Monday, February 4, 2019

A Rose By Any Other Name Is Still A Rose -- Tunnel? This Is A Pipeline -- February 4, 2019

"Political correctness" ruined the Super Bowl LIII ads; now political correctness over in Norway.

Next to "ranking" Norwegian/Scandinavian names, this might be the best story of the day. Sent to me by a reader. I would have definitely missed it. I don't follow:
  • fjiord stories
  • floating tunnel stories
  • ABC News

With that said, here's the link.
Highway E39 in Norway is one of the most beautiful drives in the world, hugging the country's rugged west coast from Kristiansand to Trondheim.
It is 684 miles of unending scenery, including rivers and lakes, waterfalls and mountains and numerous fjords. 
But if you look carefully at a road map, E39 is something of a dotted line. Each of the breaks occurs at seven fjords -- where drivers must put their cars on a ferry to get across.
This stop-and-start, sea-and-land journey takes 21 hours.
But the government of Norway has a plan.
"Ferry-free E39" would cut the driving time almost in half with a series of bridges and tunnels across the fjords.
Video at the link.

I'm waiting for Elon Musk to weigh in on this one.


As long as I've rambled this long, some personal notes: my grandfather came from Trondheim.

From another site:

"Paul" is/was my paternal grandfather. Born in Inderøy Municipality, he always called it "Trondheim." He homesteaded near Newell, SD, that "dry, flat, empty northwestern corn of South Dakota.

*********************************** 
The Physics Page 

Quick! Without looking, who coined the term, "black hole"? I was sure I knew. I was wrong.

From Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman, James Gleick, c. 1992, page 94:
Compared to the hydrogen atom, the stark kernel with which [Niels] Bohr had begun his quantum revolution, the uranium atom was a monster, the heaviest atom in nature, bulked out with 92 protons and 140-odd neutrons, so scarce in the cosmos that hydrogen atoms outnumber [uranium] by seventeen trillion to one, and unstable, given to decaying at quantum mechanically unpredictable moments down a chain of lighter elements or -- this was the extraordinary news that kept Bohr at his portable blackboard all though the North Atlantic voyage [from Copenhagen to Princeton] -- splitting, when slugged by a neutron, into odd pairs of smaller atoms, barium and krypton or tellurium and zirconium, plus a bonus of new neutrons and free energy.
Krypton. Who knew?

From wiki: Superman is a fictional superhero created by writer Jerry Siegel and artist Joe Shuster. He first appeared in Action Comics #1, a comic book published on April 18, 1938.
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Oasis To Report Huge Well In Early May -- February 4, 2019

The Aagvik Wells

  • 34811, 685, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 15T, Banks, t11/18; cum 174K 3/20; cum 198K 8/21; cum 204K 6/22;
  • 34239, 605, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 9B, 50 stages; 6 million lbs; Banks, t12/18; cum 233K 3/20; note the small amount of proppant for a middle Bakken well; that's the amount of proppant one would expect for a Three Forks well; cum 273K 8/21; cum 285K 6/22;
  • 34238, 640, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 8T, Banks, t12/18; cum 156K 3/20; cum 178K 8/21; cum 185K 6/22;
  • 34237, 576, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 7B, Banks, t12/18; cum 220K 3/20; cum 256K 8/21; cum 268K 6/22;
  • 34156, 853, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, Banks, t3/19; cum 214K 3/20; cum 265K 6/22;
  • 34155, 537, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 13BX, Banks, t2/19; cum 272K 3/20; cum 332K 6/22;
  • 34090, 150, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 13-26 12T, Banks, t2/19; cum 209K 3/20; cum 265K 6/22;
  • 34089, 532, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 13-26 11B, Banks, t1/19; cum 252K 3/20; cum 307K 6/22;
  • 34088, 645, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 13XX, Banks, t2/19; cum 272K 3/20; cum 238K 6/22;
  • 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 13-26 10T, Banks, t1/19; cum 196K 3/20; cum 362K 6/22;
  • 34040, 613, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 6T, Banks, t1/18; cum 169K 3/20; cum 197K 6/22;
  • 34039, 810, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, Banks, t12/19; cum 226K 3/20; cum 268K 6/22;
  • 34038, dry, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 4T, Banks, --
  • 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, Banks, t11/18; cum 316K 3/20; cum 362K 6/22;
  • 34036, 543, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 2TX, Banks, t11/18; cum 152K 3/20; cum 181K 6/22;
  • 18249, 702, Oasis, Lundeen 4-26H, Banks, t6/10; cum 229K 3/20; cum 237K 6/22;
  • 17986, 501, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 1-35H, Banks, t12/09; cum 237K 3/20; cum 243K 8/21; cum 248K 6/22;
Huge jump in production, #17986:

BAKKEN8-201931135211962431983395230
BAKKEN7-2019311255149325501015798470
BAKKEN6-201930187617112405981095100
BAKKEN5-201912660563825341932890
BAKKEN4-20193011474117861040645836455360
BAKKEN3-2019311451714326110354604445734310
BAKKEN2-20192813631136161079242137352426615
BAKKEN1-20197368033563350981159313810
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201824470559100102875632

Updates

May 16 2019: another big Aagvik well was reported today --
  • 34239, 605, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 9B, 50 stages; 6 million lbs; Banks, t12/18; cum 233K 3/20;  note the small amount of proppant for a middle Bakken well; that's the amount of proppant one would expect for a Three Forks well;
#34239 is another huge Aagvik well --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20193123717239771475274977718122948
BAKKEN2-2019282825428375167248863987805638
BAKKEN1-201931305143071428399908557470415934
BAKKEN12-20183127474272973883264659064659
BAKKEN11-20181692268756274136260626

May 14, 2019: more Aagvik wells reporting -
  • 34238, 640, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 8T, Banks, t12/18; cum 156K 3/20;
  • 34237, 576, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 7B, Banks, t12/18; cum 220K 3/20;
May 5, 2019: Aagvik wells coming off the confidential list this week.

March 9, 2019: see this post for update.

Original Post

I'm going to have to start a page ranking "best" Norwegian names. We might have to start with Aagvik but Kjorstad would be a close second. The best name, of course might be a surname with either of these letters:
  • å
  • ø 
But I digress.

Huge thanks to the reader who alerted me to this well:
  • 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 BX, Banks, t11/18; cum 316K 3/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201922980396491362841640379103501
BAKKEN5-20193112577125891269447957449832652
BAKKEN4-20193023003229972260486149838751962
BAKKEN3-20193131769322602737886655839272728
BAKKEN2-2019284380643880269851406911379602440
BAKKEN1-20193153601537823361615805014382313905
BAKKEN12-20183159173590194172914768310086046501
BAKKEN11-2018233102530408326071051082813076739

Note: this is a 50K_well (tagged). The reader also notes that this is "section line well" -- the reader suggests that Oasis often uses a bit more proppants on such wells. 

According to the NDIC, this well will come off the confidential list on May 5, 2019.

The Banks oil field is tracked here. 

The graphic:



Off-line: #17986. I'll bet a six-pack of tuna (for the Kat) and/or a six-pack of Coke (for Steve) and/or a new English dictionary (for one reader in New Mexico) that this well will show a huge bump in production once it comes off line. [It did.]

The wells in the graphic:
  • 17986, 501, Oasis, Aagvik 1-35H, Banks, t12/09; cum 232K 10/19; came off line 7/18; back on line as of 1/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-201930187617112405981095100
    BAKKEN5-201912660563825341932890
    BAKKEN4-20193011474117861040645836455360
    BAKKEN3-2019311451714326110354604445734310
    BAKKEN2-20192813631136161079242137352426615
    BAKKEN1-20197368033563350981159313810
    BAKKEN12-20180000000
    BAKKEN11-20180000000
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-20180000000
    BAKKEN8-20180000000
    BAKKEN7-201824470559100102875632
    BAKKEN6-20182052658701274105222
    BAKKEN5-20180000000
    BAKKEN4-20181535429119094277517
    BAKKEN3-2018318168691802176184224
  • 34038, dry, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 4T,
  • 34811, 685, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 15T, t11/18; cum 158K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182315544748
11-2018133710
  • 34036, 543, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 2TX, 50 stages, 4 million lbs; Banks, t11/18; cum 139K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182053230468
11-2018155118378
  • 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35BX, t11/18; cum 296K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-201859019100860
11-20183040828130
  • 34039, 810, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, t12/18; cum 206K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182610758419
11-20181635511170
  • 34040, 613, Oasis, Aagik 5298 41-35 6T, Banks, t11/18; cum 155K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20192285073685
1-20192153462332
12-20182057542041
11-2018140156195
  • 34039, see above, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20192537687240
1-20192497879018
12-20182610758419
11-20181635511170
  •  34037, see above, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201943880137960
1-201953782143823
12-201859019100860
11-20183040828130
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Norway's Problems -- Won't Amount To A Hill Of Beans -- February 4, 2019

Let's re-write that headline: Norway to see biggest year-on-year increase in production output since the 1980s.

