Monday, February 4, 2019
Sunday, February 3, 2019
Global Warming Hits The Bakken -- Again -- February 3, 2019
... and closes the entire northern half of the state:
Nothing About The Bakken -- February 3, 2019
The Way We Were: the movie I love. The movie I cannot watch. 1973. Robert Redford. Barbra Streisand. Was it not the best? And it's playing on TCM right now. Opposite the PGA tournament, TPC Scottsdale. Lead-in to the Super Bowl. What's not to like. Even though I can't watch that movie any more, it's on on my "top shelf" list. It's of the same "mold" as Dr Zhivago and Lawrence of Arabia. Favorite movies, top ten movies, that I cannot watch many of them any more. I'm not sure "why" I can still watch Casablanca and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
PGA: Paul Azinger replaces Johnny Miller as NBC color for PGA tournaments. Can one say "color" any more?
Fantastic Voyage: on TCM last night. I had never seen the movie before. If I have, I've forgotten. Released in 1966. Probably got to Williston, ND, in 1969. LOL. Raquel Welch? Yawn. I recognized Donald Pleasence but couldn't place him. Finally, I did. Columbo: Any Old Sport in a Storm. Coincidence. Also came out in 1973.
Marie Kondō: the family has a graphic novel -- along the lines of The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing, Marie Kondō, c. 2014. I read some of it the other day while waiting to take Sophia to school. She calls it school, but in fact its pre-pre-K. And she loves it. But I digress. I learned enough in a few pages, to throw out two boxes of clothes/odd-and-ends in storage and I completely emptied one drawer in my four-drawer chest of drawers. I have only one chest of drawers so I decluttered 25%.
Christmas gifts: family members got me any number of bicycle accessories this year. They do that every year. I often put these accessories aside where they end up cluttering the floor, a drawer, a shelf. Today, I put all the accessories on the bikes. I have several bikes so plenty of places to put all the accessories. Some accessories have instructions. I use to save those, file the away. No longer. i-photograph them and file them inside the virtual bicycle folder on the virtual desktop.
Amazon. Lives up to its name. From wiki:
AMZN: wow, I wish Jeff Bezos/Amazon would do what Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway did with BBK: A and B shares. AMZN, less than $350/share less than five years ago is now over $1,600/share.
Echo Dot/Alexa: incredible.
Spuds.
Sophia drew this in January, 2019. This was the first year she was ever on skis. She took two days of lessons at Angel Fire, and then skied with her dad and her two older sisters.
Months later she still knows how to ski ("french fries") and how to stop ("pizza").
The other day on her bicycle, when I was teaching her to brake, I asked her how she "braked" when she skied? Her answer: "pizza."
PGA: Paul Azinger replaces Johnny Miller as NBC color for PGA tournaments. Can one say "color" any more?
Fantastic Voyage: on TCM last night. I had never seen the movie before. If I have, I've forgotten. Released in 1966. Probably got to Williston, ND, in 1969. LOL. Raquel Welch? Yawn. I recognized Donald Pleasence but couldn't place him. Finally, I did. Columbo: Any Old Sport in a Storm. Coincidence. Also came out in 1973.
Marie Kondō: the family has a graphic novel -- along the lines of The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing, Marie Kondō, c. 2014. I read some of it the other day while waiting to take Sophia to school. She calls it school, but in fact its pre-pre-K. And she loves it. But I digress. I learned enough in a few pages, to throw out two boxes of clothes/odd-and-ends in storage and I completely emptied one drawer in my four-drawer chest of drawers. I have only one chest of drawers so I decluttered 25%.
Christmas gifts: family members got me any number of bicycle accessories this year. They do that every year. I often put these accessories aside where they end up cluttering the floor, a drawer, a shelf. Today, I put all the accessories on the bikes. I have several bikes so plenty of places to put all the accessories. Some accessories have instructions. I use to save those, file the away. No longer. i-photograph them and file them inside the virtual bicycle folder on the virtual desktop.
Amazon. Lives up to its name. From wiki:
In 1998, Jeff Bezos, founder, owner, and CEO of Amazon.com, struck a deal with Needham and other principal shareholders to buy IMDb outright for approximately $55 million[9] and attach it to Amazon as a subsidiary, private company.[10] This gave IMDb the ability to pay the shareholders salaries for their work, while Amazon.com would be able to use IMDb as an advertising resource for selling DVDs and videotapes.Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
AMZN: wow, I wish Jeff Bezos/Amazon would do what Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway did with BBK: A and B shares. AMZN, less than $350/share less than five years ago is now over $1,600/share.
