Thursday, August 12, 2021

Notes From All Over -- August 12, 2021

US crude oil supply "in days." Link here.

27.4 days, first week, August, 2021.

Down from 27.5 the week before. 

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Other Stuff

Louisiana legal stuff: this gets way into the weeds, but my hunch -- there are some readers interested. The reader who sent me this, says this was the result of Trump-appointed judges. See this post.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Twenty-year high: PFE. And no, I'm not going to post  Rocky Mountain High; I have to draw the line somewhere. LOL.

Lumber: drops to nine-month low, extending retreat from record. Link here.

AMD: Zacks, August 11, 2021.

Jobless claims: yawn. Exactly what is being tracked? Why is it worth following? It's one thing to track jobless numbers during a recession when there is a shortage of jobs, but jobless claims when there are 10 million job openings across the US. If there's one metric that doesn't matter today, it's the jobless metric. 

Big oil, big dividends: link to Irina Slav.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Rig Counts Don't Matter -- August 12, 2021

Rig counts don't matter (don't take that out of context). From Trading Economics:

Do folks remember this post, posted a few days ago?

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Saudi Aramco

CNBC

  • Aramco’s net income of $25.5 billion for the quarter compares to $6.6 billion in the same quarter of 2020.
  • The result beat expectations, with analysts expecting a median net income of $24.7 billion for the quarter. 
  • Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a stunning 288% increase in net income to $25.5 billion for the second quarter, while maintaining its dividend of $18.8 billion, as big oil benefits from higher prices and a recovery in worldwide demand.

Rigs don't matter, following worst timing ever, January - March, 2020, graphic below, note the ever-so-subtle jump in rig count. Saudi records an incredible quarter after slashing rigs from fifty to less than thirty.



Again, A Reader Is Ahead Of The Buzz -- Propane -- August 12, 2021

This is pretty cool. This from RBN Energy today:

RBN Energy: propane exports continue to pull US inventories lower.

The EIA report on propane inventories that came out yesterday was a shocker. This time of year, stocks are supposed to be building toward the levels needed to get U.S. propane markets through the winter season. But the numbers released on Wednesday showed an inventory decline, resulting in inventory balances now below the five-year minimum.

The culprit, of course, is exports, with 1.4 MMb/d of them reported last week, a 17% gain over the year-to-date average. And these cargoes to overseas markets are happening even with propane prices in the stratosphere: more than double where they stood this time last year.

Propane marketers were hoping that higher prices would slow down exports, but so far that is not happening. In today’s blog, we examine U.S. exports of LPG — propane plus butane — and discuss what may be ahead for these markets.

From a reader a few days ago:

There has been SO much hydrocarbon info coming out these past several days, one has a difficult time keeping up.

One of the odder data points came from Energy Transfer's conference call when the CEO said a Memorandum Of Understanding has been reached with the government of Panama to study the feasibility of building propane terminals on either coast of Panama and a pipeline to connect them.
To say I was taken aback would be an understatement, but the more I pondered the current and future scenarios, it actually may make a lot of sense.

Condensed 'story' ...
There are now small fleets of HUGE ships csrrying propane (LPG) non stop to new, HUGE petchem  plants in China and India. 
This is in addition to the robust push for  expanded heating/cooking applications to propane from wood, coal, etc. 
These big ships (using onboard propane for fuel) can 'zip' back and forth reliably from a west coast terminal. 
The LPG can, somewhat, be economically ferried down to the  east coast of Panama from Texas terminals using older, smaller ships that are  increasingly becoming obsolete for longer voyages.
Amazing example of global ripple effect that has its origins in the free market economy and adventurous risk takers like Harold, et al.

For Tomorrow -- August 13, 2021

Link here

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: this data may not be current. Active rig data is reported by the NDIC at close of business every non-holiday weekday.

$69.00
8/12/202108/12/202008/12/201908/12/201808/12/2017
Active Rigs2311616057P

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: propane exports continue to pull US inventories lower.

The EIA report on propane inventories that came out yesterday was a shocker. This time of year, stocks are supposed to be building toward the levels needed to get U.S. propane markets through the winter season. But the numbers released on Wednesday showed an inventory decline, resulting in inventory balances now below the five-year minimum.

The culprit, of course, is exports, with 1.4 MMb/d of them reported last week, a 17% gain over the year-to-date average. And these cargoes to overseas markets are happening even with propane prices in the stratosphere: more than double where they stood this time last year.

Propane marketers were hoping that higher prices would slow down exports, but so far that is not happening. In today’s blog, we examine U.S. exports of LPG — propane plus butane — and discuss what may be ahead for these markets.

What A Great Country -- August 11, 2021

While traveling for the past two weeks or so, I didn't keep up with the news, but it seemed like every time I checked in the Dow and S&P 500 were hitting new highs. And I think I saw a headline today that the Dow and S&P 500 hit new highs again today.

The ten-year treasury fell a bit today but is trending higher, now at 1.349 percent. I guess talking heads say it will trend toward 2%. OMG. That could derail this market.

US dollar (DXY): 92.88 -- about where it's been since November, 2020.

WTI: after falling to $65 over the weekend WTI has recovered and is now back to $69 and change. I was hoping to sell shares in EOG and buy shares in a different Permian operator but may have missed my opportunity. I don't put new money into oil, but will trade within the sector. New money is being invested with Cathie Wood. 

Dividends payable August 12, 2021: AAPL and EPD. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

For gardeners only: this is a pretty good story. When I was growing up in Williston, ND, my mother made the best rhubarb pie in the world. Period. Dot. 

When my mom moved out to Flathead Lake (Lakeside, MT), to the family summer home that became her retirement home, she took a few "stalks" (is that what they are called?) of rhubarb from her garden in Williston, ND, and transplanted them to a little plot in the corner of her yard on Flathead Lake.

I'm using the term "garden" loosely. The only garden plant mom ever planted that survived was rhubarb, and it was only three or four plants, but I digress.

My mom was sure the rhubarb plant she planted in Montana was inside her lot lines. [In literature, that's called foreshadowing.]

Well, apparently some years ago, some temporary renters living in the house behind her were "stealing" her rhubarb. LOL. That became a thing for a few summers. No gunfights at the "OK Corral" but words were spoken. 

My mom has passed on to the big rhubarb garden in the sky and a sister has bought the house. During the family reunion, the rhubarb story came up again, and we decided to sort this out once and for all. [No, we had not been drinking.]

We got out the "original" deed, checked the legal description which included the latitude and longitude of the lot lines. 

We then went out with someone's brand new iPhone and brand new "map" app and set the phone in the middle of the rhubarb plant.

The plant is one foot outside Mom's lot lines. It's possible some of the rhubarb stalks lean into mom's lot (it's a huge plant), but the law, I'm sure, states that where the main body of stalks enter the topsoil marks the "official location." If so, that's not good news for my mom's heirs who like homemade rhubarb pie.

This summer our sister who now owns the house says her goal this summer is to transplant the rhubarb plant three feet to the southeast, putting the plant clearly inside her lot lines. 

She will do it under cover of darkness. 

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The Making Of ....

Link to Lana Del Rey, Young and Beautiful --