Tuesday, January 12, 2021
EIA STEO Scheduled To Be Released Today -- January 12, 2021
EIA STEO scheduled to be released today. The short-term energy outlook is released on the first Tuesday after the first Thursday of each month. Release time: generally between 12:00 p.m. (noon) and 12:15 p.m. EDT (summer) and EST (winter). Link here. At that link, click on the PDF icon at the top of the page.
This note from last night, link here:
Asia -- "Never See Snow Again" -- January 12, 2021
Updates
January 14, 2021: could this turn into a humanitarian crisis?
Original Post
They saw this coming four weeks ago -- back on December 18, 2020: electricity prices jump as winter chill hits Japan. Link here. Electricity prices surged to 59 cents/kilowatt hour -- thirty of thirty-three nuclear reactors off line and prices of LNG skyrocketing.
Fears of Japan blackouts as power prices hit record highs! Cold snap and low LNG supplies leave portions of electricity system with little capacity. Wow, these advanced nations are looking more and more like third-world countries now that they've turned to renewable energy. But I guess that's the price to be paid to save the earth. Link here to Financial Times.
Japanese electricity prices have soared to all-time highs as a cold snap coincides with tight supplies of liquefied natural gas to raise fears of blackouts in parts of the country.
Power companies begged their customers to leave the heating on but turn off other appliances as the electricity system hit 99 per cent of its maximum capacity in western parts of the country on Tuesday.
The spike in energy prices comes just two months before the tenth anniversary of the Fukushima disaster — the aftermath of which pushed Japan into a radical rethink of its energy mix away from nuclear power — and two months after it announced an ambitious plan to become carbon neutral by 2050.
Warnings of potential blackouts come with just three of Japan’s 33 nuclear reactors in operation, leading experts to predict that the current crisis could add an urgency and strength to government efforts to accelerate the restart programme.
A week of unusually severe weather has dumped more than a metre of snow on parts of the country and prompted many households, which are working from home because of Covid-19, to turn up the heating.
Japan scrambles! Link here.
LNG Asian benchmark: link here.
Freezing in Asia: link here.
How's that coal phase-out working out for Japan? Link here.
Apple: January 12, 2021
Updates
January 14, 2021: did anyone else catch this? Bloomberg: missing chips snarl car production at factories worldwide:
After first wiping out auto demand, the virus is now hindering parts supply: chips used in vehicles are harder to come by because semiconductor manufacturers allocated more capacity to meet soaring demand from consumer-electronics makers such as Apple Inc.
January 13, 2021: Now this: global iPhone shipments up 10% in 2020 compared to previous year. Apple bucked a trend as falling global smartphone shipments in 2020 by increasing its shipment rate by over 10% copared to the previous year.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.Global smartphone shipments suffered an overall 8.8% decline to 1.24 billion units last year, due in part to the crippling effects of the health crisis.
Despite that, however, worldwide shipments of 5G-enabled smartphones reached as high as 280-300 million units in 2020, up from the 20 million units shipped a year earlier, indicating a surge in demand for the faster data speed.
In the first quarter of 2020, global shipments "dove over 20% on year in the first quarter of 2020, fell by a double-digit rate in the second, and narrowed the decline to a single digit in the third, before staging a single-digit rebound in the fourth," according to the DigiTimes' figures.
Samsung and Huawei felt the impact worst over the course of the year, both seeing their shipments dip by a double-digit rate. Out of the top six smartphone brands in 2020, only Apple and Xiaomi managed to ramp up their shipments compared to 2019.
Original Post
Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here.
The Street, four hours ago. Link here.
From the linked Street article:
- evidence continues to mount that Apple likely had a killer fiscal first quarter (Oct - Dec 2020)
- Mac: unusually high demand throughout the pandemic year and holiday season should be no different
- if so, iPhone and Mac will deliver a 'one-two punch on earning day
- IDC says Apple shipments should be "on fire"
- Mac shipments skyrocketed, to the tune of nearly 50%
- Apple's market share increased to 8.0% from 6.8% in the previous holiday; no other manufacturer experienced growth at these levels
- Apple may have benefited from the introduction of the M1-equipped models (previously posted)
- again, no "whisper numbers"
Whisper numbers: no one seems willing to post whisper numbers. This is the best I've found:
Analysts will be keen to see if the quarter will beat the record-breaking 1Q20 quarter, which saw revenue of $91.8 billion stemming from extremely strong iPhone 11 sales. There is some uncertainty surrounding whether or not Apple will set another revenue record, given much of 2020 was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected both Apple's production and sales.
Flashback: 1Q20 -- AAPL: best quarter ever. Shares surge. One year ago: $4.99 / undiluted share.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Exceeded: iPhone 12 sales in China hit nearly 18 million units in 4Q20; exceeded all expectations: link here.
16% increase: Apple shipped 16% more PCs in 2020: link here.
Mad Mac! Mac shipments rise significantly inQ20 amid overall PC market growth: link here.
To the best of my knowledge Apple never / rarely "misses" when earnings are announced.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 12, 2021
I'm following several stories. Several posts in the past few days and updates later today:
- huge reversal on Covid from NY governor Cuomo;
- Florida and Covid
- energy crisis in Japan;
- freezing weather in China;
- LNG surge in Asia;
- incomprehensible cold in Spain;
- Apple;
- semiconductor chips;
Fired! Philadelphia Eagles fire the coach.
Is NDIC embargoing list of active rigs? Third day site is down.
********************************
Apple
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Exceeded: iPhone 12 sales in China hit nearly 18 million units in 4Q20; exceeded all expectations: link here.
16% increase: Apple shipped 16% more PCs in 2020: link here.
Mad Mac! Mac shipments rise significantly inQ20 amid overall PC market growth: link here.
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Back to the Bakken
- still unable to access; have no idea what this is all about; map shows 12 active rigs;
- does NDIC have an embargo on active rigs list?
- WTI: $52.72
No wells coming off confidential list today.
RBN Energy: refiners cut CAPX and signal shift toward renewables.
In the spring of 2020, as the COVID-19 crisis started hitting the energy sector hard, many refiners made the tough decision to dramatically cut back capital spending plans and operating costs for the year in order to weather the storm. While these cuts were swift and sizeable, they were not absolute — they couldn’t be, given that refining is a capital-intensive industry with complex assets that require seemingly constant maintenance, equipment swap-outs, and upgrades. And then there’s the added pressure that refiners also need to invest in keeping their facilities in compliance with changing environmental rules, and to consider the overall impact of investments in new, “greener” fuels, such as renewable diesel, that may help them improve their profitability going forward. Today, we look at refiner capital spending in the context of recent history and highlights some of the growth projects being pursued in the sector.From a capital spending perspective, refiners are very different animals than exploration and production companies (E&Ps). Sure, both sectors of the energy industry require a lot of capital, but while E&Ps’ capex can ramp way up or way down year-to-year, reflecting shifts in hydrocarbon supply, demand, and (mostly) pricing, refiners’ spending tends to be more consistent over time. Why? Refiners focus primarily on maintaining existing assets and on making the incremental enhancements needed to refine new grades of crude, to expand refining capacity, and to comply with new environmental regulations.
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