Plastic Use Surging -- February 8, 2021

Unedited, re-printed in its entirety, sent to me by a reader. I have no association with this website nor its company. This was a press release looking like a news story sent to "everyone" but even so it fits the narrative of the blog. 

A new report shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the environment due to increased plastic usage around the world – led by the United States with a 78% increase.  India’s plastic use is up 55% and China’s 50%.

While air travel, electricity usage and miles driven declined in 2020, increases in food delivery, online shopping, household trash and single-use personal protective equipment, has made the crisis of plastic in the ocean worse and it will nearly triple by 2040 to 29 million metric tons. [This is probably accurate; if hyperbole, the writer would have said, "30 million metric tons."]

ReUseThisBag.com today released a report, the Pandemic Plastic Waste Disaster, using the most recent data from the U.S. Transportation Department, Cirium data via FlightGlobal and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago.

The report found five factors during the pandemic devastating our environment:

1. Food Delivery: An increase in high plastic usage food takeaway (plastic bags utensils and packaging) and e-commerce orders (plastic packaging).
2. PPE: Massive spike in demand for single use personal protective equipment such as masks and gloves.
3. Reusable Bag Ban: Many areas that banned single use plastic bags, temporarily reversed course, and did not allow people to bring their own reusable bags to stores.
4. Recycling Centers Down: During lockdown, limited staff meant that recycling centers around the world were not operational, so trash ended up in landfills and the ocean.
5. Cheaper Plastic Due to Lower Oil Prices: Decreased oil prices meant that producing plastic became even cheaper, hences driving up demand.

Several Key Findings:

·         Plastic Waste Surging: Countries with the highest increase in plastic usage during the pandemic: U.S.: 78% increase, Singapore: 65%, South Korea: 65%, Vietnam: 57%, India: 55%, China: 50%.

·         Electricity Usage Down in U.S.: On Nov. 29, 2020, electricity usage in the United States was down 3% from the previous year.  However, it was up 5.1% in the United Kingdom. [Need to explore this further.]

·         Air Travel: The number of passengers declined significantly at the top eight airports in the U.S. led by LAX down 67.3%.

Super Bowl LV Data Points -- February 8, 2021

Probably the best game ever on so many levels. If you are a Brady fan. LOL. 

Brady:

• beat Taylor Heinicke, Aaron Rogers, beat Drew Brees, all in their home stadia
• beat Mahomes
• seventh ring
• not going to be repeated

Super Bowl LV memes:

• "running for his life"
• "passing the ball while horizontal"
• "this is not basketball; one player does not make the team"
  

Bottom line: KCC schooled. 

Owner, coaches, players:

• stayed in their lanes;
• no distractions (can one imagine the Jerry Jones distractions had Dallas been playing? Quick: name the owner of the TBB; for that matter, quick: name the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys this past season and the coach)
• if you can, good for you; if you can't it's because the only names we heard all season re: DC was Jerry Jones and Dak Prescott;
  

Handicap:

• not reported prior to the game to any great extent but perhaps biggest story was KCC's distractions off the field
• KCC losing two first string inside linemen due to injuries

Defensive line, TBB:

• under-reported
• think: "purple people-eaters"; 
• think: Chicago Bears
• does anyone think of the TB Bucs when talking about their defensive line
  

Defensive line, coaching, TBB:

• kept it simple, understood KCC: one-trick pony: a quarterback that could win by passing
• solution: advice to front four -- pay no attention to anyone else; just go after Mahomes on every play;
• learned that Mahomes preferred running to the right, then passing
• solution: force Mahomes out of his comfort zone; push him to the left
• even on a winning day, KCC had no running game
• once they fell behind (and stopped in the red zone three times), KCC then had only one game: the passing game
  

Offense, TBB:

• keep it simple, understood the concept of the "queen bee"; protect TB12 at all costs;
• sacked once?
• TB12 standing upright at end of 99% of all plays?
• never scrambled, except that one time going after a loose ball after a bad snap;
  
• multi-dimensional: strong running game when it counted
• passing: TB12 had only 200 passing yards

Offense, KCC:

• best (?) offense in the NFL going into the game;
• not one touchdown in this Super Bowl LV
• two "fails" in the red zone
• receivers dropping perfectly thrown balls

Franchise:

