular thing to see 4 MMb/d or more of oil shipped out of marine terminals along the Gulf Coast, and refineries — especially those in Texas and Louisiana — are exporting a substantial portion of their output too.