The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Saturday, July 31, 2021

Sturgis: If We Can't Do Fireworks At Mt Rushmore, We Can Build Back Better In Sturgis -- Payback Hurts -- July 31, 2021

Just the links without comment. Except for one or two.

By the numbers:

Sturgis, 2020: 462,000 attendees
summer riots, 2020: 15 to 26 million
summer riots 43x Sturgis
for the most part, the riots were peaceful

Super-spread events:

Sturgis: yes
George Floyd riots: no

Summer 2021 "Delta Variant Superspreader" event schedule:

Lollapalooza: happening now, Chicago; 100K
Sturgis rally: August 6 - 15, South Dakota, up to 500K expected
Gathering of the Juggalos: August 19 - 20, up to 100K usually attend (their logo even looks like the Covid virus, spikes and all)

Sturgis: will open every morning with Tanya Tucker's Delta Dawn followed by the National Anthem, Lana Del Rey.

Theme song: Tanya Tucker's Delta Dawn.

AAPL: Borrowing Money To Repurchase Shares -- Doing The Math -- iPad Sales -- July 11, 2021

Jim Cramer says Apple, Inc, can now buy a boatload of its own shares -- a buyback -- having just borrowed $6.5 billion.

Let's do the math.

Outstanding shares: 16.53 billion (16,530,000,000)
Share price: $145.86
Market cap: $2.4 trillion ($2,411,000,000,000)

At $145.86, how many shares can be bought with $6.5 billion?

6,500,000,000 / 145.86 = 44,563,280

What percent of outstanding shares does that represent?

44,563,280 / 16,530,000,000 = 0.0026959 or 0.26959%.

Now, switching gears.

16,530,000,000 - 44,563,280 =16,485,436,710 shares.

Today, market cap of $2.411 trillion with share price at $145.86 and 16.53 billion shares.

Keeping market cap at $2.411 trillion; and dividing by "new number of shares after the theoretical buyback" = $2.411 trillion / 16,485,436,710 = $146.25.

So, Apple, Inc. borrows $6.5 billion for share buyback and all things being equal, increases the value of the shares from $145.86 to $146.25.

Hellooooo! AAPL shares were just shy of $150 before the buyback was announced and before the company announced it would borrow $6.5 billion for share buybacks.

In this market, share repurchases and fundamentals seem to make little (no) difference in the perceived value of these companies or their shares. It's all about MOJO, FOMO, YOLO, ESG, emotion, the Fed, and hucksters.

TheStreet headline: Apple stock gains on new bond sale plans: Jim Cramer sees share buybacks.

Nonsense.

They can spin this anyway they want, but the average mom-and-pop retail investor cares not for repurchase programs.

On the other hand, the following note is what Apple fanboys like to see: Apple shipped more tablets than Samsung and Amazon did combined last quarter. Link here.

While the iPad has long been the world's most popular tablet, newly published market research helps put Apple's lead into perspective.

According to estimates shared by research firm IDC, Apple shipped 12.9 million iPads in the second quarter of 2021. By comparison, IDC estimated that Samsung and Amazon shipped a combined 12.3 million tablets in the quarter, suggesting that Apple shipped more tablets than Samsung and Amazon did combined in the quarter.

iPad sales continued to surge last quarter as many people continue to work, learn, and communicate with others remotely. According to Apple CEO Tim Cook, the ‌iPad‌ had its best June quarter in nearly a decade, with the company reporting iPad revenue of $7.4 billion in the quarter, a significant increase over $6.6 billion in the year-ago quarter.

***************************
Ted Lasso

Apple's biggest hit is an overnight success eight years in the making. Link here.

Friday, July 30, 2021

That Petro-Hunt Pad North Of Charlson -- July 30, 2021

Updates

August 13, 2021: cleanup update. Unremarkable.

August 9, 2021: the fires are all out at the pad.

August 3, 2021, 1:06 a.m.: update; it's still burning.

Original Post

See this post for background to this story.

For full production profile for the four wells mentioned in this post, see this post.

Still on fire at end of week. Started a week ago, Thursday. Goal to have it "under control" by end of this week.

Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, briefed members of the state Industrial Commission on the fire at a meeting on Tuesday. He said three wells are on fire, and a fourth has been shut down to prevent it from catching fire as well.
I tried figuring out what pad this was some days ago, but was unable. Now we have another hint: a four-well pad, north of Charlson and "just south" of the lake.
Going north of Charlson to the lake, there is only one four-well pad.

Okay, I haven't found any article that tells me which pad is involved. So, I will try again. I may be way off again, and if readers convince me I'm wrong, I will remove this post or at least that part of it that is clearly wrong.

So, here goes. Again, this is just conjecture.

Graphics below:

first map: the four wells, zoomed in; one will see only four wells, but five directional/horizontal legs in this graphic;
second map: the four wells, but note that one of the directional/horizontal legs was quite short (identified with a question mark), and the "second" horizontal from this well eventually went due south and ran parallel to the other three horizontal wells. In fact this well had two long laterals; after the short lateral abandoned, the long sidetrack #1 almost made it to planned depth, but problems again, for a second sidetrack (so this well has a lateral and two sidetracks).
third map: from google maps; the location of Charlson, ND, and the location of the only four-well pad north of Charlson.

First map:

Second map:

Third map:

For full production profile for the four wells mentioned in this post, see this post.

The wells:

34655, 1,748, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-1H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 555K 5/21; middle Bakken; F, cum 567K 6/21;
34656, 1,131, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-2H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 266K 5/21; Three Forks; AL, cum 276K 6/21;
34657, 1,328, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-3H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 587K 5/21; middle Bakken; F, cum 618K 6/21;
34658, 1,050, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-10-4H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 279K 5/21; Three Forks; F, cum 288K 6/21;

Liberty Resources -- EOR Project -- East Of Tioga -- Near Powers Lake -- July 30, 2021

Later: a reader asked what formation (Bakken, Madison, other) might be targeted below. My answer:

I have no idea but that's a great question. Based on the fact that so much focus and experience has been on the Bakken and the fact that they are injecting "rich gas" makes me think it is the middle Bakken. But I don't know.
Maybe a reader knows.

From Geoff Simon:

Denver-based Liberty Resources plans to take another run at an enhanced oil recovery project east of Tioga near Powers Lake.

The ND Industrial Commission approved the company's application this week to use an injection well for EOR purposes. Liberty previously worked in cooperation with EERC and the Department of Energy on an EOR project in its Stomping Horse Complex in Williams County. The project injected rich gas into an existing oil-bearing formation, but was not able to build adequate pressure to achieve the desired result.

The project approved this week is different, according to Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources. Helms said Liberty's injection mix will include a bio-surfactant intended to improve the lubricity of underground oil.