• KCC: Mahomes (quick: name four other players on the KCC team)
• TBB: the team (quick: name four other players on the TBB team)
• the media says the frachise was TB12
• it's TB12, only if one sees Brady as the conditioning coach, quarterback, spiritual leader, role model, and "tough love" boss;
• of all those, one wonders if "role model" was the most important; my hunch, despite being 43 years old, he pushed himself physically more than many players had seen before;
  

Special teams:

• absent, as far as I could tell; not needed
  
• long-distance field goals: kickers not getting the attention they deserve; valuable for two reasons
  

Penalties:

• 120 yards against the KCC; third-worst in Super Bowl history
  
• perhaps one or two should not have been called on the KCC and at least one was pivotal, favoring TBB, but "come on, man" -- a dozen penalties (or thereabout) on KCC and one on the TBBz

Composure:

• penalties lead us back to composure
• simply put: KCC lost their composure
• TB12's leadership would ensure TBB would not lose their composure

TB12:

• with all the above, Brady only had to play "smart." And he played very, very, very smart.
• no interceptions; technically one but called back due to penalty on defense;
• best TB play? high snap, ball sails over head; TB doesn't try to scoop it up and save the play; falls on it preventing a takeaway; how often have we seen a QB / running back try to scoop it up, only losing the ball in the process
• the way his defense played and the way his team played, one wonders if 90% of NFL quarterbacks could have won that game for the Bucs?
  

Biggest question:

• Really, how good was Belichick?

Occasionally someone mentions this:

• post-drink-driving KCC assistant coach leaves 5-year-old girl in coma; interestingly enough, the blood alcohol level has not been released; nor has the driven been charged? Only two to three drinks.
  

Notes From All Over -- The Mid-Day Edition -- February 8, 2021

Why not? $3,600 in direct payments per child. That's what the article said. Link here. 

Why not? The Dow added more than 100 points, or 0.4%, to a fresh record high, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also reached record intraday levels. Bitcoin prices spiked more than 12% to a record high of more than $43,000 after Tesla disclosed it purchased $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency and may start allowing customers to use Bitcoin to purchase products.

Elon Musk: never fails to surprise. One of the few CEOs able to separate quarterly earnings (reality) from the dream.  I'm not sure if I can say the same for Steve Jobs. I think Jobs had a higher wall to climb. Elon Musk simply went around the wall and the rest is history.

Best thing about Texas? Not quite, but makes the top ten list: kolaches for lunch. Especially jalapeño kolaches for lunch. Story later, if I remember.

Biggest disappointment: sub-par analysis of the game last night on top ESPN talk shows this morning. I'll come back to this later. 

Most fascinating marque right now: Mercedes' electric profits to match those from internal combustion engines by 2029. Link here. 

UK in trouble. Link here.

Gasoline demand: Bloomberg must be reading the blog. San Francisco traffic drop shows gasoline rebound still elusive. Link here.

• toll bridges take 3% few vehicle in January
• year-over-year: down 20% to 30%
• demand recovery might stall if driving doesn't push market
• slump also in Los Angeles
• look at this: gasoline demand, at 7.8 million bbls/day, is the lowest this century for this time of the year

Had enough? NYC to reopen Broadway, large venues, with extensive Covid teting, says Governor Cuomo.

Hess With Two More Nice Wells In The Bakken -- February 8, 2021

Judge in Alaska shuts down COP .... and the Bakken just keeps on truckin'. And literally, with the possibility of the DAPL shut down, the Bakken may be truckin'. LOL. But until then. a few things to cheer:

Monday, February 8, 2021: two nice wells coming off the confidential list today.

• 37067, F/A, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-10, 33-061-04619, Alkali Creek, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 134K 12/20; fracked 5/27/20 - 6/5/20; 6.6 million gallons of water; 84.1% water by mass; 42K over 20 days extrapolates to 62K over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	17020	17128	10648	24313	24006	307
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	22243	22179	12551	34322	33147	1175
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	24955	25030	14651	38039	37530	509
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	28143	28146	17421	44841	42572	2269
BAKKEN	8-2020	20	41531	41331	21267	56297	35496	20801

• 36811, AL/A, Hess, TI-Jenson-158-94-08-5H-1, 33-061-04552, Tioga, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 61K 12/20; fracked 6/20/20 - 7/2/20: 7.9 million gallons of water; 86.4% water by mass:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	9686	9735	15673	10179	10177	2
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	12352	12228	15053	9942	9274	668
BAKKEN	10-2020	16	4814	4918	8999	3707	3707	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	24	18103	18140	24077	12717	12698	19
BAKKEN	8-2020	21	15717	15495	25777	8839	8816	23

From the well files.

