September 1, 2020: refineries still getting back on their feet; but no major stories coming out of the region;
last week, Sunday, August 30, 2020 - Saturday, September 5, 2020
Keep those dates in mind when looking at the following:
One
can argue that this was because of Hurricane Laura, but Laura had
minimal impact on the oil sector compared to many, many other hurricanes
since 2010 when data was first available. So, blame it on "lo-impact
Laura" but that is hardly the answer ... and even if that's the answer,
that's still not much revenue for Saudi Arabia.
A reader provided an explanation:
The Saudi spike of oil imports, go back to March when Saudi Arabia was
negotiating oil production reductions that others (mainly Russia) that
would not comply. Saudi Arabia decided to rent a fleet of VLCCs to dump
~100,000,000 barrels of crude on the open market stored in VLCCs.
Where
is the safest place to park a VLCC full of crude oil without problems
of pirates? Of course, the coast of USA, lowers cost of insurance. Plus
Saudis own a big refinery that can process that crude. I believe that
this was a simple business decision of storing a few billions of $$$s
of crude oil safely, plus close to a market to eventually sell the crude
rather then move the VLCC to Asia. VLCC propulsion engines use a lot
of fuel
Wow, I feel like an idiot. The reader is exactly correct. I had forgotten all about that, and I had made a very, very big deal about that exact "thing."
Anyway, the reader got it exactly right. I'm impressed.
If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right. This is simply for the archives and the grandchildren.
It's Just A Matter Of Time, Randy Travis
Wow, talk about feeling mellow, relaxed.
It's been a busy, busy week.
May is still in Portland, OR, helping the younger daughter and her husband with six-month-old twins, Judah and Levi.
I'm in Grapevine, TX, where our older daughter, son-in-law, and three granddaughters live. The two older granddaughters are pretty much on their own: one is in her first year of high school; the other is a senior in high school completing her second year of college. Yes, you read that correctly. There are programs now available in which high school students can meet requirements for graduation in their first two years of high school, and then attend college for theor junior and senior years of high school, earning both their high school degree and an associate of arts degree upon graduation from "high school."
In Texas, those two years are entirely transferable to a four-year-Texas-college program.
Two of the three granddaughters are enrolled in school via remote / distance learning. The middle granddaughter is physically in school, her first year of high school, as noted above. It's a huge school. Two students have tested positive for Covid-19 but the school is pressing on. Good for them.
The youngest, Sophia, started first grade this year. She was really, really looking forward to:
her own desk;
recess with her friends; and,
riding on the bus.
Unfortunately not to be.
But wow, Sophia is having a blast.
The first three weeks of school for Sophia was a "soft opening." All elementary students were issued an iPad, WebEx, Seesaw, a lot of applications, and learned how to stream from home. After those three weeks, students were given the option of continuing to stream from home, or attending school in person. The decision deadline was mid-July and there was still a lot of concern, so the family decided to continue having Sophia stream from home.
This is the first full week of "real" school. Wow, it's worked out well. I am really, really impressed.
There are two components. The first component is the school, the admin staff, the teachers, the technology, the iPad, the WebEx, the apps. I am blown away. The teachers obviously spent their entire summer putting their end of the project together. I cannot believe how incredible the school-side of the operation is.
The second component is the home, the parent or whoever is helping the student at home. Sophia is very, very lucky.
This is Sophia's schedule. From 7:30 a.m. to noon she is assisted by her oldest sister and her dad who is working from home. At noon I pick Sophia up and take her to our apartment so Arianna can do her own schoolwork, and her dad can do his work, uninterrupted.
Sophia knows how to sign in; she knows how to navigate the system to find her "main" teacher, as well her "specials" and her physical education teacher. Once in the morning, for half an hour, the teachers, school room students, and the streamers are in synchronous mode on WebEx (a much better system than Zoom based on what I've read, and way, way better than Microsoft Teams). Then, the students are "on their own" until 2:15 when they have another synchronous period.
Sophia and I have turned the entire dining room table and dining room itself into her classroom.
Here she is at one of her specials, music:
I keep a daily "journal" of Sophia's activities which I give to the parents at the end of the day.
In addition, Sophia keeps her own journal on WebEx / Seesaw. I assume it's called Seesaw because there is a constant give-and-take between the teacher and the student, and between the parents and the teacher. Back and forth, or up and down, like a seesaw. It's incredibly clever.
For streamers, the process can be incredibly efficient. Much more so than the experience at school. No standing in lines waiting for everyone to walk to the lunch room; no waiting for everyone to wash hands, use the restrooms, etc.
The students are locked into the choice the parents made during the summer for the first 9-week grading period. After the first 9-week grading period, if the virus is still an issue, students will have the option for remaining a streamer or going back to school.
I think being a streamer is much, much better from an educational point of view, but from a "whole student" point of view, Sophia needs to "go to school." But wow, we're enjoying the gift we have now.
