Updates
Updates -- Evening Updates
March 13, 2020: was President Trump right about the CDC? Apparently The New York Times agrees with Trump on this one.
Updates -- Evening Updates
Politics:
- Super Tuesday polls closing soon. It looks like Colorado, Texas, and California will be the states to watch. The others were just fluff.
- the caucuses are for the birds. Virginia: it's barely 8:00 p.m. ET and already 93% of the votes are counted. If the DNC doesn't end the Iowa and Nevada circuses, the party is nuts.
- Pocahontas might take third in her home state. If so, she's toast.
- Biden handing off gun control to "hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns" - Beto O-Rourke -- dumbest move this election season yet.
- where Bloomberg started: Virginia -- and he is doing so poorly, unlikely to get any delegates; best news: money can't buy you a presidential nomination; money might buy you a presidential pardon, but not a nomination;
- Dems call for Mike Bloomberg to drop out of race: this is the worst showing by any candidate ever considering the amount of money spent, closing in on $1 billion with almost nothing to show for it; still delusional, saying he could win at a brokered convention.
Economy:
Flip-flop. I'm flip flopping.
Final update for March 3, 2020. Four most important data points:
This is an incredible interview:
- so why did the Dow drop 800 points today? Six words in the same sentence -- "the Fed calls an emergency meeting."
- so why did the Dow drop 800 points today? The Fed makes an emergency cut that is as big as any Fed cut recently.
Flip-flop. I'm flip flopping.
I'm getting tired of Bernie Sanders and his supporters (and others) complaining that the Democrat Party may "steal" the election from Bernie. Heeeeyyy......Bernie -- Bernie isn't even a Democrat. He is a self-described independent and not a Democrat. He should have run as an independent, in the first place, and especially if he thought the Democrat Party might turn on him. I hope the Democrat Party does stop Bernie. He's not a democrat. He's a socialist. He's a communist.
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Corona Virus Update
Final update for March 3, 2020. Four most important data points:
- growth factor: turns up again, but not by much; just disappointing;
- total deaths, change in total, d/d: 3% -- it had been 2% for the past week (and 1% on February 26
- daily deaths, daily change, d/d: an increase of 27% after being a minus 8 percent yesterday;
- US: total increases; more deaths but all in Washington state
- country highlight:
- Italy: still a disaster.
- Iran: still a disaster.
- Empties prisons in desperate bid to stop coronavirus.
- Italy: 79 / 2,502 = 3.2% fatality rate
- Iran: 77 / 2,336 = 3.3% fatality rate which suggests total cases much higher than being reported
This is an incredible interview:
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:
"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed.
The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]
China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Bottom line:Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
- quarantines work
- fast and draconian quarantines imperative
- test kits critical for make quarantines effective
- the CDC restricted test kits to their own lab; it took Trump to get that turned around; first out of the stable -- state of Nebraska has in-state test kits that provide answers within six hours vs 24 - 48 hours for results from CDC;
- "defunding" CDC had nothing to do with their slowness to respond; it had to do with their long-term regulations that have only gotten worse in the Deep State mentality;
- CDC is a government regulating bureaucracy;
- and, yes, I'm politicizing this; trying to set the record straight. My comments will likely become more harsh.
- I experienced the same problem when I was practicing medicine in the United States.
Rolling Stone supports Trump on the coronavirus story. Now, why would Rolling Stone support Trump on this issue. Rolling Stone knows that panic/hysteria will shut down concerts, and shutting down concerts will "kill" artists, and eventually affect Rolling Stone's bottom line.
Updates
Later, 10:28 a.m. Central Time: coronavirus update --
- it's still early in the day, but right now, things look pretty good:
- France: reporting a new death; brings French total to four deaths out of 204 cases (2% fatality rate)
- China: well below 50 new deaths; 33 new deaths; new cases -- and this is remarkable: only 126 new cases.
- South Korea: still reeling; 851 new cases; but only 6 new deaths. 34 / 5,186 = 0.7% fatality rate.
- Iran: a whopping 835 new cases; parliament infected; we're starting to see reason for their outbreak; 77 total deaths with eleven new deaths; 77 / 2,336 = 3.3% fatality rate. And the rate has to be a lot less; deaths are pretty easy to count; cases are way under-reported.
- Italy: this is of most interest. Right now -- but it will change by end of the day -- zero new cases; no new deaths. 52 / 2,036 = 2.6% fatality rate.
- US: three new cases; now at 103 total cases; no new deaths. 6 / 103 = almost a 6% fatality rate. Interesting, huh?
Original Post
Coronavirus, general:
- Disease is bad, but coronavirus has some positive aspects. It has exposed the CDC for what it is: a government regulatory bureaucracy, slow to react. Chris Hayes, MSNBC, stumbled upon the problem but did not follow up. He would have been nominated for a Grammy had he followed up on this.
- Speaking of the CDC, the governor of Texas is furious with how the CDC has fouled up testing.
- The numbers during the day, yesterday, March 3, 2020, looked really grim, but when the final numbers were posted, the percentages and the trends looked really good.
- I saw this when I was practicing medicine and was considering certain diagnoses
- certain test kits were only available at the CDC; one had to send specimens to the CDC (hopefully not lost in transit, and hopefully "survived" the postal system especially if they needed to be kept frozen);
- it was a minimum of a 48-hour turnaround time
- so, back to coronavirus;
- it is clear that the best way to handle this, as one would handle any infectious disease outbreak: quarantine, fast and draconian;
- the only way to make the quarantine work: fast, and accurate diagnoses
- the best way for fast and accurate diagnoses: test kits
- CDC: 48-hour turnaround; then the CDC, under duress, agreed to release kits to states;
- it turns out that CDC could not meet demand
- and, then it turns out that states like Nebraska had a test kit that would give results in 6 hours but not allowed to be used due to CDC regulations
- Trump got that fixed -- immediately -- mainstream media won't report this
- China: leveling off a bit? One can only hope. Only 126 new cases; 33 new deaths. I use "50" as the threshold.
- South Korea: oh my goodness -- 851 new cases; no new deaths, surprising
- Iran: 835 new cases;
- Italy: reports no new cases but the day is early; interestingly, it is earlier in the day in Iran than it is in Italy, so we'll see;
- it appears the disease continues to be politicized, hard to say whether Americans reacting; best gauge: whether the theme parks stay open; apparently Disney is still open in Japan; speaks volumes;
- key data point Americans may react to: number of new deaths; not new numbers unless really excessive; "good news," I suppose that one could say all deaths in the US were in Washington state;
- Biden: get's Beto's endorsement in Texas; will take all our guns away; not a good move;
- Bernie: it's clear that Democrat party got to Klobuchar, Buttigieg to withdraw; throw support behind Biden;
- Steyer: it will be interesting if he fades away
- Bloomberg: predicts a brokered convention, and one he can win;
- Hillary: ordered deposed by a federal judge; will be represented by the federal government, i.e., the Trump administration. Can she appeal. Yes. DOJ / Attorney General would have to submit the appeal. Statute of limitations has run out on e-mail server controversy; lying under oath is her risk. Re-calculating. Re-calculating. Re-calculating.
