Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Putin's War Of Attrition -- April 12, 2022

One can follow Putin's War from a number of angles: political (genocide); economic (the war's impact on Russia's economy); and, of course, the military aspect. 

I track the economic aspect and the military aspect elsewhere.

In the twelve years or so of blogging, I've only posted a handful of blogs of which I'm pretty proud. The Vietnam analogy, March 26, 2022, was one of those posts. The other was the Devon post.

I was reminded of that again today with this story that appeared in The Washington Post in the last twenty-four hours, as noted by Peter Zeihan

Look at the "heavy artillery" that the US is sending to Ukraine at this link

Putin's War is going to end up being a war of attrition for the Russians. For Putin, there is no longer any end game. 

This is almost the "perfect" war for the US. The longer this war lasts, the worst it will be for Russia. I'm not saying the US will purposely let the war drag on. In fact, one can argue that the US has little impact on how long the war lasts; it will end when it ends. But each week the war drags on, Russia's economy is set back one year. 

The military hardware and soldiers lost to date by the Russians is incredible. Putin has limited resources for re-supply. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have an "unlimited" military resupply. 

*******************************
The Politics Of Putin's War

It goes without saying that Biden is gaining politically from this war. Polls suggest the majority of Americans are buying into Biden's assertion that America's high-priced gasoline and inflation and a recession, if there is one, can all be blamed on Russia. 

No Daily Activity Report Today -- NDIC Office Closed Due To Global Warming -- April 12, 2022

Guyana: so profitable for Exxon, it's investing another $10 billion on the play. Link to Matthew Smith

  • estimates: 10 billion bbls of recoverable oil resources

Oil: prices hold despite large build, weekly API report. EIA data tomorrow morning.  From Josh Young:

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$100.90
4/12/202204/12/202104/12/202004/12/201904/12/2018
Active Rigs3717366359

An XTO Pelton Well That Maintained Incredible Production Over Three Years -- April 12, 2022

The well:

  • 34159, 277, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35GXH, API 33-025-03382, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum 361K 2/22;

Full production here. 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20222814968150221602245464409224538
BAKKEN1-2022311734117535177964113340697430
BAKKEN12-2021311930019179183643565334839808
BAKKEN11-202130190501869120292298132971394
BAKKEN10-20213931107126061321129526
BAKKEN9-2021168515882988931302112448570
BAKKEN8-2021311807017974202672621925650559
BAKKEN7-20213121002213692081331531294772046
BAKKEN6-20213021134208362114530046255364499
BAKKEN5-20213120092202552069828122182709840
BAKKEN4-20213021489215452173630370030358
BAKKEN3-20213121272212492196729895029882
BAKKEN2-20212820095198372118426946026934
BAKKEN1-20213116332159911685218798018789
BAKKEN12-20206192218721719172501724
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-2020005620000
BAKKEN9-20202225814253232382932781032764
BAKKEN8-20204170316321539178301782
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-2019001170000
BAKKEN8-20191387008793127801102766164385
BAKKEN7-20193117463176752582021324911112177
BAKKEN6-20193014123140312094718373146473687
BAKKEN5-2019311303013029204721493468148074
BAKKEN4-20192818895190372821324214880415361
BAKKEN3-20191619234187631867315178502410118
BAKKEN2-2019104360000
BAKKEN1-2019344103407510169318

Random: Updating Wells That Came Off Confidential List Three Years Ago --April 12, 2022

From three years ago:

Sunday, May 20, 2018: 55 wells for the month; 144 wells for the quarter

  • 34158, SI/NC, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35D, Bear Creek, no production data,
  • 33826, SI/NC, WPX, Mandaree South 30-31HQ, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 32024, SI/NC, MRO, Ness USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, no production data, 

Let's update those wells.

The wells:

  • 34158, SI/NC, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35D, Bear Creek, t1/19;  cum 224K 2/22; initial production:
BAKKEN8-201926290752913323538370502222814734
BAKKEN7-201931372183746629305472141994227192
BAKKEN6-20193023311230571653725727197285936
BAKKEN5-20193117437174301231018651838310210
BAKKEN4-201928249532492817641303541103619256
BAKKEN3-20191016755163451106719774654513182

  • 33826, 2,264, WPX, Mandaree South 30-31HQ, Reunion Bay, t5/18; cum 304K 2/22; initial production. Well #19603 in same area just went over 600K bbls crude oil cumulative.
BAKKEN12-20183123458234201193840050372120
BAKKEN11-20183027229272651368333945308470
BAKKEN10-20183122591227041134621756170222099
BAKKEN9-2018271291512426830012864112370
BAKKEN8-2018291175211810810013543120310
BAKKEN7-201821936695088424901855712197
BAKKEN6-20182626857266162728525863160626593
BAKKEN5-20183028060278562172327023483718883
  • 32024, 7,956, MRO, Ness USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 481K 2/22; initial production. Well #20529 with significant halo effect from this well.
BAKKEN2-20192837934378451713557509551049805
BAKKEN1-20193050879514952489765633581656884
BAKKEN12-2018214453944245158375275064349565
BAKKEN11-20181031785335221642443011041173
BAKKEN10-20181453801514772788854970051948

Shanghai's Tesla Factory Could Be Closed Until Mid-May -- APril 12, 2022

EVs: link here. Scorecard

New: Shanghai's Tesla factory could be shuttered until mid-May