******************************************* Another View The Sad Realities of Virtual Learning
Although Frederick M. Hess pretty much has it right -- I disagree with a few things he says -- but I wonder if he has written the "biography" of distance learning too soon.
I don't know if he mentioned it directly, but it was clear from the long essay, with distance learning the gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" will widen. And not by just a trivial amount.
Oh-oh: three cities in Texas in huge financial difficulty if their universities don't open soon. And very soon. One link here.
College football: rumors that the Big 10 might be re-thinking that decision for no football this year.
Hurricane Laura: landfall, August 26, 2020
September 1, 2020: refineries still getting back on their feet; but no major stories coming out of the region;
last week, Sunday, August 30, 2020 - Saturday, September 5, 2020
Keep those dates in mind when looking at the following:
One can argue that this was because of Hurricane Laura, but Laura had minimal impact on the oil sector compared to many, many other hurricanes since 2010 when data was first available. So, blame it on "lo-impact Laura" but that is hardly the answer ... and even if that's the answer, that's still not much revenue for Saudi Arabia.
LNG: Cheniere's Sabine Pass LNG resumes normal ops (September 9, 2020) but Sempra's Cameron still shut.
East Africa supply hub? Trafigura will invest in Berbera Oil Terminal in Somalilandto to position the complex as a regional supply hub. Yemen and Somali are models of success -- President Barack Obama. That link is broken, but you can read the story here. Berbera: Gulf of Aden; just south of the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb (Djibouti), connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Portland, OR: the mayor bans police use of tear gas. That tells me things aren't all that bad in downtown Portland. I assume the next step is to simply remove the police from downtown.
Seattle, WA: Amazon to hire 33,000 new corporate jobs; average compensation said to be $150K. That's "average," which means the compensation for some will be greater than $150K. None of those new hires will be found on Long Island, NY.
NYC: I haven't watched CNBC since Tuesday, September 8, 2020, and I have no plans to watch CNBC until September 15, 2020. I was watching CNBC quite "religiously" until Tuesday. What I found most interesting: CNBC "never" covered / seldom mentioned the debacle in their own backyard. I don't think folks realize how bad it is. Now we see know. From ZeroHedge:
A stunning new report shows that more than 300 storefronts are now
vacant along Broadway. It marks a 78% increase from three years ago.
More than 33% of those vacancies were located between 14th and 59th
streets, in the heart of Manhattan.
The tally was calculated by Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer
and her staff in late August while visiting 13 miles and 244 blocks. Her
staff was able to count 39 empty storefronts between 96th and 125th
street, 66 empty spots between 59th and 96th street and 43 vacancies
below 14th street.
NY: will probably increase taxes on the "wealthy."
MIA: I haven't seen an article by Nick Cunningham over at Oilprice since late August. He normally had an article every other day, sometimes two consecutive days.
First things first: tennis tonight, and NFL. Rumors are the NFL football game will be quite a spectacle for #BLM and social justice. Could be fun to watch.
$20-oil? Some time ago, there were predictions that WTI could hit $20. It never happened. The tea leaves suggest it could happen this time. I think GS was predicting $20-oil about the same time they were betting on $100-oil.
Headline: floating storage begins to fill up as demand wavers. $20-oil? Don't bet against it. I think we're going to see a new wave of bankruptcies, mergers, asset sales, etc. That's easy. The question is will we see some "action" among the majors? Where will we see headlines next? Drillers or refiners?
******************************************* Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$37.30
9/10/2020
09/10/2019
09/10/2018
09/10/2017
09/10/2016
Active Rigs
12
64
66
55
37
Eleven new permits, #37830 - #37840:
Operators: MRO (7); WPX (3): Midwest AgEnergy Group
Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn County), Wildcat (McLean), Reunion Bay (Mountrail);
Comments:
MRO has permits for seven new USA wells in Reunion Bay (Mountrail County);
WPX has permits for three new Dakota wells in Mandaree oil field;
Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, has one new permit; this is the first ND permit for this company; at this website:
Categorized under Ethyl Alcohol, Ethanol. Our records show it was
established in 2013 and incorporated in ND. Current estimates show this
company has an annual revenue of 4799702 and employs a staff of
approximately 44; Spiritwood, ND, about 11 miles ENE of Jamestown, ND; there was a natural gas well drilled to about 5,000' back in 1984 or thereabouts; dry;
Two permits renewed:
Whiting: two Klose Federal permits in McKenzie County;
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
32386, SI/A, CLR, Antelope Federal 11-23H2, Elm Tree, --;
Delaware Basin acquisition includes acreage and proposed wells in Lea County, NM operated by EOG Resources
Northern expects monthly peak production from the acquisition of approximately 1,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day in mid-2021
Northern expects the transaction to be accretive to EV / EBITDA, corporate return on capital employed, earnings per share, and free cash flow metrics in 2021 and beyond
Northern is providing an operations update, adjusting Q3 2020 production guidance upward to 25,000 – 30,000 Boe per day