Norway: it's a non-story but Bloomberg is milking it for what it's worth. Link here.
Norway has built a reputation as one of the calmest and most predictable corners of the global oil industry, but lately it’s been full of surprises.
During the worst downturn in a generation, from 2014 to 2016, companies would regularly exceed official forecasts as oil production rose in defiance of falling prices. More recently, with crude surging back to multiyear highs, they’ve run into trouble.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate now expects output to fall to a 31-year low in 2019, with production expected to be almost 60 million barrels short of its previous forecast for this year and in 2018. That’s 80,000 barrels a day less than expected.
Bloomberg then looks at "what happened?"
  • maintenance
  • glitches, delays
  • hubris and tiny fields
And then this, but you have to read to the end of the article:
To be sure, the abrupt slump in Norway’s oil production is temporary. The Nordic country will enjoy a spectacular bump in oil production in 2020 thanks to Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup field, which is scheduled to start production in November this year.
With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.
This is one of those stories where the millennial thought she saw a good story but then had to admit:
With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.
I was mislead also some months ago when I fell for the "31-year" headline.

*********************************
The Art Page 

Spuds.

Sophia drew a cartoon a few weeks ago to "record" her two days in ski school and her one day of skiing with her Dad at Angel Fire, east of Taos, New Mexico, this past Christmas.






It should be noted that her legs/skis are straight downhill; parallel; and, proportionate to her body size; compare with her dad.

I found the drawing among some discarded paper when we got home. I do not know who annotated the drawing; it was not me; that's not my handwriting and it's not Grammy's. It looks like it might have been Olivia's printing.
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Morning Note: February 4, 2019

The wall: tea leaves suggest negotiators have found a solution. 

OPEC: oil princes are fighting for survival. Good luck. 

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: data posted here.

Active rigs:

$53.632/4/201902/04/201802/04/201702/04/201602/04/2015
Active Rigs64584044140

RBN Energy: part 3, structural shifts propel US gas demand. Even more so after the polar vortex. Archived.
Lower-48 natural gas demand surged in 2018, managing to offset ballooning production volumes and putting the gas market on the razor’s edge going into this winter.
Demand growth occurred across all domestic sectors as well as export markets, but was led by increased demand from power generators.
Some of that was weather-related. However, there also was a level-shift up in demand on a per-degree basis, meaning more gas was burned than historically at the same temperatures, signaling a gain in gas market share. What were the drivers, and can we expect this growth pace to continue? Today, we take a closer look at the demand components behind the recent growth trends.
The Lower-48 gas supply-demand balance in 2018 was especially tight. The combination of the tighter balance and an enormous deficit in storage compared with 2017 and the five-year average had the market unsettled going into the coldest months of this winter. At the time, we looked at the annual average balance for the January-November period in 2018 versus the prior years going back to 2010.
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Initial Production Numbers For Wells Coming Off Confidential List Has Been Posted; Sixteen Wells; Four DUCs -- February 4, 2019

Monday, February 4, 2019: 18 wells for the month; 120 wells for the quarter
  • 34455, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-3, Capa, no production data,
  • 34454, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-2, Capa, no production data,
  • 34349, SI/NC, XTO, Walton Federal 41x-19F2, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 34249, SI/NC, BR, Raider 1B MBH, Twin Valley, no production data,
  • 34200, 2,236, CLR, Norway 6-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 55K 12/18;
  • 34045, SI/NC, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, no production data,
  • 29999, 550, Slawson, Shakafox 4-28-21MLH, Big Bend, producing, look how old this permit is, t11/18; cum --
Sunday, February 3, 2019: 11 wells for the month; 113 wells for the quarter
  • 35107, 37, Resource Energy Can-Am, Haugland 2116-163-98 1H, Blooming Prairie, a Madison well; t8/18; cum --;
  • 34769, 572, Liberty Resources, Martin C 158-93-11-2-3MBH, Enget Lake, t8/18; cum 62K 12/18;
  • 34456, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-4, Capa, no production data,
  • 34348, SI/NC, XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19BXC, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 34044, drl, MRO, Rafter X 44-35H, Bailey, no production data,
  • 33020, 505, EOG, Fertile 84-0701H, Parshall, a very nice well;  t8/18; cum 103K 12/18;
  • 33019, 1,341, EOG, Fertile 85-0701H, Parshall, a very nice well for a Fertile well; t8/18; cum 102K 12/18;
Saturday, February 2, 2019: 4 wells for the month; 106 wells for the quarter
  • 34457, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-5,  Capa, no production data,
  • 33021, 1,062, EOG, Fertile 86-0701H, Parshall, t8/18; cum 91K 12/18;
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