The TI-Jensen well:

• spud: April 4, 2020
• cease drilling: April 11, 2020
• seven days
• middle Bakken
• logging services began April 5, 2020, 4:55 p.m. CT
• KOP reached at 9,232' on April 6, 2020, 10: p.m. CT; about 1.5 days
• curve
• began: April 7, 6:25 a.m.
• completed, middle Bakken, 9,232' on April 7, 2020, at 4:30 p.m. CT; less than 12 hours;
• lateral
• began: April 9, 2020, 3:45 a.m. CT
• completed: April 11, 2020, 7:16 a.m. CT; two days drilling
  
• total drilling: about four days; 
• very low gas; franded from 11 to 713 units;
  

The EN-Labar well:

• spud: February 20, 2020
• cease drilling: February 28, 2020
• target: Three Forks
• curve
• began at depth of 10,331' MD, February 23, 2020, at 8:20 a.m. CT 
• completed: 11,112' MD; February 24, 2020 at 7:00 am. CT; one full day
• lateral
• began: February 26, 2020, 1:25 a.m. 
• completed: 21,353' TD, 10,637.52' TVD; February 28, 2020, 8:55 p.m. CT; 3.5 days 
• gas: averaged 652 units with a maximum of 2,116 units; 
  

Will WTI Hit $58 Today? Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- February 8, 2021

Frigid weather: severe now but soon coming to an end. Natural gas doing well, but still below $3.00. Who wudda thought. 

Wow: WTI flirting with $58. Up almost 2%; up another $1.05; trading at $57.90.

Monday morning:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. 1.176% trending up.
  
• DXY: link here. 90.92 trending down.
  
• Silver: link  here. $27.560 trending up.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. 21.66 trending up

10:1: finally a nice example, back to 10:1 -- mid-morning trading:

• DOW 30: 31,300; up 151.49 points
• S&P 500: 3,900; up 15.2 points -- can't get much closer than that.
  

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$57.90	2/8/2021	02/08/2020	02/08/2019	02/08/2018	02/08/2017
Active Rigs	14	54	64	57	37

Monday, February 8, 2021: 5 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 38 for the year.

• 37067, F/A, Hess, EN-Labar-15409401003H-10, Alkali Creek, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 134K 12/20;
  
• 36811, AL/A, Hess, TI-Jenson-158-94-0805H-1, Tioga, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 61K 12/20;
  

RBN Energy: frigid weather blasting into propane country, markets brace for supply disruptions.

A blast of Arctic air plunges the Midwest and Northeast into deep freeze. Already-low propane inventories result in supply shortages in local markets. Propane transport trucks move product hundreds of miles from storage hubs to replenish regional terminals as markets scramble to meet surging propane demand. Are we talking about the nightmarish polar vortex winter of 2013-14, when regional propane inventories were sucked down dangerously low and Conway, KS, propane prices skyrocketed to almost $5.00/gal? No. We are talking about now. This is a description of what is happening today in U.S. propane country –– that belt of northern states that depend heavily on propane for heating. But this is not 2013-14. Things have changed. So in today’s blog we’ll explore how the latest polar vortex could be quite different than that weather-driven crisis seven years ago. 

We’ve been particularly interested in the propane market this winter, where we warned of the possibility of a coming propane price squeeze. The big issue was exports, which were running at all-time highs and had the potential to deplete inventories at record rates. We worried that average days-supply, when calculated using both domestic demand and exports, had dropped to a five-year low, and that the market could get very tight. By January, that was just how things were playing out, with markets further complicated by long delays at the Panama Canal and, as a consequence, skyrocketing shipping rates. Then, a couple of weeks agowe looked at how frigid weather in Asia had pulled even more U.S. propane into export markets, and how that resulted in a Mont Belvieu price spike up to 95 cents/gallon (c/gal), and over a dollar per gallon at the Conway hub in Kansas. We wrapped up that blog by stating the blindingly obvious: “The short term is all in the hands of Mother Nature.”