Echo Dot/Alexa: incredible.
******************************
Skiing Downhill With Daddy
Spuds.
Sophia drew this in January, 2019. This was the first year she was ever on skis. She took two days of lessons at Angel Fire, and then skied with her dad and her two older sisters.
Months later she still knows how to ski ("french fries") and how to stop ("pizza").
The other day on her bicycle, when I was teaching her to brake, I asked her how she "braked" when she skied? Her answer: "pizza."
Too Many EVs? -- February 3, 2019
Updates
February 9, 2019: profit margins on EVs incredibly small; if it weren't for government mandates, auto manufacturers would not be making them.
Original Post
Over at oilprice: Are automakers overestimating EV demand?
Electric cars were the stars of the Detroit Auto Show this year and they have been garnering a lot of attention from the media generally amid increasingly urgent talk about climate change and how the world is failing in the fight against it. Every self-respecting automaker has at least one EV in the pipeline. The biggest ones have several. And all of these new EVs are scheduled to hit the market in the next few years. A pileup may be coming.
The pileup could be “of epic proportions” as AlixPartners warned in a study.
By the end of this year alone analysts expect almost a dozen new EVs to make their appearance in showrooms across the United States. Some of these will be direct competitors of Tesla, which currently boasts an impressive 83 percent of the U.S. battery electric car market.The other side of the coin: if you have a home, a 220-volt outlet in the garage, at least two other ICE vehicles, and are in the market for a new (additional) car this may be the year to consider an EV. Prices could plummet if millions of EVs come to the market, and American only "need" hundreds of thousands.
The “threat for Tesla” angle in EV reporting is a popular one and indeed a 83-percent market share is an unsustainable one in any industry. But with Tesla’s brand loyalty, concerns about the company’s future sales may be premature. What is not premature is a worry about that pileup AlixPartners warned about.
The world’s biggest carmakers are pouring billions into electric vehicles motivated by government incentives and strategies envisaging the phasing out of ICE vehicles in some markets. From the pro-EV perspective, the time is just right to launch as many electric cars as one can design and manufacture. All the big carmakers have developed EV manufacturing platforms and are preparing to put them to good use. Millions of EVs are coming to the market. There is just one problem with that: actual sales statistics.
Total number of EVs sold in the US in 2018: 360,000.
Worldwide: 2 million.
Epping Wells Have Been Updated -- February 3, 2019
I've been updating the Epping oil field wells but I still have a lot of work to do on this field.
This is an interesting field. It seemed to have started out "slow" but it's becoming an incredible field.
For example: look at these incredible Kraken wells.
I've mentioned this before on the blog: it's my hunch that operators often under-promise what a field might offer. Call it the "Disneyland effect." The operators have to thread the needle. They need to "talk up" their assets to generate investor interest, but they are watched closely by the SEC. On the other hand, they don't want to get too far in front of their headlights and drive up lease rates and acquisition costs.
But if one remembers, one of the first CBR terminals in the Bakken was in the Epping oil field. That should have been a big hint.
Even more interesting for me: during the Bakken boom I drove my dad out to Epping numerous times; the field never seemed particularly active. My hunch is that the field is very, very active right now.
It reminds me a little bit of Bailey oil field, although Bailey at 160+ sections is much, much bigger than the 30+ section Epping oil field.
So, give me a few days, and I will get the Epping oil field completed.
This is an interesting field. It seemed to have started out "slow" but it's becoming an incredible field.
For example: look at these incredible Kraken wells.
I've mentioned this before on the blog: it's my hunch that operators often under-promise what a field might offer. Call it the "Disneyland effect." The operators have to thread the needle. They need to "talk up" their assets to generate investor interest, but they are watched closely by the SEC. On the other hand, they don't want to get too far in front of their headlights and drive up lease rates and acquisition costs.
But if one remembers, one of the first CBR terminals in the Bakken was in the Epping oil field. That should have been a big hint.
Even more interesting for me: during the Bakken boom I drove my dad out to Epping numerous times; the field never seemed particularly active. My hunch is that the field is very, very active right now.
It reminds me a little bit of Bailey oil field, although Bailey at 160+ sections is much, much bigger than the 30+ section Epping oil field.
So, give me a few days, and I will get the Epping oil field completed.
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