Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Boeing Customer Goes Broke Is The Headline -- Orders Weren't Going To Get Filled Anyway -- A Non-Story -- Novmeber 29, 2022

Blame it on the bossa nova. 

Being reported elsewhere that "a Boeing customer" went broke / bankrupt.

It's a non-story.

The orders were never going to be filled anyway.

Here's one article on the story

CargoLogicAir, the U.K.-based all-cargo airline affiliated with Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Group, appears to be officially going out of business, collateral damage from the invasion of Ukraine.

The airline, which flew two Boeing 747-400 freighters out of London airports, ceased operations earlier this year after the U.K. government sanctioned majority shareholder Alexey Isaykin for signing a deal with the city of Moscow for Volga-Dnepr Airlines to maintain supply chain connectivity with countries in Asia and the Middle East.

On Wednesday, CargoLogic Air (CLA) appointed corporate restructuring firm Buchler Phillips to administer its insolvency ....

CLA was a small carrier, but the grounding of two extra-large freighters is part of the story behind the shortage of cargo capacity compared to pre-COVID times and why rates haven’t dropped more with weak demand. Sister company CargoLogic Germany, with a fleet of four Boeing 737 freighters, has also been grounded after filing for bankruptcy protection in May. And AirBridgeCargo, Volga-Dnepr’s scheduled airline that flew a large fleet of Boeing 747 freighters, has been shut down along with subsidiary Atran Airways.

Established in 2015, CLA had a spotty history. It reduced operations in 2019 under weak market conditions and closed down in early 2020 but regained its operating certificate in April when the pandemic created intense demand for freighter service. CLA employed about 130 before the sanctions and turned a profit in 2020. 

CLR's Bang Wells -- November 29, 2022

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. It's for my benefit only. If this is important to you, go the source. I remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Tracked here.

All CLR Bang wells updated two days ago.

Very, very nice wells; perhaps not monster wells but better than what we saw in the early days of the boom.

Number of Bang wells: I count fourteen (14). When I first started the blog in 2007 / 2009, I told folks that if you "had" one well in the Bakken, you would eventually have four, probably eight, possibly twelve and perhaps even more than that. The MDW blog was the first to "predict" / note that. 

Halo effect noted in the field. This well was refracked, 6/7/22 - 6/15/22: 7.7 million gallons of water; moderate frack; 89.1% fresh water; 10.2% proppant in that frack. 

Original report:

  • spud: 1/12/2007
  • td: 20,619'
  • td: 2/21/2008
  • days total drilling: 40.
  • days drilling lateral: 14.
  • kick-off:
    • began January 29, 2008
    • completed build on February 2, 2008
    • drilled out of casing oon February 7, 2008

Open-hole frack:

  • on/about March 12, 2008
  • 1,646 bbls of water
  • 70,067 pounds of sand

Stripper well: June 16, 2014.

Comment:

  • this same well -- if drilled in the Bakken today -- expectations --
  • spud to td: seven days, maybe six
  • vertical: 24 - 36 hours
  • curve build (kick off): 12 hours
  • lateral: three days
  • frack: seven days
    • 8 million gallons of water
    • 30 - 60 stages

Recent production and updated cumulative production:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 237K 8/22; huge halo effect; cum 512K 12/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20225174216755566218321792
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400

The Incredible "Waffle House / Hearty Breakfast" Pad Wells In The Antelope Oil Field -- Enerplus -- November 29, 2022

The Enerplus pads in the Bakken.

Hearty Breakfast (Enerplus, Antelope). In some places referred to as the "Waffle House" pad.

The Antelope: perhaps the best field in the Bakken.  

Enerplus is reporting out its "Hearty Breakfast" pad wells this week and next.

Look at the initial production of these wells from the Hearty Breakfast pad:

  • 37964, loc, ERF,  Omelet 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20223510450732
8-20226215490239
7-20221615025668
6-20222221030175
  • 37962, loc, ERF,  Sausage 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope, no production data,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20227050198008
8-20221835424281
7-20223775947114
6-202269099387

  •  37961, loc, ERF, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H, Antelope:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20221524821027
8-20221376323107
7-20221979238250
6-20224812265381
  • 37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2022959213363
8-20224366664108
7-202233815725
6-20223770451226
5-20220776
  • 37966, conf, Enerplus, Bacon 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20223704655889
8-20224294463305
7-202223173807
6-20226494288234
5-20220204

On My Radar Scope Today -- November 29, 2022

Tee leaves: President Biden will go down in history as one of the better US presidents. 

  • depends how one defines "better"
  • "more effective" than many US presidents?
  • more statesmanlike?

The impending rail strike.

The triplepidemic: the seasonal flu, Covid-19, and RSV "chest cold" data is absolutely fascinating

  • Covid surging in China, Japan
  • mortality and serious disease from Covid in China? About 0.025%. Let that sink in.
  • Japan: huge surge in cases; tell me again the vaccine program in the US is not working
  • seasonal flu is particularly severe this year -- CNBC. Hospitals feeling the pressure ... again

NFL Monday night: pathetic

  • Thursday night: some great matchups
  • what changed? Amazon owns NFL TNF
  • Jeff Bezos: well-played

Pet peeve: blaming high prices on some food items on inflation;
in fact, other forces at work, though inflation pays a role
examples: iceberg lettuce; to some extent romaine lettuce; chickens; eggs

Coca-cola:

  • for the past several months, a year? Price of 2-liter Coke:
  • Target: $2.59
  • Walmart: $2.58
  • yesterday, Walmart: $1.88. What just happened.

Great Britain:

  • wind not blowing
  • renewables providing almost no electricity for the Brits right now

Apple vs Twitter spat:

  • probably not good for either
  • but mainstream media missing the big story
  • has to do with revenue
  • reminder: Apple destroyed Meta because of Apple's privacy rules

Tech, Russia:

  • the country's largest tech company exits Russia
  • winner: certainly not Russia

LNG, Europe: the story keeps getting bigger and bigger

  • winner: US. Huge story. Few following the story.

WTI: recovering.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: 78.66.

Natural gas: $7.268.

Wednesday, November 30, 2022: 72 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 654 for the year.
38844, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 7-19-30TFH,
38819, conf, CLR, Bonneville 7-26HSL,
38728, conf, Kraken, Raymond 16-21 2H,
38173, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 10-28H1,
37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H,
37945, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 14-11H2,

Tuesday, November 29, 2022
: 66 for the month, 103 for the quarter, 648 for the year.
38921, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 3-27HSL,
38843, conf, Slawson, PhatKat Federal 7-18-7TFH,
37947, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 12-11H1
37946, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 13-11H,

RBN Energy: more Gulf Coast LNG export capacity is on its way; where will the feedgas come from? Archived.

The first wave of Gulf Coast liquefaction and LNG export facilities was well-timed, coming as it did with fast-rising natural gas supplies in the Lower 48 and a slew of pipeline reversals and expansions that enabled billions of cubic feet a day of low-cost Marcellus-Utica gas supplies to reach Gulf Coast markets. Permian and Haynesville supplies helped too. The next wave of LNG development, which will kick off in earnest in 2024, may not go quite as smoothly, however. Global demand for LNG is there — there’s little doubt about that. But the next phase of export capacity growth may well be hemmed in by domestic factors, namely the timing and availability of gas supplies to the Gulf Coast due to potentially serious midstream constraints. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where the feedgas supply is likely to come from and what that will mean for pricing dynamics.

I Got Up At 3:00 A.M. To Post This — November 29, 2022

 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1597106643329687552